Section
Fed & Rates
The Federal Reserve, interest rates and Treasury yields, and what they mean for borrowers and investors.
Market data by TradingView. Some quotes may be delayed. Not investment advice.
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Trump sets up a White House panel to probe Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with a hearing on Nov. 5
A three-member "committee of inquiry" of administration officials will decide whether there is "cause" to remove a Federal Reserve governor, two days after the midterm election and a week after the Fed's next rate decision.
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Mortgage rates rise to 7.40%, a seventh straight weekly gain, and lenders widened their margin
Freddie Mac's 30-year average is up 75 basis points since late August. This week the 10-year Treasury barely moved, yet mortgages rose 12 basis points, which adds about $33 a month on a $400,000 loan.
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Fed minutes: all 12 voters backed the hike to 3.75%-4%, and most see another by year end
The minutes of the September 15-16 meeting show no dissent, a Committee that calls the policy rate "not restrictive or only mildly restrictive," and most participants leaning toward another increase by year end. The next meeting is October 27-28.
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NY Fed: households expect 3.9% inflation, a three-year high, and 5.5% more spending on 3.1% more income
The New York Fed's September survey puts one-year inflation expectations at the highest since May 2023. The part owners should read is the gap between what households expect to earn and what they expect to spend.
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Gold sits 26% below its January record at $4,141 as the 10-year yield reaches 5.31%
Gold has lost about $1,448 an ounce since the January 28 peak. A weak jobs report cooled October Fed hike bets, but Treasury yields kept rising, and that is the number the metal is trading against.
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10-year yield rebounds to about 5.30% as services stay strong and Fed minutes land Wednesday
The 10-year Treasury has risen 27 basis points since the Fed's September hike, and the mortgage rate has followed. A solid ISM services reading and the minutes of that meeting are the next tests.
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Stocks enter the fourth quarter 1% from a record; the 4.2% Q4 average now competes with 5.28% Treasuries
The S&P 500's best season starts with the 10-year yield up 109 basis points this year. Three-month bills alone pay about 1% a quarter, and the midterm-year rally history comes from years with much deeper selloffs than 2026's.
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What 5% Treasury yields actually mean for a repair shop's building loan, a landlord and a dentist
The 5-year Treasury hit 5.09% this week, its highest since July 2007. For a business whose five-year fixed rate was set in 2021, that is a reset of about four percentage points. For a five-year equipment loan, it is closer to $160 a month.
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Fed's Logan wants rates 50 basis points or more higher, on a jobs picture that weakened the next morning
The Dallas Fed president, a voter this year, said Thursday night the Fed's range needs to rise from 3.75%-4% to at least 4.25%-4.5%. Her case leaned on 4.1% unemployment; Friday's report put it at 4.2% with 29,000 jobs added.
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10-year yield climbs to 5.28% despite a 29,000-job report as mortgage-bond ETFs see $2.4 billion of outflows
A weak jobs number pulled Treasury yields down in the morning, and they were higher by early afternoon. The selling in mortgage bonds is what keeps a 7.28% mortgage rate from easing.
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October Fed hike odds fall to 17% after weak jobs data, but futures still price a December hike above 75%
The jobs report pushed the next rate hike back rather than taking it off the table. For a business on a prime-based credit line, the delay is worth about $50; the level of rates matters far more.
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US adds 29,000 jobs in September, unemployment rises to 4.2%; revisions cut 60,000 more
Payrolls missed the 90,000 forecast and July turned negative. Hourly pay rose 3.0% from a year ago, slower than 3.4% inflation, and the 2-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points.
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Bowman says bank leverage relief is working: dealers added about $100 billion of Treasuries on $5 trillion of new room
The Fed's supervision chief says the eSLR rewrite has made the Treasury market work better. It has not made it cheaper: the 10-year yield is up 94 basis points since the rule took effect.
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Fed's Jefferson says next move "may take more time"; the 10-year is up 28 basis points since the hike
The Fed vice chair put PCE inflation at 3.4% and flagged upside risks, but did not push for an October increase. The bond market has already tightened more since September 16 than the Fed did that day.
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Mortgage rates jump to 7.28%, the highest since November 2023 and the biggest weekly rise since 2022
Freddie Mac's 30-year average rose 25 basis points in a week. On a $400,000 loan that is about $68 a month more than last week and $251 more than a year ago, and almost all of it tracks the 10-year Treasury.
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Global bond rout: UK 10-year pays 5.48%, more than Treasuries, and France now pays more than Italy
The 10-year Treasury hit 5.327%, a high since April 2002, but it is not the outlier. A 1.75-point gap over German bunds is pulling money into the dollar, which cuts the cost of a euro invoice.
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Merrill Lynch to pay $39 million over cash sweeps that paid 0.05% to 0.14% while rivals paid about 2%
The settlement covers Merrill Edge retirement accounts from 2016 to 2020 and still needs a judge's approval. With 3-month Treasury bills at 4.20%, the gap on idle cash is now roughly twice what the lawsuit was about.
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Fed's Kashkari lifts his neutral-rate estimate to 3.25%, leaving policy only about half a point above it
Kashkari said Wednesday that softer PCE data did not change his view that inflation is too high. His higher neutral estimate matters more than the quote: it means today's 3.75% to 4% range is less restrictive than it looks.
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Fed's Cook: inflation "too high for too long," as rural households spend a quarter of budgets getting around
Speaking in Asheville, Cook backed the September hike and pointed at energy and housing. With diesel at $6.38, up $2.63 in a year, rural trucks and trades carry the biggest share of that bill.
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10-year Treasury yield hits 5.29%, above its 2007 peak, even as October rate-hike odds fall to 37%
A cooler PCE report cut the odds of a Fed hike, and the long end sold off anyway. Treasury's own records show the 10-year has not closed this high since May 2002.
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Kalshi and Polymarket volumes questioned; in Robinhood's Fed-cuts market, 75% of open contracts sit on 1% long shots
CNBC reported that observers are questioning inflated activity on low-odds prediction contracts. We checked Robinhood's public markets: of 6.2 million open contracts on 2026 rate cuts, 4.7 million are in outcomes priced at 1% or less.
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Fed watchdog clears the $2.4 billion renovation of crimes, but finds no price cap after $2 billion of contracts
The Fed's inspector general found no grounds for a criminal referral and no misconduct. The report also found the Board never set a guaranteed maximum price, and four mechanical and electrical packages came in nearly $500 million over estimate.
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Fed finalizes its stress test overhaul 6-1; its own staff put the capital cut at about 1%
The Fed will publish its models, take public comment on scenarios and average two years of results into big banks' capital buffers. Staff say that trims buffers by about 1% of required capital and halves their year-to-year swings. Governor Barr voted no.
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August PCE: core at 3.0%, below the 3.3% forecast, but the revision did that, not August
Revised July already stood at 3.4% and 3.0%, so annual inflation did not fall in August. Spending jumped 0.9% while real disposable income was flat, pushing the saving rate to 4.1%, its lowest since late 2022.
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Mortgage rates reach 7.58%, the highest since November 2023, while the 10-year sits at a 2007 high
Every loan type in Mortgage News Daily's table is at a 52-week high. The gap between mortgage rates and Treasuries has narrowed by about half a point since 2023, which is why mortgages are not worse.
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Hedge funds' Treasury futures short is $787 billion, a third below its record; the crowding is in ultra-long bonds
CFTC data show leveraged funds' combined net short across six Treasury futures is smaller than a year ago. The squeeze risk sits in the Ultra Bond and Ultra 10-year contracts, where shorts are near the largest since 2018.
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Fed and FDIC find no flaws in 15 big banks' living wills, including PNC, Truist and U.S. Bancorp
Regulators cleared the 2025 resolution plans of 15 banking groups with more than $250 billion in assets, and closed a BNP Paribas repo shortcoming first flagged in 2022. The next plans are due July 1, 2028.
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August PCE due Wednesday at an expected 3.7%, but BEA revisions could cut July's core to about 3%
Economists expect a 0.3% monthly rise in both headline and core PCE prices. A methodology change to three categories may lower past readings, so a smaller annual number would not mean inflation is slowing.
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Fed's Williams sees one more hike "late this year" and inflation at 2% only in 2028
The New York Fed president put 2026 inflation at 3.5% and said there is "no need for urgency." Read in full, the speech points past October, while prediction markets still lean toward an October move.
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Fed's Barr in Detroit: AI could push the neutral rate up, and more hikes are likely with prime at 7%
Barr counted only two months of 2% core inflation in the last 20 and argued an AI productivity boom would lift, not lower, the rate the Fed needs. With the 2-year at 4.92%, here is what each quarter point costs a $250,000 prime-based line.
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30-year Treasury yield hits 5.61%, highest since 2002, as Barclays maps a path to 6%
The long bond is up almost a full point from its February low. Treasury's own data has a four-year hole behind the "since 2002" line, and the move is already reshaping annuity payouts and long fixed-rate borrowing costs.
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Mortgage rates hit 7.50% in a daily index, the first time since April 2024; the 10-year is at 5.24%
Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index is up 0.69 of a point in a month. On a $400,000 loan that is $187 a month more, and the cheaper-looking alternatives now save far less.
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Fed's Cook: AI price pressure is spreading to electricity, water and goods, and productivity won't fix it this year
Governor Lisa Cook says the Fed should not chase AI chip prices, but electricity and water are up about 5% and core goods are running above 3%. She left the door open to more hikes.
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Stocks slip as the 10-year yield hits 5.23%; the 2-year now sits a full point above the Fed's rate
AI names led Monday's decline while Nvidia rose on its buyback. The index move looks mild, but the bond market is pricing a Fed that keeps hiking, and that has been hitting the rest of the S&P 500 for weeks.
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Fed watchdog: departing staffer set off 279 data alerts, many flagged as FOMC files, and nobody can say what left
The Fed's inspector general says a retiring employee moved files flagged as FOMC material before a trip to a "restricted" country. The report does not say market-moving information leaked, and investigators found too little to open a misconduct case.
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Gold falls to a seven-week low near $4,160 as the 10-year yield hits 5.22%; silver drops about 4%
Higher oil is pushing yields and Fed hike bets up, and that is now outweighing gold's war premium. At a 5.2% Treasury yield, sitting in bullion costs more than it has in almost two decades.
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Bessent hires David Zervos, a vocal advocate of lower rates, as the bond market prices another Fed hike
The Jefferies strategist joins Treasury as a counselor until about April 2027. He backs Treasury's long-bond buybacks, which matter more now that the 10-year is above 5.2%.
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$4.3 trillion of U.S. corporate bonds come due by 2031, and the Treasury base rate alone is 4 points higher
Junk-bond maturities jump from $68.5 billion in 2027 to $314.1 billion in 2029, Reuters reported from LSEG data. Treasury's own yield history shows why the refinancing bill is large even before credit spreads move.
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Next week's jobs report is expected to show payrolls halving to about 85,000, with the 10-year yield at 5.17%
The August PCE inflation reading lands Wednesday and September payrolls on Friday, Oct. 2. This week's bond selloff was concentrated at the long end: the 10-year rose 16 basis points while the 2-year rose 5.
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Fed's Hammack warns of an "inflationary mindset"; by consumers' own 4.6% forecast, policy is not yet tight
The Cleveland Fed president, a 2026 voter, says rates must be restrictive. Against August CPI of 3.4% the fed funds rate is about half a point above inflation, and against what consumers now expect it is below it.
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30-year Treasury yield tops 5.5%, but the 2-year has climbed 140 basis points this year, twice as far
The long bond is at its highest since 2004. The bigger move in 2026 has been at the short end, where Fed hike bets live, and that is the part that reaches floating-rate borrowers first.
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Mortgage rates jump to 7.45% in a daily survey, well above Freddie Mac's 7.03% weekly reading
Mortgage News Daily's index rose 19 basis points in one day as Treasury futures volume hit about 3.8 million contracts. Freddie Mac's weekly figure had not yet captured the move.
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What a likely October Fed hike actually means for a holiday retailer, a car lot and a cleaning company
Traders now put the odds of another quarter-point hike on October 28 above 75%, up from about 49% a week ago. The October move costs a borrower very little. The market's path into 2027 is the number to plan around, and it is well above the Fed's own forecast.
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No, the Treasury is not printing money to buy its own debt
It really did raise its buyback size to $4 billion an operation. It is a maturity swap paid for out of bill issuance, the Federal Reserve is not involved, and no new money is created. There is still a real criticism underneath.
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Fed proposes stablecoin rules: 2% capital on the first $20 billion, reserves in Treasuries of 93 days or less
The Federal Reserve put out its GENIUS Act rules for bank-owned stablecoin issuers on Thursday. The capital charge is the number that matters: at today's bill yields it soaks up roughly five months of an issuer's reserve income.
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ECB's Schnabel leaves for the IMF on Jan. 3, putting half the ECB board up for change by late 2027
Isabel Schnabel is leaving a year before her term ends. With the terms of Philip Lane and Christine Lagarde also ending in 2027, three of the six people who run the ECB day to day will change within 10 months, just as the bank has started raising rates again.
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Mortgage rates top 7% in Freddie Mac's survey at 7.03%, the highest since January 2025
The weekly 30-year average rose from 6.95%. On a $400,000 loan that is $193 a month more than a year ago, and nearly all of the rise came from the 10-year Treasury, not from lenders.
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Hedge funds shrink the Treasury basis trade 20% to $1.2 trillion as the bond selloff runs on
Less leverage in the bond market means less risk of a forced fire sale. It also means one of the biggest buyers of Treasuries is buying less, just as auctions struggle.
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Fed's Paulson says "modest further tightening" may be needed, and blames part of it on AI
The Philadelphia Fed president puts underlying inflation at 2.5% to 3% with little sign of closing the gap, and points to a 24% jump in computer import prices tied to the AI buildout.
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U.S. current account deficit widens to $246 billion; income paid to foreign investors hits a record
The second-quarter gap grew 15.7% on a jump in goods imports. The line that matters for the bond market is smaller: America now pays foreigners more in interest and dividends than it earns from them.
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Jobless claims fall to 197,000 and the 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.44%, its highest since 2004
A second straight week under 200,000 keeps the labor market looking tight, and traders now price a better than 75% chance of an October Fed hike. For borrowers on prime-based lines, that is money.
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Hassett asks why the Fed is hiking with core inflation at 2%; that 2% leans on a flat June
The White House economic adviser questioned last week's rate rise and criticized officials calling for more. Government data show core prices ran at about a 3% pace in July and August, and the two-year yield jumped to 4.85%.
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Long-bond ETF TLT closes at a record low of $80.46 as the 30-year yield hits 5.40%
The biggest long-Treasury fund is down 53% from its 2020 peak on price alone. With six years of monthly payouts added back, the loss is about 42%, and the fund now yields about 4.8% on trailing distributions.
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5-year Treasury auction clears at 5.033%, highest since 2006, with the weakest demand since 2018
Wednesday's $70 billion sale paid 64 basis points more than August's. Bids covered it just 2.21 times, foreign and fund buyers stepped back, and dealers were left holding the most since 2024.
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OECD lifts U.S. growth to 2.2% on AI spending, but sees 2027 inflation at 2.6%, above the Fed's own forecast
The OECD nudged global growth up to 2.9% for 2026. The bigger change was on prices: it raised its 2027 G20 inflation forecast by half a point, and its U.S. inflation path runs hotter than the Fed's.
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5-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007 as October hike odds jump to 73%
The whole short end of the curve repriced in one session after a hot business survey and a Fed governor backed more hikes. For business borrowers the five-year, not the ten-year, is often the benchmark for fixed loan rates.
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Fed's Barr says more rate hikes are likely as home affordability hits a 21-year low
Governor Michael Barr said the Fed was "out of position" before last week's hike and that further increases are likely in his base case. In the same speech he laid out why mortgage relief will not come from the Fed alone.
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10-year Treasury yield hits 5.06%, highest since 2007, as stocks slip and small caps fall 1.6%
A hot business survey and a Fed governor calling for more hikes pushed the benchmark yield to a 19-year high. The Russell 2000 took the worst of it, and the odds of an October hike topped 60%.
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Mortgage rates hold at 7.17%, and the usual escape hatches save less than they did a year ago
The daily 30-year average is $311 a month above its 52-week low on a $400,000 loan. Adjustable and 15-year loans now sit closer to the 30-year than they did a year ago.
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New York Fed has bought no Treasury bills for reserves since mid-August, Perli says, and money markets are calm
The Fed's markets chief says reserves are still plentiful after $400 billion of bill issuance barely moved repo rates. The next test is October, when the Treasury is expected to sell another large round of bills.
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2-year Treasury auction clears at 4.787%, highest since May 2024, as Barkin says firms can raise prices again
Tuesday's $69 billion sale cost the government 58 basis points more than the same auction a month ago. Foreign and fund buyers took a smaller share, and a Fed president explained why the market is pricing more hikes.
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AI borrowers now pay about 115 basis points over Treasuries, versus 78 for the rest of high-grade debt
Bond buyers are not worried Meta or Alphabet will default. They are worried about how much more debt is coming. Here is what the 37-point gap costs.
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Goolsbee says the Fed can no longer look through oil and tariff inflation, with the peak pushed to 2027
The Chicago Fed president's line about AI data centers made the headlines. The bigger point of his speech is that supply shocks alone may now justify higher rates.
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Fed's Jefferson and Williams defend the Fed's cash backstops as Warsh reviews the balance sheet
Neither official said anything about the path of interest rates on Tuesday. Both argued for keeping the liquidity tools that Chair Kevin Warsh has criticized, a week before a quarter-end that tends to test them.
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What the Fed's hike to a 7% prime rate actually means for a contractor with a floating-rate line
The prime rate moved from 6.75% to 7% the day after the Fed's September hike. The quarter point costs less than most owners fear. The Fed's forecast for 2027 is the part worth planning around.
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Fed's Kashkari says inflation is too high in 'all aspects' of the economy, not just oil
The Minneapolis Fed president told Fox News on Sunday that price pressure runs well beyond energy, days after backing the Fed's quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4%. Here is what it signals about the rate path.
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Fed raises rates to 3.75%-4% and signals one more hike this year
The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter point in a unanimous vote, said inflation "remains elevated," and penciled in another increase before the end of 2026.
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Mortgage rates jump to 6.95%, the biggest weekly rise in more than a year
The average 30-year fixed rate climbed from 6.76% to 6.95% in Freddie Mac's weekly survey, as the Fed raised rates and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5%.
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The Fed just raised rates again. Here's what it means for business loans and lines of credit
Variable-rate business debt usually gets more expensive within weeks of a Fed hike, and officials expect one more increase this year. What changes for small-business borrowers, and what to do now.