Section
Economy
Jobs, inflation, growth and trade: the numbers that move markets, explained.
Market data by TradingView. Some quotes may be delayed. Not investment advice.
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China extends its pause on the 24% tariff on US goods and on port fees for US ships by two months
A 10% tariff stays in place. Beijing also said it is watching Washington's plan to replace struck-down emergency tariffs with Section 301 duties, and will adjust "as appropriate".
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Anthropic buys 1.7 gigawatts of gas generators for $3.4 billion, the FT reports
The deal, reported by the Financial Times on Sunday, is the largest known power-equipment purchase by an AI lab. Caterpillar's own filing shows why generators are the scarce part.
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China will out-invest the U.S. in energy by $325 billion this year: $940 billion vs $615 billion
The $940 billion figure that Chinese state TV reported Sunday matches the International Energy Agency's own 2026 projection, which puts China at 28% of the $3.4 trillion the world will spend on energy.
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Italy's foreign minister says hackers leaked his personal data on the dark web, and Meloni blames pro-Russian groups
Antonio Tajani says criminals have spread his data for days and will pay for more. It follows hoax bomb threats, attacks on supermarket refrigeration systems and drone sightings across Europe.
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Paraguay's Peña is impeached and under house arrest, as the Ueno Bank collapse hits bonds and the guaraní
The Senate removed the president 44 to 0 on Friday, days after regulators seized a bank with about 3 million customers. Paraguay's bonds posted some of the worst emerging-market losses this week, CBS reported.
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A Maryland mom with a petition stalled a $5 billion data center: 25,000 signatures
NPR profiles Taylor Frazier McCollum, who led the fight against a data center at the former Landover Mall. What Prince George's County actually decided, what it did not, and what it signals for data center developers.
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Carney welcomes Democrats' push to scrap Trump's Canada tariffs, but keeps negotiating
Sen. Ron Wyden, likely next Finance Committee chair, has named the Canada duties as an early repeal target. Trump can veto, and Ottawa now has to choose between a partial deal and waiting for Congress.
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Weekend brief: Berkshire's operating profit slips 6% as it buys back $9.6 billion, and CPI lands Tuesday
Futures reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday after a week that left the Nasdaq in correction. Friday's closes, Berkshire's third-quarter numbers from its own release, and the dates that matter next week.
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China's central bank buys 830,000 ounces of gold in October as prices fall, a 24th straight month
The People's Bank of China now holds 78.3 million ounces after adding gold through a month in which the metal fell almost 7% and closed below $4,000. Buying into a drop is the signal traders are reading.
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Democrats won on data center pauses, but only one state has enacted one so far
Ohio, Texas, Georgia and Wisconsin winners ran on pausing or tightening data center builds. What has actually been proposed, what governors can do alone, and what it means for AI spending, local contractors and power bills.
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Trump replaces Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller as ex-HHS adviser says she put donations first
Calley Means told Joe Rogan that Wiles let fundraising and industry pressure stall health policy. A Trump strategist calls it invented, and Trump says Miller takes over Monday.
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Consumer sentiment jumps 6% to 51.0, but Americans with the biggest stock portfolios turned 5% gloomier
Michigan's preliminary November reading rose from 48.0, year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.3%, and 57% of consumers said high prices are eroding their living standards.
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What this week's oil slide means for a trucker, a plow crew and a delivery van: pump diesel is still $6.29
December heating oil, the diesel benchmark, is down about 48 cents a gallon since Oct. 30. The last government reading of pump diesel, from Nov. 2, shows only a 6-cent drop, so most of the relief has not reached an owner's fuel card.
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What October's jobs report actually means for a restaurant, a contractor and a trucking firm
Payrolls rose 165,000, but the number that reaches an owner is pay: construction production workers now earn 5.2% more than a year ago and restaurant crews 5.1%. A quarter-point Fed hike would cost a $250,000 credit line $625 a year. Those raises cost far more.
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US adds 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple forecasts, and the rate-hike case gets stronger
Unemployment slipped to 4.1% and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000. Wages rose 0.4% in the month, which matters to a Fed already debating a December increase.
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Trump blames Democrats for the stock plunge: the S&P 500 was already 3% off its high before the vote
In a Truth Social post, the president said the market had "one of the Worst Days in History" because of the election. The numbers show a bad day, the worst since April 2025, but not a historic one, and the slide began before Election Day.
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ING is reportedly shopping $500 million of data-center loans, including a slice of Stargate
Bloomberg reports that the Dutch bank is auctioning 12 loans, with bids due November 19. ING has not confirmed it, and the price is the number that will say whether this is routine or a warning.
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Canada's budget runs a $62.3 billion deficit and lets every business expense equipment at once
Ottawa's Budget 2026 keeps the deficit near $62 billion for two years, adds a permanent Productivity Mega Deduction, and sends interest costs from $60.2 billion to $85.5 billion by 2030-31. Small-business groups say most of their members get little.
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US adds 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple the 59,000 forecast; unemployment falls to 4.1%
Payrolls beat the Dow Jones consensus by about 106,000, and revisions added 84,000 more jobs to August and September. Hourly pay rose 0.4% in the month and 3.1% from a year ago.
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IRS lifts the Section 179 expensing limit to $2.64 million and the standard deduction to $33,200 for 2027
The 2027 inflation adjustments touch almost 70 provisions. For a business owner, the biggest changes are the equipment expensing cap, the SUV limit and the employer childcare credit.
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Bank of England hikes to 4% and says inflation will near 5%, with one vote for a bigger move
The first UK rate rise in three years passed 8 to 1, and the dissenter wanted half a point. The Bank blames an energy shock it says is still growing, the same one the Fed is wrestling with.
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Fed's Hammack and Barkin make the case for hiking in small steps, as stocks sink 4%
The first Fed speeches since Democrats won Congress argue for "gradual" increases. The 2-year Treasury yield has fallen 15 basis points in three days to 4.46%, still well above the 3.75% to 4% policy range.
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Mortgage rates fall to 7.18% for a third straight week, but a $400,000 loan is still $255 a month dearer than a year ago
Freddie Mac's 30-year average is now 22 basis points below its October peak of 7.40%, worth about $60 a month on a $400,000 loan. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 5.28% to 4.90% over the same stretch.
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Paraguay's president resigns after Ueno Bank collapse, as lower house votes to pursue impeachment
Santiago Peña quit on Thursday, two days after the central bank seized a digital lender that held pensions and public money and had about 3 million customers.
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Gold climbs back above $4,100 after the midterms, but most of the gain came Wednesday
Gold futures are up about 5% from last Friday's low and silver 6%, yet the dollar has barely moved and gold is still 23% below its January high.
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Treasury names 6,576 Opportunity Zones, about one in four eligible tracts, starting Jan. 1, 2027
The new ten-year map keeps 26% of the 25,332 eligible census tracts, and rural areas fared better than the rest: 31% of eligible rural tracts made the cut against 23% elsewhere.
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Jobless claims fall to 189,000, matching the lowest since 1969, as layoffs stay rare
First-time claims came in 7,000 below forecast the day before the October jobs report. The number behind the number: continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718 million, which fits a market where few are fired and few are hired.
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Bank of England raises rates to 4% and sees inflation near 5% by mid-2027
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8 to 1 for the first hike in more than three years, citing energy prices in the ninth month of the Middle East conflict. One member wanted a half-point.
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Mortgage rates slip to 7.22% on Mortgage News Daily, saving $22 a month on a $400,000 loan
Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index fell 0.08 points on Wednesday as the 10-year Treasury yield eased after the midterms. Freddie Mac's weekly reading, due at noon ET Thursday, last stood at 7.24%.
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Update: Euro zone inflation hits 4%, and energy at 20.8% explains all of the rise; core stays 2.5%
Eurostat's October flash puts euro area inflation at 4.0%, a three-year high. Strip out energy and prices rose 2.3% for the second month running, which is the split behind markets pricing about a 72% chance of another ECB hike in December.
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What the 4.8% pay gap means for a restaurant, an HVAC shop and a cleaning company's payroll
ADP says people who changed jobs got raises of 4.8% over the past year, while people who stayed got 3%. On a nine-person payroll that gap is a $7,290 decision, and it lands differently in every trade.
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What the oil slide actually means for a trucker, a moving company and a landscaper: diesel is still $6.29
Crude fell more than 4% on Wednesday, but the EIA's latest weekly reading shows diesel at the pump down just 9 cents in five weeks. Gasoline has fallen 31 cents. Here is what that does to a fuel bill, and why the cheaper fuel has not reached you yet.
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Grainger raises its 2026 profit outlook to $47-$48 a share and the stock jumps 7.8%
The industrial supplier to repair shops, plumbers and factories posted $5.2 billion in third-quarter sales, up 14.9% on an organic daily basis. Its main North American business earned a thinner gross margin even as demand strengthened.
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U.S. trade deficit edges down to $105.0 billion as imports reach $426.6 billion
The September gap barely moved, but computers drove a $5.2 billion jump in imports, and China was only the fourth-largest goods deficit behind Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan.
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Martin Marietta books a record $2.37 billion quarter, but profit per ton of stone falls 17%
Revenue jumped 28% on acquisitions, yet organic shipments slipped, the average price per ton fell 3.6%, and adjusted earnings per share dropped 11%. The company now guides to a lower aggregates price for the full year.
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UK cyber chief warns AI will exploit old infrastructure flaws at scale by 2028: 75% of CNI incidents were state-linked
NCSC chief Richard Horne said in June that about three in four of 200-plus incidents at critical national infrastructure were believed linked to states. The agency's new Annual Review, published November 3, repeats the AI warning.
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Gina Hinojosa ousts Greg Abbott, becoming Texas' first Latina governor and first Democrat since 1995
The AP called the race at 10:17 p.m. ET on Tuesday and Abbott conceded, ending 30 years of Republican control of the governor's office. For Texas businesses, the open questions are the data center permit freeze and what comes after Abbott's fourth-term bid.
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Mortgage rates fall for a third week, yet purchase applications drop 2% and sit 19% below last year
The MBA's 30-year contract rate slipped to 7.3% from 7.37% in the week to Oct. 30, the lowest since September, but cheaper money is not bringing buyers back: a year ago the same rate was 6.17%.
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ADP: private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, and job-changers got 4.8% raises
Hiring held steady and beat the 75,000 forecast, with small firms adding 28,000. Friday's government jobs report is expected to show just 59,000.
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Fitch warns France: outlook cut to negative, debt seen at 124% of GDP by 2028
An unscheduled review kept the A+ rating but moved the outlook to negative. The number that changed most is the one nobody headlined: the fiscal tightening needed just to stop debt rising.
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New Jersey's governor tells ports to turn away Russian diesel Trump's Treasury allowed, with diesel at $6.29
Gov. Mikie Sherrill says importing it breaks a 2022 federal ban and threatens civil and criminal penalties. Treasury's license runs to April 7, 2027, and the administration says it is legal. Whether New Jersey can actually stop a tanker is unclear.
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Trump cuts South Africa and Rwanda from AGOA duty-free trade from Jan. 1, 2027
The USTR says its annual review found both countries in breach of eligibility rules. South Africa says AGOA-covered exports already fell to about $1.7 billion in 2025 from $4 billion.
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Gas hits $4.15 on Election Day, a record for a vote day, but 2012 and 2022 cost more adjusted for inflation
AAA puts the national average at $4.149 for Election Day 2026, about 35 cents above the 2022 midterm. Adjusted for inflation, 2012 and 2022 still cost more at the pump.
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What the 1.9% drop in construction spending actually means for a remodeler, a framer and an electrician
The whole decline was housing: residential spending fell $49.0 billion at the annual rate while nonresidential rose $7.8 billion. Inside housing, new homes were flat and what fell was home improvement, down about 18% from a year ago by our math.
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Keurig Dr Pepper trims its legacy profit outlook as shoppers trade down on coffee
KDP beat Q3 estimates at 66 cents a share, but cut growth expectations for its legacy business to 3%-5% because U.S. Coffee is recovering more slowly. A $99 million tariff refund flattered the coffee numbers.
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What September's jump in job openings actually means for a restaurant, a contractor, a retailer and a trucker
Employers posted 7.52 million openings in September, up from 7.19 million in August. Restaurant openings are down a third on a year ago, yet restaurant workers are quitting at a 5.0% monthly rate, so the same report points four different ways.
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RBA lifts its cash rate to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote and says inflation will stay high through 2027
Australia's central bank raised rates by a quarter point on Melbourne Cup Day, citing fuel prices from the Middle East conflict. Three of nine board members wanted to hold.
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ISM factory index jumps to 55.5%: production hits a five-year high while prices stay at 75.2%
Manufacturing grew for the 10th straight month and the Production Index reached its highest since November 2021. The same report shows 53% of buyers still paid more, and 66% of panel comments were negative.
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US economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter, but September inflation ran 3.6% and real income fell 0.3%
BEA's two Oct. 29 releases pull in opposite directions: strong growth, and an inflation rate of 3.6% with core at 3.1%. After inflation, Americans' spending was flat in September and the saving rate was 3.8%.
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China's factory PMI falls to 49.3 as production, orders and construction contract
China's official manufacturing PMI reversed below 50 in October, while non-manufacturing and composite gauges also contracted. High-tech factories still expanded, but smaller manufacturers, construction and domestic demand carried the weakness.
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FTC asks nine companies how personal data shapes prices, job offers and worker pay
The compulsory study reaches Delta, United, JetBlue, Lyft, Uber, DoorDash, Instacart, Target and Walmart. Its most revealing question connects the customer’s bill with the worker’s compensation.
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Canada's EU summit tests what an 'associate member' would actually get
Montreal's proposed alliance builds on an existing trade agreement. The practical test is which new market access, supply-chain and research commitments survive the summit statement.
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DRC Ebola response leaves 5,608 daily contact checks unrecorded
Deaths reach 4,960, but the operational gap is in surveillance: daily monitoring remains below the 95% target as a vaccine trial begins in the field.
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U.S. growth hits 3.4%, with private domestic demand running faster at 4.9%
The advance GDP estimate shows investment accelerating and exports declining. The domestic-demand measure helps separate the underlying expansion from inventories and trade, giving operating businesses a clearer view of purchases at home.
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Chipotle says its low-income diners outspent its high-income ones for the first time this year
The burrito chain missed on profit but its traffic grew, and the detail that moved the stock up 7% cuts against the whole K-shaped-consumer story: the lower-income customer came back.
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What the Fed's hold, with two votes for a hike, means for a contractor's credit line
The Fed left rates at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, but two officials wanted to raise them and nobody voted to cut. For a business carrying a floating-rate line, the plan to wait for cheaper money just got harder.
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RFK Jr. clears 6 unapproved peptides for compounding as FDA scientists warn on safety
HHS says it will not act against pharmacies that make BPC-157 and five other peptides that the FDA has never approved. Telehealth and compounding stocks moved: Hims & Hers rose about 5%.
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Fed holds at 3.75% to 4% as Cook and Hammack dissent for a hike: 'inflation remains elevated'
The 10 to 2 vote leans hawkish: the statement calls growth strong and inflation elevated. Stocks barely moved, while oil kept climbing and the 10-year yield sits near 5%.
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Congo's Ebola outbreak passes 10,000 confirmed cases, with 4,887 deaths
The 10,060 figure is government data reported by ECDC and Al Jazeera; WHO's latest published total, as of Oct. 20, was 9,704. Africa CDC says about 80% of cases are outside monitored contacts.
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Consumer confidence jumps 7.5 points to 91.7, but September was revised up and spending plans fell
The Conference Board says easing gasoline prices lifted sentiment. Households still plan to spend less on services and big-ticket goods, and expect inflation of 5.8% a year.
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Durable goods orders jump 1.8% to $345.4 billion, but aircraft did most of it: core equipment rose 0.5%
A $5.6 billion swing in civilian aircraft orders drove September's headline gain. The business-equipment measure economists watch slowed from 1.6% in August, one day before the Fed decides.
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China's factory profits jump 14.4% on AI chips and copper, while retail sales crawl at 1.1%
Industrial profits grew at their fastest pace since June, but the gains sit in AI hardware and metals. Households are not spending, and Beijing has held back new stimulus.
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Gasoline is up 34% and airfare 22%, but eggs are down 21%: where inflation is and isn't
Overall prices rose 3.7% in the year to September. Behind that single number, ten categories are running hotter and six are actually falling. Here is the full map from the Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
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France: 410,000 march, 1,314 arrested, Louvre shut, and another Saturday of protests set
A second straight weekend of cost-of-living protests brought 70,000 police into the streets and far less looting than a week ago. What travelers, shop owners and anyone watching French debt should know.
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Weekend brief: Brent ends the week at $116.72, the 10-year is back at 5.00% and the Fed decides Wednesday
Futures reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday. Friday's closes, what the oil and Iran headlines mean for the open, France's new protests, and the calendar into the October 28 Fed decision.
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Moody's keeps France at Aa3 but warns on politics: deficit near 5.5% and outlook still negative
The agency spared Paris a downgrade after a week of protests and a 10-year yield above 5%, then said political fragmentation could weaken its credit metrics faster than it expects.
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UK tells households to keep 3 days of food and water. Here is what the guidance actually says
The government's Be Ready checklist asks for 3 days of supplies, including 3 litres of water per person per day. It names cyber attacks among many emergencies. It does not mention AI.
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Trump's housing order cancels no one's mortgage insurance today: it covers only future loans
The executive order sets up a pilot to drop private mortgage insurance automatically and to waive lender title insurance on refinances. The text makes both conditional, and neither touches today's 7.32% rate.
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Trump drops 50% tariffs on nine Canadian product groups, adds valves, carpets and shampoo
A White House proclamation swaps products on the Section 338 list, effective Oct. 30. Sen. Susan Collins announced the exemptions first; the new duties came less than an hour later.
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Homebuilders are paying for sales with margin: NVR gross margin falls to 18.3%, M/I to 20.9%, Pulte to 24.8%
PulteGroup, NVR and M/I Homes all reported lower profit and fewer orders for the third quarter. The filings show where the incentives went: gross margins down 140 to 300 basis points in a year.
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American Express cuts 5% of its workforce as record revenue tops $20 billion
The card company raised its 2026 profit outlook the same morning it took a $336 million restructuring charge, saying the layoffs are meant to "prepare for AI." Its filing shows what the cuts sit next to.
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Trump orders pilot to cancel mortgage insurance automatically, but nothing changes for borrowers yet
The housing order signed Thursday directs FHFA to build a program, widen a title insurance waiver and set up a manufactured housing task force. Mortgage rates, at 7.32%, are the bigger bill.
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Factory output rose 0.3% in September and plants added 9,000 jobs, but employment is still below January 2025
Semiconductors are up 28.4% in the third quarter while autos fell 3.0% in September. Manufacturing capacity use is 75.9%, 2.3 points below its long-run average.
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Four senators, two parties: Pentagon may lack cost data on 60% of contracts, they say
Warren, Grassley, Slotkin and Ernst asked Deputy Secretary Feinberg how DoD will get contractor cost and pricing data below the $10 million threshold. The 60% figure is the senators' own.
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Border apprehensions rose from 6,076 in January to 8,870 in August, after peaking at 10,011 in May
CBP's Southwest Border monthly counts are enforcement events, not unique people, and the figures are preliminary. September has not been posted.
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GAO could not verify 96% of grant savings on DOGE's $110 billion scoreboard
An August audit found DOGE did not use its stated method for most contract savings, and that a claimed $1.7 billion contract saving never happened. DOGE did not respond to GAO.
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Home electricity cost 18.31 cents a kWh in July, up 4.9%, and EIA sees PJM wholesale power up 41%
EIA's latest retail data and its October outlook point the same way, but wholesale prices are only part of a bill. DOE also announced up to $42 million for a proposed pipeline it says will lower costs.
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Gas is up 34% and airfare 22% in a year, while eggs fell 21%: where inflation is and isn't
Overall consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September, but the average hides a 55-point spread between gasoline and eggs. Car insurance and prescription drugs are also cheaper than a year ago.
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Rural Alaska diesel hits a record $7.97 and may be near $9, with village power plants burning it
The state's survey puts rural gasoline at $7.56 and diesel at a record $7.97, with single villages far higher. For a shop, lodge or fishing operation, the fuel line is now a survival number.
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Trump's Russian diesel deal draws fire from both parties, yet covers about two days of the world's fuel gap
Senators from both parties want it rescinded and the president has now waived Russia sanctions on top. The promised 1.8 million tons is small against a global shortfall, and U.S. diesel has already turned up to $6.276.
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China cuts Treasuries to an 18-year low and buys gold for a 23rd month as its stocks enter a bear market
Beijing held $590.7 billion of US Treasuries at the end of August, $109 billion less than a year earlier, while the central bank added 23 tonnes of gold in September. The viral "$75 billion dump" is not in the data.
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Mortgage rates fall to 7.32%, the first drop in weeks, but it saves just $22 a month on a $400,000 loan
Freddie Mac's 30-year average slipped from 7.40% as Treasury yields eased. A year ago it was 6.19%, and that gap is still worth about $300 a month.
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Valero earns $6.8 billion in one quarter, six times last year, as refining margin hits $39.24 a barrel
Refining profit per barrel tripled from a year ago, yet Valero shares were down about 4% by late morning. Here is where the money came from, and what a $39 barrel margin means for anyone who buys diesel.
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Meta gives Zuckerberg a way to pay California's billionaire tax and keep control: 8-year residency pledge
Reuters reports that Mark Zuckerberg agreed to stay in California for eight years in exchange for non-voting Class C shares he can sell if Proposition 40 passes on November 3. Prediction markets put its odds under 30%.
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What record-low layoffs actually mean for a restaurant, a trucking company and a contractor trying to hire
Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000, near the lowest since the 1960s, while payrolls grew by just 29,000 in September. Workers are staying put, and for owners that changes what a hire costs.
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Standard Chartered signs binding deal to buy all of Zodia Custody, as banks fight stablecoin yield
The bank signed definitive agreements on October 21 to acquire 100% of the crypto custodian. Zodia's software arm becomes a separate company under SC Ventures. Price and closing date were not disclosed.
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Stanford economists: California's billionaire tax could raise $30 billion and lose $39 billion
A working paper by Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh says departures and lost income tax could swamp the one-time 5% levy that voters decide on in November as Proposition 40.
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Bank of Korea holds at 3% as Lee orders a housing supply blitz and rules out looser mortgages
The central bank paused after July and August hikes but kept tightening on the table, with inflation at 2.9%. The president says a permit collapse, not credit, is driving prices.
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What the 315,000-barrel heating oil reserve loan actually means for a diner, a daycare and a landlord
The Energy Department will lend about a third of its Northeast reserve while delivered heating oil sits at $6.19, up 76% in a year. The loan is real, but even a 25-cent drop would erase under a tenth of the increase.
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OCC drops its stablecoin yield presumption but gives exchange rewards no safe harbor
The Comptroller of the Currency finalized the first GENIUS Act rule on Wednesday, effective January 18. The ban on stablecoin yield stays, and existing rewards programs will be judged case by case.
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Diesel turned back up to $6.276 as Ukraine's drones cut Russian exports by 77%
After three weekly drops, U.S. diesel rose 9.7 cents in the week to October 19. Russia shipped 141,000 barrels a day in September, against 608,000 a year earlier, and the volumes promised in the Trump-Putin diesel deal are a fraction of what is missing.
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France's 10-year yield tops 5% for the first time since 2002 as budget fight meets street unrest
The benchmark OAT briefly crossed 5% in Paris on Wednesday before easing to about 4.98%. Paris wants 54 billion euros of cuts, and the finance minister says he will bypass parliament again if needed.
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Mortgage rates fell for the first time in two months and applications still dropped 5.3%
The MBA's 30-year rate slipped 9 basis points to 7.41%, a move worth about $25 a month on a $400,000 loan. Purchase applications fell 7% on the week and sit 18% below last year.
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Housing starts fall 5.2% to 1.22 million as 43% of builders cut prices, the most since 2020
Census says the drop is inside its margin of error, but permits, completions and builder sentiment all point the same way. A look at what the official numbers do and do not prove.
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Importer sues to kill Trump's 50% Canada tariffs, says its cheese duty is $40 million a year
A New Jersey food importer filed at the Court of International Trade on Oct. 20, arguing a 1930 law cannot support the tariffs. The case could decide whether duties paid since Aug. 22 come back with interest.
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Amazon will hire 300,000+ for the holidays at a $20 floor, and local employers are the ones who feel it
Amazon says seasonal workers average $20 an hour and get first-day health coverage from January 1. For restaurants, retailers and trucking firms hiring for the same weeks, that sets the number to beat.
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USDA's $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief: what it covers while diesel sits above $6.30
The new program is smaller than the $12 billion bridge payment earlier this year, and the rates per crop will not be published until November. Here is what is known and what is not.
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Fed officials see the AI boom adding to inflation as a hold at 3.75%-4.00% is expected October 28
Chair Warsh calls AI investment a "shock" to prices and demand, and several regional presidents say rate hikes can cool inflation without a jobs hit. Here is what that means for borrowers.
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Canada's inflation rises to 3.1%, but without gasoline it is 2.2% and falling
Statistics Canada says September CPI accelerated on a 27.8% jump in gasoline prices, while the index excluding gasoline eased. The Bank of Canada decides on rates October 28.
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Saudi Arabia postpones its Oct. 26-29 investor conference to 2027 as Houthi attacks on the kingdom escalate
The Future Investment Initiative, the "Davos in the desert" that Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink and David Solomon were listed to attend, is off for this year. Brent was near $111 on our board at midday.
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100% bonus depreciation is permanent for property acquired after January 19, 2025: no phase-out is scheduled
The tax break behind the AI building boom, and behind every truck and oven bought this year, does not step down on a schedule. Only the carve-out for new factories has an end date.
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G7 finance leaders approve tabletop exercises for AI-driven cyberattacks on banks
Japan's finance minister said G7 ministers approved the drills at the IMF meetings in Bangkok. The IMF had warned that an AI-enabled attack on a critical service could erode confidence in a financial institution.
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Weekend brief: Republicans turn on Trump's Russia sanctions waiver, France faces a budget vote Tuesday
Futures reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday. Backlash grows over the Graham Act waiver, French unrest ahead of a Tuesday budget vote, Friday's closes and the calendar into the October 28 Fed decision.
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Weekend brief: Trump waives Russia sanctions, Nasdaq 100 closed down 5.5% on the week, Brent $109.86
Markets are shut until Sunday evening. Friday's close, a White House waiver of new Russia sanctions, oil near $110 on Hormuz attacks, and the calendar into the October 28 Fed decision.
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Deficit hits $1.99 trillion for fiscal 2026 as net interest tops $1.05 trillion
Treasury's year-end statement shows outlays up 5.5% against receipts up 3.2%, a 12% wider deficit, with interest now eating 19.5 cents of every tax dollar collected.
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What factories raising prices while orders stall actually means for a machine shop, a sign maker and a distributor
The Philadelphia Fed's October survey found 41% of manufacturers raising their own prices, the most since May 2025, while new orders slowed to 4.3. Here is the margin arithmetic for three kinds of supplier-side shop.
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What an 8.1% jump in import prices actually means for a gift retailer, an auto shop and a new restaurant
Imports excluding fuel cost 6.0% more than a year ago, and that is the part that lands on shelves, in parts bins and on equipment quotes. Here is the arithmetic for three kinds of shop, and what to do before you reorder.
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Import prices rise 1.1% in September and 8.1% on the year, the most since 2022, as fuel jumps 4.8%
Export prices rose 2.2% in the month and 11.6% in the year. Imported natural gas is up 96.5% from a year ago, and the cost is still working its way toward shelf prices.
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Philly Fed factory index falls to 20.9 as new orders collapse to 4.3, but 63% of firms see higher prices ahead
The Philadelphia Fed's October manufacturing index dropped from 37.8, still positive, while new orders fell 25 points. The prices-paid and future-prices readings are the part the Fed will read.
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Jobless claims hold at 199,000 with continuing claims at 1.71 million, giving the Fed no labor-market cover
Initial claims rose just 1,000 in the week ended October 10, and the four-week average is 198,500. A labor market that is not cracking leaves inflation as the only variable for the October 28 meeting.
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IEA to speed oil stock release: 20 million barrels of diesel, about 100 million still to come
The agency's governing board says 330 million barrels have been released so far under the March plan. The diesel tranche is small against what Hormuz has lost, and the total now exceeds the original 400 million.
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What a 1.3% jump in producer prices actually means for a restaurant, a trucker and a contractor
Suppliers raised prices 2.7% in a month on goods, while spending outside gasoline and autos grew 0.25%. Here is the margin arithmetic for three kinds of shop, and what to do before the October 28 Fed meeting.
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Producer prices jump 1.3% in September, 6.3% on the year, as energy rises 10.8% in a month
The largest monthly gain in producer prices since March 2022 came with a 0.8% rise in retail sales, but spending outside gasoline and autos grew only 0.25%.
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OCC says all nine largest national banks used vague "reputation risk" policies that could cut off customers
The Comptroller of the Currency's 47-page report reviewed about 100,000 complaints and 420,000 pages of documents. It announced no fines but is considering new rules.
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Beige Book: 11 of 12 Fed districts report moderate or robust price growth, and fuel surcharges are the channel
The Fed's October Beige Book says higher oil prices "permeated all District reports" and that contract renewals will push prices up further. Here is the count behind the headline and who it reaches first.
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Hormuz crude flows fall to 8.5 million barrels a day as a container ship sinks
Kpler puts crude through the strait 37% below the late-September pace we reported, after more than 20 vessels were attacked this month. The GFS Pride sank on Wednesday with all 21 crew evacuated.
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What 22% higher airfares actually mean for a trade-show exhibitor, a restoration crew and a small agency
Airline fares are up 22.4% on the year in the September CPI, but the index has been bouncing for months and sits below its May high. Here is what the number does to a travel budget, and where it is easy to overreact.
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What September's 9.1% gasoline jump means for a plumbing van fleet, a landscaper and a pizza shop
Gasoline is up 34.2% in a year in the CPI, but pump prices have fallen for three straight weeks. Here is what the fuel line costs three kinds of business, and why the September number is already out of date.
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Social Security raise confirmed at 3.6% for 2027: the September CPI-W reading that set it
The Social Security Administration set the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment at 3.6%, up from 2.8%. We checked it against the BLS index and worked out what is left after the Medicare Part B increase.
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September CPI runs 3.7% against 3.6% expected, with core at 2.6% and gasoline up 9.1% in the month
Headline inflation rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over twelve months, while core prices came in a tenth above forecast. What the 1.1-point gap between the two means depends on which index your lease, payroll and contracts follow.
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Bank of America's $1.21 billion penalty covers over $5 billion of unreported activity, 17 cents a share
Treasury says the bank admitted willfully violating the Bank Secrecy Act. The charge is about a third of one percent of its market value, so the lasting cost is in the remediation orders and the scrutiny, not the fine.
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Williams sees no 2027 hike, but the Fed's own median says the same and markets price more
The New York Fed president said Tuesday he sees one more increase this year and no reason to do more. That is the median of the Fed's September projections, not an outlier, and it sits a quarter point under what futures traders are paying for.
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What Dimon's rate warning means for a plumber's credit line, a bakery's loan and a store's building note
JPMorgan's CEO said Tuesday that going from 5% to 6% would hurt more than 4% to 5%. The payment arithmetic barely changes. What changes is how many loans have to reprice, and the answer depends on which rate yours follows.
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What the Russian diesel deal actually means for an owner-operator, a snow contractor and a mover
Washington is arguing over 1.8 million tons of Russian diesel that amounts to about three and a half days of U.S. demand. The price was already falling before it was announced. Here is what $6.20 diesel costs three kinds of business, and what to do while the politics play out.
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Hammack argues for small, quick hikes: December hike odds near 88% as the 2-year yield sits at 4.80%
The Cleveland Fed president told economists on Monday it is better to move in small steps early than to wait and need a bigger one. Markets read that as December, not October.
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What Wednesday's 3.6% CPI forecast means for a tenant with an escalator, an employer and a contractor
Economists expect September consumer prices up 0.6% on the month and 3.6% on the year, while core prices are forecast at 2.5%. The gap is fuel, and which number your lease, your payroll and your contracts follow decides what it costs you.
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What $6.04 heating oil, up 70% in a year, actually means for a diner, a daycare and an auto shop
The first weekly price of the heating season is in. Wholesale heating oil has more than doubled, but the delivered price is up 70%, and that gap changes the arithmetic. Here is what it costs three kinds of building, and what propane users face instead.
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Fed survey: median family income up 7%, but 8.6% of families now spend over 40% of income on debt
The Fed's 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances shows the typical family ahead and the stretched ones worse off than at any point since 2010. For owners, the detail is in the business-equity and late-payment tables.
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Trump sets up a White House panel to probe Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with a hearing on Nov. 5
A three-member "committee of inquiry" of administration officials will decide whether there is "cause" to remove a Federal Reserve governor, two days after the midterm election and a week after the Fed's next rate decision.
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Consumer sentiment slips to 46.3, but current conditions fell 12% and 24% of lower-income households say they will stop buying
Michigan's preliminary October reading looks flat on the surface. The detail underneath, from the survey's own gasoline report, shows a split between households that can absorb prices and those that cannot.
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Humana jumps 14.6% as 95% of its Medicare Advantage members land in 4-star plans for 2027, up from 20%
The 2027 Star Ratings turned Humana from the sector's problem child into its biggest winner, and the same data shows UnitedHealth and CVS losing ground on quality scores. Open enrollment starts October 15.
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Labor Department halts green-card filings for Microsoft, Adobe and six IT firms: what it covers and what it doesn't
The suspension applies to one step, permanent labor certification, not H-1B visas. Microsoft is trading in line with the Nasdaq, while Accenture and Cognizant are up more than 5%.
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NY Fed: tariffs added 2.9 points to goods inflation, and the slow half of the bill is still arriving
New York Fed researchers find each point of tariff lifts consumer goods prices about a quarter point after a year. Imported goods repriced within months, but U.S.-made goods take six to twelve.
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Fed minutes: all 12 voters backed the hike to 3.75%-4%, and most see another by year end
The minutes of the September 15-16 meeting show no dissent, a Committee that calls the policy rate "not restrictive or only mildly restrictive," and most participants leaning toward another increase by year end. The next meeting is October 27-28.
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NY Fed: households expect 3.9% inflation, a three-year high, and 5.5% more spending on 3.1% more income
The New York Fed's September survey puts one-year inflation expectations at the highest since May 2023. The part owners should read is the gap between what households expect to earn and what they expect to spend.
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EIA: heating oil to average $5.26 a gallon this winter, 34% higher, as 4.1 million oil-heated homes face a $2,115 bill
The EIA's winter outlook puts oil-heated households up 21% while natural gas homes fall 9%. For a small building that burns thousands of gallons, the same forecast is a five-figure line item.
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Union Pacific's $85 billion Norfolk Southern deal: the rail merger clock runs to February 2027
CEO Jim Vena says he is "99.99%" sure the merger clears. The regulator's own calendar says nothing is decided before opening comments land on November 18, and shippers have the most to argue about.
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U.S. trade deficit widens to $105.6 billion in August as imports jump $17.2 billion
The deficit rose $12.7 billion in one month. Capital goods, crude oil and gold made up much of the import surge, and the gold part does not count toward GDP.
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Trump's diesel order targets red-dye rules, but the 24.4-cent federal tax is the number to watch at $6.32 a gallon
The White House is preparing an order to widen access to tax-exempt dyed diesel as the pump price sits $2.63 above a year ago. What it could and could not save a farmer or a trucker.
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Iran's oil minister resigns as exports fall to zero; Houthis claim an Aramco strike, yet WTI slips 2% to $91.6
Three Gulf developments landed within 48 hours, and crude fell anyway. The Red Sea route Saudi Arabia just reopened is the one now under threat.
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Nasdaq hits a record 27,409 while the 10-year sits near 5.30% and mortgages cost 7.28%
Stocks are at highs at the same moment borrowing costs are at multiyear highs. At midday, the Nasdaq Composite set a record, oil fell, and the euro slid to 1.12 on French and Spanish politics.
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OPEC+ holds November output steady; its core seven pump 5 million barrels a day below prewar levels
The quota decision changes nothing on paper. The real constraint is the gap between what Gulf producers are allowed to pump and what they can ship, and the G7 reserve release covers only about a sixth of it.
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What the G7 diesel release actually means for a mover, a concrete contractor and a food distributor
Diesel futures fell as much as 20 cents on the G7 deal, then gave back about 40% of the drop. Even the remaining 12 cents covers less than 5% of the $2.63 a gallon diesel has risen in a year. Here is what that does to three fuel bills.
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Price cuts hit 20.8% of US listings, a four-year high, but the rate jump since last fall would need a 9% cut to offset
Realtor.com counts 1.16 million homes for sale, up 5.5%, and the West has replaced the Midwest as the soft spot. Prices per square foot are down 1.7%; the rise in mortgage rates adds about $251 a month on a $400,000 loan.
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France's 10-year yield touches 4.99%, the highest since 2002, and now pays about 76 basis points more than Spain
The gap over German Bunds hit 152 basis points, the widest since 2011, and default insurance rose to 81 basis points. The euro barely moved, which says this is a French credit problem, not a euro-zone one.
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Fed's Logan wants rates 50 basis points or more higher, on a jobs picture that weakened the next morning
The Dallas Fed president, a voter this year, said Thursday night the Fed's range needs to rise from 3.75%-4% to at least 4.25%-4.5%. Her case leaned on 4.1% unemployment; Friday's report put it at 4.2% with 29,000 jobs added.
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World food prices rise 1.5% to 136.0 in September; cereals jump 5.1% and vegetable oils run 18% above a year ago
The FAO index is 5.8% higher than a year ago, but almost all of the increase is in crops. Dairy is 19% cheaper than last September and meat is flat, which splits the cost picture for a fryer-heavy kitchen and a pizzeria.
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Google raises the Pixel 10a to $599, a 20% jump that makes the budget phone the hardest hit by memory costs
A day after Samsung's flagship increase, Google added $100 to its seven-month-old budget model. The same $100 is a 20% rise on a $499 phone, nearly double Samsung's percentage.
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The "1.2 million fewer men working" figure is mostly January's population reset; since then men are up 147,000
Household survey data show male employment fell 1.46 million in a single month, January, when the BLS rebased its population estimates. From January to September, men gained jobs and women lost a few.
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Small-business health plans face a 14% median rate increase in 2027, more than big employers expect
Insurers selling to firms with 50 or fewer workers are asking for a median 14% increase. On the average small-firm family plan, that is about $3,650 a year per covered worker, before anyone changes the plan.
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Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.8%, but energy at 18.8% supplies almost half of it; core is 2.5%
Eurostat's September flash puts euro area inflation at a three-year high. Energy is 9% of the basket but contributed about 1.7 points. Strip it out and prices rose 2.3%, which is the split the ECB, now at 2.5%, has to weigh.
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G7 agrees to release 100 million barrels, but only half is diesel, about 42% of what Washington asked for
The G7 will put 50 million barrels of diesel and 50 million of crude into the market over four months. Heating oil futures fell about 4%, yet the diesel portion is smaller than the US request and may not be new supply at all.
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Factory orders rise 0.1% in August to $663.5 billion; strip out refineries and they fell
Petroleum products added $0.9 billion, more than the whole $0.7 billion gain. Underneath, business equipment orders jumped 1.6% while orders for construction materials and consumer durables slipped.
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US natural gas output hits a record 137 Bcf a day in July as Permian wells and new pipes add supply
EIA says Texas and New Mexico added 1.7 Bcf a day in a single month. With oil above $90, gas now costs about a fifth as much as crude for the same energy.
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What September's 29,000-job report actually means for a restaurant payroll, a contractor's bids and a holiday store
Average pay rose just 3.0% from a year ago, slower than inflation. But restaurant and hotel pay is still up 3.9% and construction pay 4.2%, so the cooling headline does not reach every payroll.
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October Fed hike odds fall to 17% after weak jobs data, but futures still price a December hike above 75%
The jobs report pushed the next rate hike back rather than taking it off the table. For a business on a prime-based credit line, the delay is worth about $50; the level of rates matters far more.
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Ford holds the No. 3 US sales spot by 1,195 vehicles; Cox had Hyundai ahead by more than 7,000
Ford sold 509,764 vehicles in the third quarter, down 6.6%. Hyundai's group rose 5.4% to 506,200. The race was decided by what each side counts, and Cox missed both numbers by about 5,000.
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US adds 29,000 jobs in September, unemployment rises to 4.2%; revisions cut 60,000 more
Payrolls missed the 90,000 forecast and July turned negative. Hourly pay rose 3.0% from a year ago, slower than 3.4% inflation, and the 2-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points.
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Puerto Rico power hits a record 33.86 cents a kWh, 85% above the mainland average, as fuel costs rise
The Energy Bureau approved a 5.28-cent increase through December, lifting an 800 kWh household bill from $229 to $271. With 63% of the island's energy from petroleum, oil prices drive the bill.
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UnitedHealthcare, Aetna and Humana shrink 2027 Medicare Advantage choice; Aetna to shed about 950,000 members
UnitedHealthcare will offer both HMO and PPO plans to 66% of members, down from 70%, and Aetna exits two states. Enrollment is expected to fall 6%, about 2.2 million people who will be choosing new plans and, often, new doctors.
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Trump Accounts open for 60 million more children; for employers, the $2,500 limit is per worker, not per child
Treasury finished auto-enrolling every eligible child on Thursday. Proposed IRS rules let employers put in up to $2,500 a year per employee free of income tax, but not free of payroll tax, and owners of most small firms cannot use it for themselves.
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Medicare's GLOBE drug-price rule now hits four drugmakers; projected savings fall 96% to $440 million
The final rule exempts companies that signed pricing deals with the White House. What is left saves about $80 million a year, and the part that touches doctors' offices is a coinsurance cut in a quarter of the country.
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Brent jumps 4.6% to $102.55 on a third US carrier; its gap over US crude widens to $9.31
Oil rose after a report that a third aircraft-carrier group is heading to the Middle East. The $4.51 rise in Brent is about 11 cents a gallon of crude cost, landing on diesel already at $6.38.
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Fed's Jefferson says next move "may take more time"; the 10-year is up 28 basis points since the hike
The Fed vice chair put PCE inflation at 3.4% and flagged upside risks, but did not push for an October increase. The bond market has already tightened more since September 16 than the Fed did that day.
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Samsung raises Galaxy S26 prices by $100: an 11% jump on the base phone, 7.7% on the Ultra
The memory shortage driven by AI data centers has reached Samsung's flagship phones in the US. The flat $100 hits the cheapest model hardest, and the 1TB Ultra rises $200 to $2,000.
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Canada fast-tracks 1 million barrel-a-day Pacific Link pipeline; Canada supplies two-thirds of US crude imports
Ottawa named Pacific Link its first project of national interest, with federal conditions due by September 1, 2027. EIA data shows the pipeline could move about a quarter of what Canada now ships to the US.
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US slows aircraft-part exports to China, Reuters says; spare parts for 200 Boeing jets are now a bargaining chip
Commerce has slowed licences, is capping parts for COMAC and drafted a licence rule for hydraulic fluid, sources told Reuters. Boeing shares rose 1% anyway. Here is why the market shrugged and who carries the risk.
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Constellation stock up 2.3% on Amazon's 690-megawatt nuclear deal; only 190 megawatts of it is new power
Amazon signed a 20-year contract for about 35% of Calvert Cliffs' future output. The new capacity arrives in 2030 to 2032, too late for the grid's 2028 shortfall, and no price was disclosed.
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GM sales fell 39,373 in the third quarter, and EVs fell 41,028: its gas vehicles were up 0.3%
GM's headline 5.5% drop is an EV story. Its own model table shows electric sales down 62% from last year's tax-credit rush, while work vans and heavy-duty pickups also fell.
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California's No Robo Bosses Act: from July 2027, AI cannot fire or discipline on its own, $500 per violation
Newsom signed SB 947 after vetoing an earlier version. The bill text has no headcount threshold, so a 10-person shop that disciplines off a software score is covered the same as a big chain.
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Natural gas storage rises 64 Bcf to 3,415 Bcf; the cushion over normal shrinks to 79 Bcf
The build missed the five-year norm for the week by about 16 Bcf. EIA's regional table shows why: Gulf Coast salt caverns pulled gas out while the East and Midwest kept filling.
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What steel, copper and wire prices up 9% to 21% this year actually mean for an electrician, an HVAC shop and a sign maker
Factory buyers told ISM on Thursday that prices jumped again in September, led by steel and aluminum. Government data show what that already did to the materials on a contractor's quote: wire and cable up 9.6% since January, steel mill products up 20.9%.
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ISM manufacturing holds at 54.5%, but its prices index jumps 6.8 points to 77.9%, back to the start of the Iran war
The headline barely moved and missed the 55 forecast. Underneath, 58.6% of factory buyers paid more in September, steel and aluminum stayed on the short-supply list, and backlogs rose. That is the line contractors will feel.
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Jobless claims 197,000; people on benefits drop to 1.701 million as September job cuts hit 43,281
Layoffs stay rare and the unemployed are getting rehired, but Challenger counts the weakest September hiring plans since 2011. For an owner trying to fill a job, the pool of people out of work keeps shrinking.
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US tells France and Germany to release diesel or face export ban; 120 million barrel ask tops US stocks
Washington wants Europe to free up 120 million barrels over six months, Reuters reported, as China halts October fuel exports and Brent returns above $100. EIA data shows how little US diesel goes to France and Germany directly.
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South Korea's $200 billion US package: only the $54 billion Alaska LNG project comes with a price tag
Trump announced up to $200 billion of Korean investment in Alaska LNG, eight nuclear plants and a 6-gigawatt Texas power plant. The headline equals Korea's entire strategic pledge, and the one priced project still lacks the buyers it needs.
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Fed's Kashkari lifts his neutral-rate estimate to 3.25%, leaving policy only about half a point above it
Kashkari said Wednesday that softer PCE data did not change his view that inflation is too high. His higher neutral estimate matters more than the quote: it means today's 3.75% to 4% range is less restrictive than it looks.
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$500 Obamacare refunds go to 950,000 people; the exchange fee behind them drops to 1.9% from 2.5% next year
The refunds come from a surplus of HealthCare.gov user fees, charged at 2.5% of premiums this year. They mostly go to people above 400% of the poverty line, which includes many self-employed owners who lost all subsidy help in 2026.
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Senate permitting deal would make data centers of 20 megawatts or more pay the full cost of their power
The same day the Senate blocked a House data center bill, four committee leaders released a 417-page permitting deal with a stricter rule. The federal transmission part could take up to about two and a half years after enactment to reach rates.
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Skilled trades need 1.7 million hires a year and training covers 55 in 100; California loses 17,784 a year
A report backed by Ford, Google, BlackRock and Carhartt puts HVAC job growth at three times the national rate. The gap is regional: Texas and North Carolina gain trades workers every year while California and New York lose them.
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Fed's Cook: inflation "too high for too long," as rural households spend a quarter of budgets getting around
Speaking in Asheville, Cook backed the September hike and pointed at energy and housing. With diesel at $6.38, up $2.63 in a year, rural trucks and trades carry the biggest share of that bill.
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Colombia surprises with a hike to 12.25% on a 4-2-1 vote, keeping an 8.25-point cushion over the Fed
Most economists expected a hold. Inflation climbed back to 6.2% in August, analysts see 6.8% by December, and one board member wanted a half-point move.
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PJM shelves its 6.8-gigawatt data center power auction after FERC calls the plan a "mess"
The biggest US grid suspended a backstop auction that could have cost up to about $1.4 billion a year at its price cap. The unresolved question is who pays for data center power.
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What $3 natural gas actually means for a laundromat, a restaurant and a bakery paying $13 for the same gas
Producers say the U.S. goes into winter with record output and full storage, and wholesale gas sits near $3. But EIA data show commercial customers paid $13.03 per thousand cubic feet in July, up 2% on a year earlier while Henry Hub fell 10%.
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Hormuz crude is back at 13.5 million barrels a day, but fuel shipments are still down 81%
Kpler data show crude through the strait back at its prewar baseline. Refined products are at 677,000 barrels a day against 3.6 million before the war, which is why U.S. diesel is still $6.38.
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Texas oil executives see WTI at $88 by year-end and $79 in two years, below today's $93
The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows output rising but the people pumping the oil pricing in a decline. Nearly half expect diesel to stay above 2025 levels for more than a year.
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USDA finds 2.10 billion bushels of old corn, up 35%, and December corn drops about 23 cents to $4.99
The quarterly Grain Stocks report showed corn stocks on September 1 up 544 million bushels from a year ago, with commercial storage up 44%. On a 1,000-acre farm, the day's price drop is worth roughly $42,000 of crop value.
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Analysts raised their 2026 oil call to $83.90 WTI, which quietly implies about $80 for the rest of the year
A higher full-year forecast sounds bullish. But WTI has averaged $85.19 so far in 2026, so the Reuters poll's new number only works if crude averages near $80 from here, well below the $93.60 it trades at today.
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Fed watchdog clears the $2.4 billion renovation of crimes, but finds no price cap after $2 billion of contracts
The Fed's inspector general found no grounds for a criminal referral and no misconduct. The report also found the Board never set a guaranteed maximum price, and four mechanical and electrical packages came in nearly $500 million over estimate.
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Treasury opens a portal for 9.3 million defaulted student loan borrowers; employers handle the garnishments
Treasury and the Education Department launched an online Defaulted Loans Support Center. Defaults are up about 50% from 2016, and the release gives growth rates for people leaving default but not how many actually have.
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Oil climbs 2% despite a "crude build": the SPR drained almost exactly what commercial tanks gained
WTI rose to about $91.50 after reports that Washington will not ease Iran sanctions. The EIA's 900,000-barrel commercial crude build was matched by an 800,000-barrel draw from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is now 30% smaller than a year ago.
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Bank of England: AI debt hit $450 billion this year and hyperscalers took 47% of sterling bond sales
The Financial Policy Committee says the risk of several vulnerabilities breaking at once has risen, and puts numbers on how much of the AI build-out is now borrowed money, including $700 billion of data centers expected to be financed by private credit.
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German inflation jumps to 3.3%, but energy did about a third of it and core held at 2.4%
Energy prices rose 14.9% from a year earlier in Germany's September flash reading. Services inflation eased for a third month. That split is what the ECB, now at 2.5% after two hikes, has to weigh.
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Diesel stocks fall to 105 million barrels, 14% below normal, as demand runs 5% above last year
EIA data show distillate inventories fell 2.3 million barrels while the four-week demand average rose to 3.8 million barrels a day. Russia also extended its diesel export ban to October 31.
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Mortgage applications fall 6% as the MBA rate hits 7.3%; ARM share climbs to 10.3%
Refinance applications fell 9% and purchases 4% in the week to Sept. 25. Borrowers are turning to adjustable-rate loans, but the 5/1 ARM rate jumped 37 basis points in the same week, twice the rise in the fixed rate.
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Fed finalizes its stress test overhaul 6-1; its own staff put the capital cut at about 1%
The Fed will publish its models, take public comment on scenarios and average two years of results into big banks' capital buffers. Staff say that trims buffers by about 1% of required capital and halves their year-to-year swings. Governor Barr voted no.
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ADP: private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, and firms with 50 to 499 workers added 54,000 of them
Hiring beat the 68,000 forecast and rebounded from a revised 36,000 in August. Base pay growth of 3.2% came out the same morning PCE inflation printed 3.4%.
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Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, but August's goods deficit hit $132.6 billion, the widest of 2026
Revisions lifted second-quarter growth by 0.7 point. The August trade data point the other way for the third quarter, though much of the jump was capital goods imports, which GDP partly adds back as investment.
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August PCE: core at 3.0%, below the 3.3% forecast, but the revision did that, not August
Revised July already stood at 3.4% and 3.0%, so annual inflation did not fall in August. Spending jumped 0.9% while real disposable income was flat, pushing the saving rate to 4.1%, its lowest since late 2022.
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Goldman's private credit fund gets 2.03% withdrawal requests while big rivals face 10% to 16%
A tender filing shows GS Credit took in about twice as much new money as investors asked to pull. It also says new direct loans to companies now cost about 0.25 point more than at the end of 2025, with tighter terms.
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TVA gets the first U.S. permit to build a small modular reactor; Canada's twin costs about $4.3 billion
The NRC cleared TVA's 300-megawatt GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 at Clinch River, Tennessee, four months early. TVA has not given a price, but Ontario's first identical unit is budgeted at C$6.1 billion.
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Congress votes to end the penny: cash sales can round to the nearest 5 cents, card sales stay exact
The Common Cents Act, passed by the Senate on a voice vote Monday, lets stores round cash totals up or down to the nickel under a fixed rule. For a counter business, the rule matters more than the coin: rounding only in the customer's favor costs about 2 cents a cash sale.
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Fed and FDIC find no flaws in 15 big banks' living wills, including PNC, Truist and U.S. Bancorp
Regulators cleared the 2025 resolution plans of 15 banking groups with more than $250 billion in assets, and closed a BNP Paribas repo shortcoming first flagged in 2022. The next plans are due July 1, 2028.
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August PCE due Wednesday at an expected 3.7%, but BEA revisions could cut July's core to about 3%
Economists expect a 0.3% monthly rise in both headline and core PCE prices. A methodology change to three categories may lower past readings, so a smaller annual number would not mean inflation is slowing.
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Fed's Williams sees one more hike "late this year" and inflation at 2% only in 2028
The New York Fed president put 2026 inflation at 3.5% and said there is "no need for urgency." Read in full, the speech points past October, while prediction markets still lean toward an October move.
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Case-Shiller home prices up 1.9% in July, but 12 of 19 metros slipped on the month and real prices fell again
The national annual gain picked up from 1.6%, led by Chicago at 6.9%. After inflation, prices fell for a 14th straight month, while a buyer's monthly payment on the same loan is about $193 higher than a year ago.
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Crude falls 3% as U.S. offers last 40 million SPR barrels, but diesel futures rise and pump diesel is $6.38
The Energy Department's final exchange tranche would take the reserve to about 245 million barrels, under the 252.4 million line that limits non-emergency sales. It adds crude, and the shortage truckers feel is in diesel.
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Treasury will open 60 million Trump Accounts around Oct. 1, but those accounts cannot take employer money
The temporary rules create "auto accounts" for every eligible child. Only 5.6 million sign-up forms had been processed by July 30. The catch for employers: auto accounts accept only Treasury-run contributions until a parent claims them.
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Michigan LIFT's $3 billion is Ford orders, JPMorgan debt and a 2036 goal, not grants
Ford, JPMorganChase, the State of Michigan, Michigan Central and Newlab launched a supplier platform on Tuesday. For a Michigan parts maker or machine shop, the money comes as purchase orders and loans, and only after a buyer says yes.
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Student loan autopay rate cut of 1 point extended to Dec. 31: what it saves on $30,000 and $60,000
The Education Department gave federal borrowers three more months to enroll in autopay and lock in a 1 percentage point rate reduction through June 30, 2028. On a $30,000 balance at 6.54%, that is about $444 of interest over 18 months.
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Fed's Barr in Detroit: AI could push the neutral rate up, and more hikes are likely with prime at 7%
Barr counted only two months of 2% core inflation in the last 20 and argued an AI productivity boom would lift, not lower, the rate the Fed needs. With the 2-year at 4.92%, here is what each quarter point costs a $250,000 prime-based line.
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Canada's GDP flat in July as a refinery outage offsets a 1.3% construction gain; August seen up 0.2%
Statistics Canada says real GDP was essentially unchanged in July, with 10 of 20 sectors growing. Several of the drags were one-off shutdowns, which matters for the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision.
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Junk bond yields hit 8.03% in a 91-point September selloff: Treasuries first, spreads last week
The high-yield index yield rose more in September than in any full month of the past three years. ICE BofA index data shows the 91 basis point jump in yields was mostly Treasuries until Sept. 22, then credit spreads took over, with CCC debt hit hardest.
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Medicare Advantage premiums to fall 16.5% in 2027, a drop of $2.37 a month, as the Part D subsidy ends
CMS projects the average Medicare Advantage premium at $12.00 next year, from $14.37. The percentage is large but the dollars are small, and two in ten enrollees cannot keep their plan at the same or a lower price.
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China cuts a policy lending rate to 1.5% and subsidizes first-home mortgages, capped at about $1,490 a year
Beijing's new package steers cheap credit to policy banks, tech, farms and small firms and pays one point of mortgage interest for first-time buyers. It is not a benchmark rate cut, and U.S.-listed China funds slipped about 1%.
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Consumer confidence falls 6.7 points to 81.9 as inflation expectations climb to 6.1%
The Conference Board index missed forecasts by seven points and more households now call their finances bad than good. Restaurants still top the list of planned service spending, while travel and entertainment plans cooled.
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What the drop in job openings actually means for a restaurant, a contractor and a retailer hiring for the holidays
Employers posted 7.08 million openings in August, the fewest since March. Underneath, restaurant and hotel openings are down 24% on a year ago while construction and retail openings are up 18% and 25%, so the same report means a hiring window for one owner and a tighter market for another.
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FHFA home prices rose 0.3% in July and 2.6% in a year; Middle Atlantic up 6.3%, Mountain up 0.6%
The national gain hides a tenfold spread between regions. On a median-priced home, the jump in mortgage rates since last fall costs a buyer about three times as much each month as the rise in the price itself.
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Treasury adds methanol to its Venezuela oil licenses; its own FAQ had excluded it from "oil"
OFAC reissued three Venezuela general licenses on Monday without saying what changed. We compared them with the August versions: the change is five methanol tariff codes added to the list of permitted petrochemicals.
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Texas factory output jumps to 29.5, but costs rose 4.9% in a year while selling prices rose 3%
The Dallas Fed's September survey shows the fastest production growth in months, a raw materials price index nearly double its long-run average, and a squeeze on margins that firms say they cannot fully pass on.
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Georgia suspends its gas tax for 30 days: 37.3 cents off diesel, but farm equipment on dyed diesel gains nothing
Gov. Kemp's order removes 33.3 cents a gallon on gasoline and 37.3 cents on diesel from Sept. 29 to Oct. 29. It is Georgia's third fuel-tax holiday this year. Here is who actually saves and how much.
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IRS rules "351 conversion" ETF swaps are taxable and flags box-spread funds; notice warns action could be retroactive
Treasury and the IRS issued a ruling and a 26-page notice on Monday targeting tax-aware fund strategies. The line most readers will skip: future guidance "could apply" to trades already done.
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Saudi pipeline back to 3.5 million barrels a day and Brent gives up its spike; November oil still costs $7 more than December
Loadings have resumed at Yanbu, the Red Sea end of Saudi Arabia's Hormuz bypass. The futures curve and the government's own reserve data show why that pipeline now matters more than the U.S. emergency stockpile.
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SEC staff warn private credit funds on valuations as fund holdings hit $270 billion, up nearly 60% since 2020
The statement changes no rules. What it does is tell BDCs and interval funds to show investors how much of their income is interest paid in cash and how much is interest just added to the loan.
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Fed's Cook: AI price pressure is spreading to electricity, water and goods, and productivity won't fix it this year
Governor Lisa Cook says the Fed should not chase AI chip prices, but electricity and water are up about 5% and core goods are running above 3%. She left the door open to more hikes.
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Qatar extends LNG force majeure to end-November, yet U.S. gas trades near $3 with storage 95 Bcf above normal
The world's second-largest LNG exporter has shipped a fraction of its usual cargoes since the Iran war. The shortage abroad has not reached U.S. prices, and that gap matters for anyone heating a building this winter.
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Trump to unveil $15 billion Iowa steel mill; its 7.5 million tons would land in an industry running at 78% of capacity
Mesabi Metallics plans a vertically integrated mill fed by its Minnesota iron ore mine. AISI data shows U.S. mills already have about a fifth of their capacity sitting idle.
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Apollo's "agentic bank run": checking pays 0.07% while T-bills pay 4.24%, and bank stocks are down 5.7% in September
Apollo's chief economist says AI assistants could sweep household cash out of low-rate bank accounts. FDIC data shows how wide the gap is, and why it matters to anyone who borrows from a bank.
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Adobe sees record $275.1 billion holiday season online, but October alone is forecast at $95.8 billion
Adobe forecasts U.S. online sales up 6.7% for November and December. For small sellers, the bigger shifts are an October nearly a third the size of the whole season and discounts no deeper than last year.
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What heating oil at twice last year's price actually means for a diner, a greenhouse and a landlord who pays the heat
Wholesale heating oil is up $2.56 a gallon from a year ago as the Iran standoff lifts oil again. Propane is up 17 cents and natural gas fell today. Which fuel heats the building decides whether this winter costs an owner $1,700 more or $11,500 more.
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What the fuel-economy rollback actually means for a cleaning company's vans, a used-car lot and a repair shop
Washington says the new standards cut about $930 from the average new vehicle by 2031. Its fuel math assumed gasoline near $3. At today's $4.48, a van driven 20,000 miles a year that loses one mile per gallon gives the savings back in under five years.
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Office CMBS delinquency hits 13.2%, highest since at least 2019; half of troubled loans were still paying
CRED iQ data show 71% of distressed office debt is a refinancing problem, not a missed-payment problem. With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, that gap is getting wider, not narrower.
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Bessent hires David Zervos, a vocal advocate of lower rates, as the bond market prices another Fed hike
The Jefferies strategist joins Treasury as a counselor until about April 2027. He backs Treasury's long-bond buybacks, which matter more now that the 10-year is above 5.2%.
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U.S.-China "30-for-30" lists: 77 U.S. tariff lines against 1,619 Chinese ones, with no rates and no start date
The two governments published $30 billion product lists on each side. The documents set no tariff cut and no timetable, value the goods at 2024 trade, and leave ordinary soybeans off China's list.
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Trump weighs diesel export ban "very seriously" and concedes it could lift gasoline; Goldman puts it at 30 cents
The president said a ban "can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline." Goldman estimates diesel relief first, then gasoline pressure once storage fills. Businesses with gasoline fleets are the ones on the wrong side of that trade.
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Soybean crushers pay up to $1 over futures as Iowa's harvest sits at 2%, even though the U.S. harvest is ahead
Rain has left western Corn Belt plants short of beans and pushed October soymeal to a contract high. USDA data show the shortage is regional: the national soybean harvest was 12% done, ahead of the 8% average, while Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio lag.
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U.S. oil rigs rise to 455, up 7% on the year while crude is up about 62%: drillers are barely responding
Baker Hughes counted three more oil rigs this week. Set against the price of oil, the response is small, and weekly output is still flat near 13.94 million barrels a day.
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Next week's jobs report is expected to show payrolls halving to about 85,000, with the 10-year yield at 5.17%
The August PCE inflation reading lands Wednesday and September payrolls on Friday, Oct. 2. This week's bond selloff was concentrated at the long end: the 10-year rose 16 basis points while the 2-year rose 5.
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Ban on Canadian beer, wine and spirits starts Tuesday; bottles already in bond still pay the 50% tariff
From 12:01 a.m. on Sept. 29 most Canadian alcohol can no longer enter the U.S. For the 245,223 independent bars and 31,725 liquor stores we count, the question is what is already on the shelf and what the distributor is still holding.
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U.S.-built cars fall to 28.4% of Canadian sales, and the steepest drop is at foreign brands' U.S. plants
JD Power Canada data show U.S.-built share down 7 points in a year. For automakers with no Canadian factory it fell to 4.9% from 17.7%. For Ford, GM, Stellantis, Honda and Toyota it slipped only 3.1 points.
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Saudi crude exports hit 6 million barrels a day, the most since the Iran war began; Brent falls 3.4%
Kpler data show Saudi shipments up almost 80% from August even with the East-West pipeline shut. Flows through Hormuz are still about 3.8 million barrels a day short of pre-war levels.
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Fed's Hammack warns of an "inflationary mindset"; by consumers' own 4.6% forecast, policy is not yet tight
The Cleveland Fed president, a 2026 voter, says rates must be restrictive. Against August CPI of 3.4% the fed funds rate is about half a point above inflation, and against what consumers now expect it is below it.
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CFOs raise their 2026 price forecast to 5.3%, and small firms are twice as likely to be credit-constrained
The Fed-run CFO Survey found margins mostly normal and only 19% of firms held back by financing. Small companies are the exception, but "constrained" mostly means skipping new business, not failing to cover costs.
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Greer says U.S. and China agreed on farm goods and medical devices; no tariff change until Monday details
The trade representative said the two sides have picked goods to trade on better terms, shielded from future tariff fights. No products, rates or dates yet, so importers have nothing to act on before Monday.
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Natural gas averaged $2.93 this summer, down 6%, while diesel is up 74% from a year ago
New EIA figures show the energy squeeze is a diesel problem, not a natural gas one. Record production and solar kept gas cheap through the hottest July on record.
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What consumers' 4.6% inflation expectations actually mean for a restaurant, a furniture store and a salon
Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 48.1 in September and year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%. Today's spending is holding up better than the outlook. Here is the arithmetic for three kinds of business.
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U.S. crude trades $12.62 under Brent, the widest gap since May, as diesel ban talk hits refiners
WTI's discount to the global benchmark has not been narrower than $4 since July 7. Higher freight explains about $8 of today's gap. The rest is the market pricing a U.S. refinery slowdown if diesel exports are banned.
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Durable goods orders flat at $338.6 billion in August, but business equipment orders jump 1.6%
The headline was held down by aircraft. Orders for core capital goods, the figure economists use to track business investment, rose to $87.6 billion and are running 10.6% ahead of last year.
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Santa Teresa reopens to Mexican cattle, but ground beef at $6.92 a pound won't fall soon
The biggest livestock crossing on the Mexican border reopens after more than a year of screwworm closures. At 750 to 1,600 head a day and five to eight months to slaughter weight, restaurants should not expect cheaper beef before spring.
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Commercial property sales hit $107 billion in August, but $70 billion was mergers; the rest fell 21%
MSCI data show one apartment REIT merger drove a 127% jump in volume. Strip it out and ordinary property sales shrank, while the gap between cap rates and the 10-year yield has narrowed since.
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The president has filed a trade report every 40 days for a year. None of them can be read by a computer.
We downloaded all 17 presidential disclosures. A 34-page filing contains exactly 34 bytes of text, and every one of them is a page break. Congress publishes the same form as data. The White House publishes photographs.
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Banxico holds at 6.5% as its cushion over the Fed shrinks to 2.5 points and the peso slides to 17.58
Mexico's central bank stood pat for a third straight meeting. The Fed's hike has narrowed the rate gap that supported the peso, and Banxico now sees inflation reaching target six months later than it said in June.
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We checked the viral "three things just broke" argument against the government's own numbers
Twelve claims about oil, the Treasury and the stock market. Some are exactly right, including one nobody disputes. Four are wrong by a wide margin. And the two he undersells are the two that should worry you most.
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What $4.48 gasoline actually means for a plumber's vans, a cleaning crew and a mobile groomer
Regular gasoline is up $1.32 a gallon from a year ago, according to AAA. For a service business that drives to its customers, that works out to about $2 a job. Here is the math, and the one change that pays for it.
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The 5-year Treasury is up 90 basis points since spring; auto loan rates have risen only about 20
Auto lenders price off the 5- and 10-year Treasury, and the 5-year hit 4.99% on Wednesday. The loan averages people are quoting were set when it was near 4.1%, which matters for any contractor about to finance a truck.
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Google pledges to train 25,000 veterans for the trades; the reported funding is at most about $400 each
Google.org is funding Hiring Our Heroes, Student Veterans of America and the Home Builders Institute to move veterans and military spouses into skilled trades. It is a useful pipeline, but small next to a construction labor gap the industry puts at 349,000 workers this year.
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The emergency oil reserve is at a 44-year low. The reason is on the record.
The SPR has fallen for 26 straight weeks to 284.6 million barrels, the lowest since October 1982. It is being passed around as a mystery. It is an authorized exchange, and exchanged barrels have to come back.
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Oil rises nearly 3% after Houthi missiles target Saudi Arabia's Yanbu hub, but diesel futures barely move
Brent traded near $106 and WTI near $94.50 after Saudi Arabia intercepted six missiles aimed at Taif and the Red Sea port it now relies on to bypass Hormuz. Diesel futures rose less than 1%, and that gap is the number truckers should watch.
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Energy Department picks 31 grid projects for $1.9 billion; recipients pay the other $3.35 billion
The upgrades are meant to squeeze more than 23 gigawatts of extra capacity out of existing power lines. The release puts no number on bill savings, and commercial power already costs 4.8% more than a year ago.
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Hyundai is set to outsell Ford for the first time, 511,421 to 504,172 in Cox's third-quarter forecast
Cox Automotive expects Ford's U.S. sales to fall 7.1% as Hyundai's rise 6.5%. Its percentages imply a 70,000-vehicle swing in a year, and they show Toyota closing most of its gap with GM.
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Natural gas storage rises 53 Bcf to 3,351 Bcf, above the 5-year average but 146 Bcf below last year
The EIA's weekly report shows the U.S. has a cushion over the five-year norm heading into heating season but a thinner one than a year ago. Futures rose more than 5% on the day.
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Fed's Paulson says "modest further tightening" may be needed, and blames part of it on AI
The Philadelphia Fed president puts underlying inflation at 2.5% to 3% with little sign of closing the gap, and points to a 24% jump in computer import prices tied to the AI buildout.
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U.S. current account deficit widens to $246 billion; income paid to foreign investors hits a record
The second-quarter gap grew 15.7% on a jump in goods imports. The line that matters for the bond market is smaller: America now pays foreigners more in interest and dividends than it earns from them.
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Jobless claims fall to 197,000 and the 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.44%, its highest since 2004
A second straight week under 200,000 keeps the labor market looking tight, and traders now price a better than 75% chance of an October Fed hike. For borrowers on prime-based lines, that is money.
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Hassett asks why the Fed is hiking with core inflation at 2%; that 2% leans on a flat June
The White House economic adviser questioned last week's rate rise and criticized officials calling for more. Government data show core prices ran at about a 3% pace in July and August, and the two-year yield jumped to 4.85%.
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U.S. and China extend the Busan trade truce to Jan. 10, moving the tariff deadline past the holidays
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the truce due to lapse on Nov. 10 will now run to Jan. 10. The two extra months carry the deal past the first full-year test of China's soybean pledge and past peak holiday shipping.
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White House drafts a 90-day diesel export ban; refiner stocks fall, then recover most of the drop by the close
Politico reported a 90-day ban is being prepared, while the energy secretary talks of caps instead. Ninety days of exports at the recent pace is about 140 million barrels, more than all the diesel in U.S. storage.
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OECD lifts U.S. growth to 2.2% on AI spending, but sees 2027 inflation at 2.6%, above the Fed's own forecast
The OECD nudged global growth up to 2.9% for 2026. The bigger change was on prices: it raised its 2027 G20 inflation forecast by half a point, and its U.S. inflation path runs hotter than the Fed's.
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71% of workers now get paid leave, BLS says, but only 32% of part-timers and 45% in service jobs
Paid leave access in the private sector rose to 69% from 63% in 2017-18. The averages hide the gap that matters to restaurant and trade owners competing for hourly staff.
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Bessent says the U.S. is open to extending the China trade truce that ends Nov. 10, or a bigger deal
The Treasury Secretary met Vice Premier He Lifeng a day before Xi Jinping's White House summit. Here is where the truce's three headline promises stand on soybeans, Boeing jets and rare earths.
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Wright says a diesel export ban "definitely doesn't work"; exports already fell 18% to 1.33 million barrels a day
Chris Wright broke with President Trump on an export ban and pointed to a voluntary deal with refiners instead. EIA data out the same morning shows exports already dropped 18% last week, and what a ban would do to storage within two weeks.
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Crude stocks rise 3 million barrels as exports drop 1.55 million a day; distillate cover falls to 27 days
The EIA's weekly report shows a crude build driven mostly by a sharp drop in exports rather than a glut. Distillate stocks slipped again as diesel demand jumped, as Washington weighs a diesel export ban.
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What the fastest rise in business costs in four years means for a coffee shop, an HVAC firm and an auto shop
S&P Global's flash survey says U.S. business is booming, but input costs rose at the steepest rate since October 2022 and service firms are passing on less than they absorb. Here is the arithmetic for three kinds of shop.
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Iran hands Witkoff three conditions to reopen Hormuz; diesel futures are down 11% in a week, pump prices are not
Tehran wants the naval blockade lifted, frozen assets released and an end to fighting on every front. Wholesale diesel has already priced in a lot of hope, while the pump price hit another record.
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Texas halts data center permits until a grid audit is done, with no end date, as three data center IPOs stall
Gov. Greg Abbott told state agencies to stop approving data center projects until ERCOT finishes its audit. The first check-in is October 19. Texas has more than 22,000 independent trade contractors on our count.
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Trump backs a diesel export ban and says a decision is coming fast; Valero falls 4.1%
Treasury Secretary Bessent says the administration is studying a full or partial ban. Refining stocks, which make money on the gap between diesel at about $207 a barrel and crude near $93, sold off.
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New York Fed has bought no Treasury bills for reserves since mid-August, Perli says, and money markets are calm
The Fed's markets chief says reserves are still plentiful after $400 billion of bill issuance barely moved repo rates. The next test is October, when the Treasury is expected to sell another large round of bills.
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Atlanta Fed: 70% of firms getting tariff refunds plan to keep some as cash; refunds average 1.7% of revenue
A survey of more than 1,100 executives finds only about a quarter think they qualify, and fewer than half of those have been paid. Public companies are more than twice as likely to have their money.
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Home prices rose 3.7% in a year, the fastest pace in 12 months, in the strongest buyer's market on record
Redfin's August index shows prices still climbing even with 58% more sellers than buyers. Add higher mortgage rates and the same house costs about $224 a month more than a year ago.
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BofA sees Brent above $150 if Iran disruptions last; the U.S. emergency oil reserve is down 30% in a year
Oil hovered near $100 as Trump said an Iran deal would come after the midterms and Bessent said a diesel export ban is under review. Federal data shows where the cushion has gone.
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2-year Treasury auction clears at 4.787%, highest since May 2024, as Barkin says firms can raise prices again
Tuesday's $69 billion sale cost the government 58 basis points more than the same auction a month ago. Foreign and fund buyers took a smaller share, and a Fed president explained why the market is pricing more hikes.
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Goolsbee says the Fed can no longer look through oil and tariff inflation, with the peak pushed to 2027
The Chicago Fed president's line about AI data centers made the headlines. The bigger point of his speech is that supply shocks alone may now justify higher rates.
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GOP split over a diesel export ban: the U.S. is shipping 1.6 million barrels a day, nearly double a year ago
Republican farm-state lawmakers want Washington to stop diesel leaving the country. EIA data shows why the idea has traction, and one House bill's own price trigger would have kept exports shut since March.
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Fed's Jefferson and Williams defend the Fed's cash backstops as Warsh reviews the balance sheet
Neither official said anything about the path of interest rates on Tuesday. Both argued for keeping the liquidity tools that Chair Kevin Warsh has criticized, a week before a quarter-end that tends to test them.
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Oil falls a fifth day and Brent slips under $100 as Saudi pipeline restarts, but diesel sets another record at $6.53
Saudi Arabia is testing and restarting its East-West pipeline after a September 10 drone strike. Crude is falling faster than diesel, and the government's own price breakdown explains why truckers will wait longest for relief.
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Social Security's 2027 raise is tracking 3.4% to 3.6%, and one September inflation number decides it
After August's CPI-W came in 3.5% above a year ago, forecasters put next year's cost-of-living adjustment in the mid-3% range. Our math on the BLS data shows exactly what September has to do for each outcome.
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Diesel hits a record $6.51 a gallon, up 93 cents in a month, as crude slips 3%
AAA's national diesel average set another all-time high Monday even as oil fell. Fuel is now $2.82 a gallon dearer than a year ago, a cost that runs through trucking, farming and delivery bills.
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Fed's Kashkari says inflation is too high in 'all aspects' of the economy, not just oil
The Minneapolis Fed president told Fox News on Sunday that price pressure runs well beyond energy, days after backing the Fed's quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4%. Here is what it signals about the rate path.
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Fed raises rates to 3.75%-4% and signals one more hike this year
The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter point in a unanimous vote, said inflation "remains elevated," and penciled in another increase before the end of 2026.
