Section
Fed & Rates
The Federal Reserve, interest rates and Treasury yields, and what they mean for borrowers and investors.
Market data by TradingView and Coinbase. Rates are the latest daily or weekly Federal Reserve data. Futures boards show 24-hour index and commodity prices that track futures markets. Some quotes may be delayed. Not investment advice.
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Hassett asks why the Fed is hiking with core inflation at 2%; that 2% leans on a flat June
The White House economic adviser questioned last week's rate rise and criticized officials calling for more. Government data show core prices ran at about a 3% pace in July and August, and the two-year yield jumped to 4.85%.
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Long-bond ETF TLT closes at a record low of $80.46 as the 30-year yield hits 5.40%
The biggest long-Treasury fund is down 53% from its 2020 peak on price alone. With six years of monthly payouts added back, the loss is about 42%, and the fund now yields about 4.8% on trailing distributions.
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5-year Treasury auction clears at 5.033%, highest since 2006, with the weakest demand since 2018
Wednesday's $70 billion sale paid 64 basis points more than August's. Bids covered it just 2.21 times, foreign and fund buyers stepped back, and dealers were left holding the most since 2024.
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OECD lifts U.S. growth to 2.2% on AI spending, but sees 2027 inflation at 2.6%, above the Fed's own forecast
The OECD nudged global growth up to 2.9% for 2026. The bigger change was on prices: it raised its 2027 G20 inflation forecast by half a point, and its U.S. inflation path runs hotter than the Fed's.
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5-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007 as October hike odds jump to 73%
The whole short end of the curve repriced in one session after a hot business survey and a Fed governor backed more hikes. For business borrowers the five-year, not the ten-year, is often the benchmark for fixed loan rates.
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Fed's Barr says more rate hikes are likely as home affordability hits a 21-year low
Governor Michael Barr said the Fed was "out of position" before last week's hike and that further increases are likely in his base case. In the same speech he laid out why mortgage relief will not come from the Fed alone.
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10-year Treasury yield hits 5.06%, highest since 2007, as stocks slip and small caps fall 1.6%
A hot business survey and a Fed governor calling for more hikes pushed the benchmark yield to a 19-year high. The Russell 2000 took the worst of it, and the odds of an October hike topped 60%.
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Mortgage rates hold at 7.17%, and the usual escape hatches save less than they did a year ago
The daily 30-year average is $311 a month above its 52-week low on a $400,000 loan. Adjustable and 15-year loans now sit closer to the 30-year than they did a year ago.
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New York Fed has bought no Treasury bills for reserves since mid-August, Perli says, and money markets are calm
The Fed's markets chief says reserves are still plentiful after $400 billion of bill issuance barely moved repo rates. The next test is October, when the Treasury is expected to sell another large round of bills.
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2-year Treasury auction clears at 4.787%, highest since May 2024, as Barkin says firms can raise prices again
Tuesday's $69 billion sale cost the government 58 basis points more than the same auction a month ago. Foreign and fund buyers took a smaller share, and a Fed president explained why the market is pricing more hikes.
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AI borrowers now pay about 115 basis points over Treasuries, versus 78 for the rest of high-grade debt
Bond buyers are not worried Meta or Alphabet will default. They are worried about how much more debt is coming. Here is what the 37-point gap costs.
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Goolsbee says the Fed can no longer look through oil and tariff inflation, with the peak pushed to 2027
The Chicago Fed president's line about AI data centers made the headlines. The bigger point of his speech is that supply shocks alone may now justify higher rates.
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Fed's Jefferson and Williams defend the Fed's cash backstops as Warsh reviews the balance sheet
Neither official said anything about the path of interest rates on Tuesday. Both argued for keeping the liquidity tools that Chair Kevin Warsh has criticized, a week before a quarter-end that tends to test them.
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What the Fed's hike to a 7% prime rate actually means for a contractor with a floating-rate line
The prime rate moved from 6.75% to 7% the day after the Fed's September hike. The quarter point costs less than most owners fear. The Fed's forecast for 2027 is the part worth planning around.
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Fed's Kashkari says inflation is too high in 'all aspects' of the economy, not just oil
The Minneapolis Fed president told Fox News on Sunday that price pressure runs well beyond energy, days after backing the Fed's quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4%. Here is what it signals about the rate path.
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Fed raises rates to 3.75%-4% and signals one more hike this year
The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter point in a unanimous vote, said inflation "remains elevated," and penciled in another increase before the end of 2026.
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Mortgage rates jump to 6.95%, the biggest weekly rise in more than a year
The average 30-year fixed rate climbed from 6.76% to 6.95% in Freddie Mac's weekly survey, as the Fed raised rates and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5%.
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The Fed just raised rates again. Here's what it means for business loans and lines of credit
Variable-rate business debt usually gets more expensive within weeks of a Fed hike, and officials expect one more increase this year. What changes for small-business borrowers, and what to do now.