Section
Economy
Jobs, inflation, growth and trade: the numbers that move markets, explained.
Market data by TradingView and Coinbase. Rates are the latest daily or weekly Federal Reserve data. Futures boards show 24-hour index and commodity prices that track futures markets. Some quotes may be delayed. Not investment advice.
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Hassett asks why the Fed is hiking with core inflation at 2%; that 2% leans on a flat June
The White House economic adviser questioned last week's rate rise and criticized officials calling for more. Government data show core prices ran at about a 3% pace in July and August, and the two-year yield jumped to 4.85%.
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U.S. and China extend the Busan trade truce to Jan. 10, moving the tariff deadline past the holidays
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the truce due to lapse on Nov. 10 will now run to Jan. 10. The two extra months carry the deal past the first full-year test of China's soybean pledge and past peak holiday shipping.
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White House drafts a 90-day diesel export ban; refiner stocks fall, then recover most of the drop by the close
Politico reported a 90-day ban is being prepared, while the energy secretary talks of caps instead. Ninety days of exports at the recent pace is about 140 million barrels, more than all the diesel in U.S. storage.
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OECD lifts U.S. growth to 2.2% on AI spending, but sees 2027 inflation at 2.6%, above the Fed's own forecast
The OECD nudged global growth up to 2.9% for 2026. The bigger change was on prices: it raised its 2027 G20 inflation forecast by half a point, and its U.S. inflation path runs hotter than the Fed's.
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71% of workers now get paid leave, BLS says, but only 32% of part-timers and 45% in service jobs
Paid leave access in the private sector rose to 69% from 63% in 2017-18. The averages hide the gap that matters to restaurant and trade owners competing for hourly staff.
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Bessent says the U.S. is open to extending the China trade truce that ends Nov. 10, or a bigger deal
The Treasury Secretary met Vice Premier He Lifeng a day before Xi Jinping's White House summit. Here is where the truce's three headline promises stand on soybeans, Boeing jets and rare earths.
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Wright says a diesel export ban "definitely doesn't work"; exports already fell 18% to 1.33 million barrels a day
Chris Wright broke with President Trump on an export ban and pointed to a voluntary deal with refiners instead. EIA data out the same morning shows exports already dropped 18% last week, and what a ban would do to storage within two weeks.
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Crude stocks rise 3 million barrels as exports drop 1.55 million a day; distillate cover falls to 27 days
The EIA's weekly report shows a crude build driven mostly by a sharp drop in exports rather than a glut. Distillate stocks slipped again as diesel demand jumped, as Washington weighs a diesel export ban.
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What the fastest rise in business costs in four years means for a coffee shop, an HVAC firm and an auto shop
S&P Global's flash survey says U.S. business is booming, but input costs rose at the steepest rate since October 2022 and service firms are passing on less than they absorb. Here is the arithmetic for three kinds of shop.
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Iran hands Witkoff three conditions to reopen Hormuz; diesel futures are down 11% in a week, pump prices are not
Tehran wants the naval blockade lifted, frozen assets released and an end to fighting on every front. Wholesale diesel has already priced in a lot of hope, while the pump price hit another record.
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Texas halts data center permits until a grid audit is done, with no end date, as three data center IPOs stall
Gov. Greg Abbott told state agencies to stop approving data center projects until ERCOT finishes its audit. The first check-in is October 19. Texas has more than 22,000 independent trade contractors on our count.
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Trump backs a diesel export ban and says a decision is coming fast; Valero falls 4.1%
Treasury Secretary Bessent says the administration is studying a full or partial ban. Refining stocks, which make money on the gap between diesel at about $207 a barrel and crude near $93, sold off.
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New York Fed has bought no Treasury bills for reserves since mid-August, Perli says, and money markets are calm
The Fed's markets chief says reserves are still plentiful after $400 billion of bill issuance barely moved repo rates. The next test is October, when the Treasury is expected to sell another large round of bills.
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Atlanta Fed: 70% of firms getting tariff refunds plan to keep some as cash; refunds average 1.7% of revenue
A survey of more than 1,100 executives finds only about a quarter think they qualify, and fewer than half of those have been paid. Public companies are more than twice as likely to have their money.
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Home prices rose 3.7% in a year, the fastest pace in 12 months, in the strongest buyer's market on record
Redfin's August index shows prices still climbing even with 58% more sellers than buyers. Add higher mortgage rates and the same house costs about $224 a month more than a year ago.
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BofA sees Brent above $150 if Iran disruptions last; the U.S. emergency oil reserve is down 30% in a year
Oil hovered near $100 as Trump said an Iran deal would come after the midterms and Bessent said a diesel export ban is under review. Federal data shows where the cushion has gone.
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2-year Treasury auction clears at 4.787%, highest since May 2024, as Barkin says firms can raise prices again
Tuesday's $69 billion sale cost the government 58 basis points more than the same auction a month ago. Foreign and fund buyers took a smaller share, and a Fed president explained why the market is pricing more hikes.
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Goolsbee says the Fed can no longer look through oil and tariff inflation, with the peak pushed to 2027
The Chicago Fed president's line about AI data centers made the headlines. The bigger point of his speech is that supply shocks alone may now justify higher rates.
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GOP split over a diesel export ban: the U.S. is shipping 1.6 million barrels a day, nearly double a year ago
Republican farm-state lawmakers want Washington to stop diesel leaving the country. EIA data shows why the idea has traction, and one House bill's own price trigger would have kept exports shut since March.
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Fed's Jefferson and Williams defend the Fed's cash backstops as Warsh reviews the balance sheet
Neither official said anything about the path of interest rates on Tuesday. Both argued for keeping the liquidity tools that Chair Kevin Warsh has criticized, a week before a quarter-end that tends to test them.
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Oil falls a fifth day and Brent slips under $100 as Saudi pipeline restarts, but diesel sets another record at $6.53
Saudi Arabia is testing and restarting its East-West pipeline after a September 10 drone strike. Crude is falling faster than diesel, and the government's own price breakdown explains why truckers will wait longest for relief.
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Social Security's 2027 raise is tracking 3.4% to 3.6%, and one September inflation number decides it
After August's CPI-W came in 3.5% above a year ago, forecasters put next year's cost-of-living adjustment in the mid-3% range. Our math on the BLS data shows exactly what September has to do for each outcome.
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Diesel hits a record $6.51 a gallon, up 93 cents in a month, as crude slips 3%
AAA's national diesel average set another all-time high Monday even as oil fell. Fuel is now $2.82 a gallon dearer than a year ago, a cost that runs through trucking, farming and delivery bills.
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Fed's Kashkari says inflation is too high in 'all aspects' of the economy, not just oil
The Minneapolis Fed president told Fox News on Sunday that price pressure runs well beyond energy, days after backing the Fed's quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4%. Here is what it signals about the rate path.
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Fed raises rates to 3.75%-4% and signals one more hike this year
The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter point in a unanimous vote, said inflation "remains elevated," and penciled in another increase before the end of 2026.