BofA sees Brent above $150 if Iran disruptions last; the U.S. emergency oil reserve is down 30% in a year

Bank of America raised its oil forecast on Tuesday and warned that Brent crude could climb above $150 a barrel if supply disruptions tied to the war with Iran run into next spring or oil infrastructure takes more damage, CNBC reported. MarketWatch also reported the call. The bank now expects Brent to reach $95 in the second half of this year, up from $83, and to average about $80 in 2027.

Prices barely moved on the note. Brent was down 69 cents at $99.65 and West Texas Intermediate was 27 cents lower at $95.51 at 1:52 p.m. ET, according to CNBC, after President Trump told the United Nations he believes Iran will make a deal "right after the election." CNBC said prices are down more than 3% this week but still up more than 10% on the month.

Why the forecast and the tail risk point in different directions

BofA's central case is lower prices next year. The warning is about how little room is left if something else breaks. Commodity strategist Francisco Blanch estimated that at least 350 million barrels have been drawn from global above-ground oil inventories since they peaked in March, leaving stocks about 200 million barrels short of record seasonal lows. The bank estimates disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz peaked at about 14 million barrels a day and have recently run at 4 million to 8 million.

The number behind the number: where America's cushion went

The Energy Information Administration's latest weekly data, for the week ending September 11, shows how that squeeze looks in the U.S., and it is not where most people would guess.

Commercial crude tanks are actually fuller than a year ago. The drawdown has come out of the government's emergency reserve, down nearly 30% in a year, and out of diesel. That is the part of the barrel consumers and businesses are paying for: diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon, according to AAA figures cited by CNBC.

It also means the tool Washington would normally use to cap a price spike has less left in it than a year ago. The next EIA weekly report is due Wednesday.

A diesel export ban is now formally under review

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is "examining whether it's feasible in terms of the overall refining capacity and whether a full or partial ban would work," CNBC reported. Trump said a decision would come "fast one way or another." Last week the idea was a proposal from some lawmakers; it is now a question inside the administration. We laid out the export figures and who a ban would affect in our earlier report.

Refiners, the companies that profit from selling that diesel abroad, slipped. Valero was down 1.3% and Marathon Petroleum 1.1% at 2:50 p.m. ET, according to Nasdaq data, after Jefferies cut both to hold from buy, saying valuations look stretched after big gains, Seeking Alpha reported.

For fleet operators, farms and anyone buying diesel by the truckload, the export decision is the near-term variable to watch, more than the Brent price. For traders, the risk BofA describes is one-sided: thin inventories mean a supply surprise moves prices further than it would with full tanks. Follow prices on our crude oil chart, and see what record diesel means for a trucker, a landscaper and a farm.

Sources: CNBC; MarketWatch; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Seeking Alpha; Nasdaq. Inventory comparison calculated by The Company Chronicle from EIA data. This is market information, not investment advice.