Live · New York time
Economic calendar
The releases and central-bank decisions that can move currencies, bonds, stocks, gold and crypto this week. Tap any event for our trader's guide: what it measures and how markets have tended to react when it comes in above or below forecast.
Sunday, September 20
🇯🇵 JPY Bank Holiday · ·
What it is: Markets in this country are closed or thin, which can mean lower liquidity.
🇬🇧 GBP Rightmove HPI m/m · -2.0%
If it comes in higher than forecast
The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
No consensus forecast published; markets compare the result with the previous reading.
🇳🇿 NZD Credit Card Spending y/y · 5.3%
If it comes in higher than forecast
The NZD tends to strengthen (NZD/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The NZD tends to weaken (NZD/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
No consensus forecast published; markets compare the result with the previous reading.
Monday, September 21
🇪🇺 EUR German Buba Monthly Report · ·
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇨🇦 CAD BOC Gov Macklem Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The CAD tends to strengthen (USD/CAD lower) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The CAD tends to weaken (USD/CAD higher) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇦🇺 AUD RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The AUD tends to strengthen (AUD/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The AUD tends to weaken (AUD/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇯🇵 JPY Bank Holiday · ·
What it is: Markets in this country are closed or thin, which can mean lower liquidity.
🇦🇺 AUD RBA Gov Bullock Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The AUD tends to strengthen (AUD/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The AUD tends to weaken (AUD/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
Tuesday, September 22
🇬🇧 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 15.2B 1.8B
If it comes in higher than forecast
The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -33 -25
If it comes in higher than forecast
The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD ADP Weekly Employment Change · 16.3K
What it is: Private payroll estimate from payroll processor ADP, released two days before the official jobs report.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
No consensus forecast published; markets compare the result with the previous reading.
🇺🇸 USD President Trump Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR Consumer Confidence -16 -16
What it is: Survey of how households feel about their finances and the economy, a lead on spending.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 2 4
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR German Buba President Nagel Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD API Weekly Statistical Bulletin · ·
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇦🇺 AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI · 52.0
What it is: Survey of factory purchasing managers. Above 50 means activity is expanding, below 50 contracting.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The AUD tends to strengthen (AUD/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The AUD tends to weaken (AUD/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
No consensus forecast published; markets compare the result with the previous reading.
🇦🇺 AUD Flash Services PMI · 52.9
What it is: Survey of service-sector businesses, the largest part of most economies. Above 50 means expansion.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The AUD tends to strengthen (AUD/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The AUD tends to weaken (AUD/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
No consensus forecast published; markets compare the result with the previous reading.
🇯🇵 JPY Bank Holiday · ·
What it is: Markets in this country are closed or thin, which can mean lower liquidity.
Wednesday, September 23
🇪🇺 EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.9 51.5
What it is: Survey of factory purchasing managers. Above 50 means activity is expanding, below 50 contracting.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR French Flash Services PMI 48.3 48.4
What it is: Survey of service-sector businesses, the largest part of most economies. Above 50 means expansion.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.1 54.1
What it is: Survey of factory purchasing managers. Above 50 means activity is expanding, below 50 contracting.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR German Flash Services PMI 49.9 48.5
What it is: Survey of service-sector businesses, the largest part of most economies. Above 50 means expansion.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.8
What it is: Survey of factory purchasing managers. Above 50 means activity is expanding, below 50 contracting.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR Flash Services PMI 51.4 51.7
What it is: Survey of service-sector businesses, the largest part of most economies. Above 50 means expansion.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.5
What it is: Survey of factory purchasing managers. Above 50 means activity is expanding, below 50 contracting.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP Flash Services PMI 52.0 52.8
What it is: Survey of service-sector businesses, the largest part of most economies. Above 50 means expansion.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR German 30-y Bond Auction · 3.90|2.4
What it is: Government bond sale. Weak demand can push yields higher.
🇺🇸 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.6 53.2
What it is: Survey of factory purchasing managers. Above 50 means activity is expanding, below 50 contracting.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Flash Services PMI 55.8 56.8
What it is: Survey of service-sector businesses, the largest part of most economies. Above 50 means expansion.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Barr Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.7M -0.6M
What it is: Weekly U.S. crude stockpiles. A larger-than-expected build tends to weigh on oil prices, a draw tends to support them.
If it comes in higher than forecast
Bigger build than forecast: oil prices tend to fall, often weighing on the Canadian dollar.
If it comes in lower than forecast
Smaller build or a draw: oil prices tend to rise, often supporting the Canadian dollar.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇯🇵 JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.0 55.1
What it is: Survey of factory purchasing managers. Above 50 means activity is expanding, below 50 contracting.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The JPY tends to strengthen (USD/JPY lower) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The JPY tends to weaken (USD/JPY higher) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇦🇺 AUD Employment Change 21.5K -15.8K
If it comes in higher than forecast
The AUD tends to strengthen (AUD/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The AUD tends to weaken (AUD/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇦🇺 AUD Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
What it is: The share of the labor force out of work and looking for a job.
If it comes in higher than forecast
This counts as weaker data. The AUD tends to weaken (AUD/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
This counts as stronger data. The AUD tends to strengthen (AUD/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇦🇺 AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence · -19
If it comes in higher than forecast
The AUD tends to strengthen (AUD/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The AUD tends to weaken (AUD/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
No consensus forecast published; markets compare the result with the previous reading.
Thursday, September 24
🇨🇭 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment · ·
If it comes in higher than forecast
The CHF tends to strengthen (USD/CHF lower) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The CHF tends to weaken (USD/CHF higher) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇨🇭 CHF SNB Policy Rate 0.00% 0.00%
What it is: The central bank's interest-rate decision. Changes, or surprises in the message, move the currency and bond yields directly.
Hawkish surprise
Higher rate than expected, or a more hawkish message: The CHF tends to jump (USD/CHF lower) and short-term yields rise.
Dovish surprise
Lower rate than expected, or a more dovish message: The CHF tends to drop (USD/CHF higher) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇨🇭 CHF SNB Press Conference · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The CHF tends to strengthen (USD/CHF lower) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The CHF tends to weaken (USD/CHF higher) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin · ·
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR German ifo Business Climate 89.1 88.8
What it is: German business and investor sentiment survey, a closely watched read on Europe's largest economy.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP MPC Member Dhingra Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP CBI Realized Sales -42 -48
If it comes in higher than forecast
The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇨🇦 CAD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.5% 0.5%
What it is: Spending at stores and online, a direct read on consumer demand.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The CAD tends to strengthen (USD/CAD lower) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The CAD tends to weaken (USD/CAD higher) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇨🇦 CAD Retail Sales m/m -0.8% 0.6%
What it is: Spending at stores and online, a direct read on consumer demand.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The CAD tends to strengthen (USD/CAD lower) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The CAD tends to weaken (USD/CAD higher) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Unemployment Claims 201K 196K
If it comes in higher than forecast
This counts as weaker data. The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
If it comes in lower than forecast
This counts as stronger data. The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Current Account -258B -227B
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Hammack Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇨🇳 CNY CB Leading Index m/m · -0.3%
If it comes in higher than forecast
The CNY tends to strengthen (USD/CNH lower) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The CNY tends to weaken (USD/CNH higher) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
No consensus forecast published; markets compare the result with the previous reading.
🇪🇺 EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -13.5 -13.2
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP MPC Member Breeden Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP MPC Member Lombardelli Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD New Home Sales 615K 607K
What it is: Housing activity, sensitive to mortgage rates and a signal for construction and the broader economy.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Paulson Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD President Trump Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Natural Gas Storage 50B 44B
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -16 -14
What it is: Survey of how households feel about their finances and the economy, a lead on spending.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇨🇳 CNY Bank Holiday · ·
What it is: Markets in this country are closed or thin, which can mean lower liquidity.
🇺🇸 USD President Trump Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
Friday, September 25 Today
🇯🇵 JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 1.5% 1.6%
What it is: Consumer price inflation excluding food and energy, the measure central banks watch most closely for underlying price pressure.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The JPY tends to strengthen (USD/JPY lower) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The JPY tends to weaken (USD/JPY higher) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR German GfK Consumer Climate -27.1 -26.6
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.5% 3.4%
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇪🇺 EUR Private Loans y/y 3.2% 3.1%
If it comes in higher than forecast
The EUR tends to strengthen (EUR/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The EUR tends to weaken (EUR/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇬🇧 GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks · ·
What it is: Remarks from a central bank official. Markets listen for hints about the next rate move.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The GBP tends to strengthen (GBP/USD higher) and bond yields rise.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The GBP tends to weaken (GBP/USD lower) and yields fall.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% 0.4%
What it is: Orders for long-lasting goods such as machinery, a gauge of business investment.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.3% 1.1%
What it is: Orders for long-lasting goods such as machinery, a gauge of business investment.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Schmid Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 47.4 47.8
What it is: Survey of how households feel about their finances and the economy, a lead on spending.
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and yields climb. Stocks can go either way: stronger growth helps earnings, but it also raises the odds of higher rates.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop on bets for easier Fed policy. Gold often gains; stocks can rally on lower rates or fall on growth worries.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
🇺🇸 USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations · 4.6%
If it comes in higher than forecast
The dollar tends to rise and Treasury yields climb as rate-hike odds increase. Stocks, gold and crypto often slip.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The dollar tends to fall and yields drop as rate-cut hopes build. Stocks, gold and crypto often rally.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
No consensus forecast published; markets compare the result with the previous reading.
🇺🇸 USD FOMC Member Hammack Speaks · ·
What it is: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and statement, the biggest scheduled driver of U.S. rates, the dollar and stocks.
Hawkish tone
More hawkish than expected (worried about inflation, open to higher rates): The dollar tends to strengthen and bond yields rise. Stocks, gold and crypto often come under pressure.
Dovish tone
More dovish than expected (open to cuts, worried about growth): The dollar tends to weaken and yields fall. Stocks, gold and crypto often get a lift.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
Saturday, September 26
🇳🇿 NZD Daylight Saving Time Shift · ·
If it comes in higher than forecast
The NZD tends to strengthen (NZD/USD higher) as traders price a firmer central bank.
If it comes in lower than forecast
The NZD tends to weaken (NZD/USD lower) as traders price an easier central bank.
The size of the surprise matters most: a result close to forecast usually moves markets little. These are typical reactions, not predictions; other news can change how markets respond.
Release times, forecasts and impact ratings compiled by The Company Chronicle; times shown in New York time. Trader's guides by The Company Chronicle. Typical market reactions are general information, not investment advice.