Mortgage rates top 7% in Freddie Mac's survey at 7.03%, the highest since January 2025

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.03% this week from 6.95%, Freddie Mac said on Thursday. It is the first reading above 7% in the Primary Mortgage Market Survey since Jan. 16, 2025, when the rate was 7.04%, according to Freddie Mac's historical data. A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.30%.

The 15-year fixed rate rose to 6.42% from 6.26%, compared with 5.49% a year earlier. Freddie Mac said the housing market "remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy that is growing at a healthy rate."

What it costs

For a $400,000, 30-year loan, monthly principal and interest works out as follows. These are our calculations, before taxes and insurance:

Compared with a year ago, that is about $2,300 a year. Compared with February's low, it is more than $3,300 a year. A buyer who got preapproved in the spring and has not locked a rate is now looking at a noticeably bigger payment for the same house.

The thing the headline gets wrong

It is easy to read "mortgage rates top 7%" as lenders getting more cautious. The numbers point the other way. Freddie Mac's survey covers applications from Thursday through Wednesday. Over those five trading days, Sept. 17 to 23, the 10-year Treasury yield averaged 5.00%, according to Treasury data. That puts the gap between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield at about 2.03 percentage points.

In the same survey week a year ago, the 10-year averaged 4.14% against a 6.30% mortgage rate, a gap of about 2.16 points. So over the year the 10-year rose about 0.86 of a point while mortgage rates rose 0.73. Lenders' margin over Treasuries actually narrowed slightly. The whole increase, and a bit more, came from the bond market. You can follow the benchmark on our 10-year Treasury chart.

That matters for next week. The 10-year closed at 5.11% on Wednesday, the last day of this survey window, and CNBC reported it at about 5.16% on Thursday, its highest since July 2007. If the gap holds near 2.03 points, a 5.16% 10-year lines up with a 30-year mortgage rate near 7.2%. That is simple arithmetic, not a forecast. But it shows the survey has not yet caught up with where bonds are trading this week.

Who it hits

The 15-year loan, a common way to get a lower rate, gives up less of an advantage than it used to. The gap between the 30-year and 15-year rates is 0.61 of a point this week, down from 0.81 a year ago. The 15-year payment on the same $400,000 is $3,467 a month, about $800 more than the 30-year.

For someone closing on a home in October or November, the timing of a rate lock matters more than usual, because this week's survey reflects bond yields that are already lower than current levels. For builders, agents, movers and remodelers whose work depends on sales volume, rates above 7% put buyers under the most pressure since early 2025.

Sources: Freddie Mac; U.S. Treasury; CNBC. Payment figures and spreads are Chronicle calculations. This is market information, not investment advice.