What steel, copper and wire prices up 9% to 21% this year actually mean for an electrician, an HVAC shop and a sign maker
Factory buyers told ISM on Thursday that prices jumped again in September, led by steel and aluminum. Government data show what that already did to the materials on a contractor's quote: wire and cable up 9.6% since January, steel mill products up 20.9%.
The Institute for Supply Management's September survey, out Thursday morning, showed factories paying more almost across the board. Its Prices Index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9%, back to where it stood at the start of the Iran war, and 16 of 18 industries reported higher costs, according to the ISM report. ISM chair Susan Spence put steel and aluminum first on the list of causes, "increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain," followed by tariffs and petroleum-based products. Steel, copper and electrical components were all listed as in short supply.
A purchasing index tells you direction, not dollars. For a contractor holding fixed-price bids, the dollars are what matter. Those are in the Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes for the actual metals, which run through August.
The number behind the number
| BLS producer price index | Since January | Since August 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Steel mill products | +20.9% | +23.4% |
| Aluminum mill shapes | +12.8% | +27.3% |
| Nonferrous wire and cable | +9.6% | +19.6% |
| Copper and brass mill shapes | +8.8% | +20.9% |
| Hot-rolled bars, plates and structural shapes | +8.7% | +13.4% |
| Electrical machinery and equipment | +8.1% | +13.5% |
The "since January" column is the one that hurts. It is roughly the gap between a job priced last winter and the materials being bought for it now. August figures are preliminary, and September's ISM reading says the pressure has not let up.
The electrician on a fixed-price fit-out
Take an electrical contractor who bid a $60,000 commercial tenant fit-out in January, with $10,000 of wire and cable and $14,000 of panels, breakers and gear. At August prices, the wire costs about $10,955 and the gear about $15,129. That is $2,084 more in materials on the same job. If the bid carried a 12% margin, or $7,200, about 29% of the profit is gone before anyone pulls a wire.
25,380 independent electricians are listed on CheckThisBiz, a directory of 7,704,724 independent US businesses, including 2,269 in CA, 1,999 in TX, 1,770 in FL. Chains and franchises are excluded from that count, so these are the owner-operated businesses that actually apply for funding.
The HVAC shop and its copper
For an HVAC installer, copper line sets, fittings and tubing are the exposed line. Copper and brass mill shapes are up 8.8% since January. A shop that budgets $4,000 of copper on a commercial rooftop changeout now pays about $4,353, or $353 more per job. Over a 25-job fall and winter season that is about $8,800 that has to be passed on or absorbed. Sheet steel for ductwork falls under the broader steel mill products index, which rose more than twice as fast.
40,729 independent hvac are listed on CheckThisBiz, a directory of 7,704,724 independent US businesses, including 4,171 in TX, 3,613 in FL, 3,273 in CA. Chains and franchises are excluded from that count, so these are the owner-operated businesses that actually apply for funding.
The fabricator: why the headline steel number overstates it
The 20.9% jump in steel mill products is the figure most people will quote, and for a structural shop it is the wrong one. The index for hot-rolled bars, plates and structural shapes, which is what a fabricator or ironworker actually buys, rose 8.7% since January. On a $50,000 steel package bid in January that is about $4,326 more, not the $10,400 the broader index would suggest. The sharper rise sits in sheet and coil, which matters more to metal roofers, HVAC duct shops and anyone bending sheet.
The sign shop: aluminum has already backed off
Aluminum mill shapes are up 27.3% on the year, but the index peaked in June and fell 5.9% through August. A $3,000 aluminum order at January prices would cost about $3,385 at August levels, about $213 less than at the June peak. ISM's buyers still listed aluminum as rising for the 34th straight month in September, so the dip may not hold, but a sign maker or trailer builder does not need to panic-buy at today's prices.
What to actually do
- Shorten how long a quote is good for. A 60- or 90-day price hold made sense when metals were flat. With wire and steel moving several percent a quarter, 15 to 30 days on the materials portion protects the margin.
- Add an escalation clause tied to a published index. The BLS series in the table above are public, updated monthly, and are the kind of benchmark both sides of a contract can check. Agree a threshold, say 5%, before either side adjusts.
- Buy at signing on fixed-price work. For jobs already signed, the cheapest material is the material bought now, as long as there is somewhere to store it and the cash to carry it. If carrying inventory is what squeezes the account, funding for contractors covers how that is usually structured.
- On time-and-materials work, just update the price list. Nothing else needs to change there.
- Sign shops on aluminum: do nothing yet. The latest government data show prices easing, not rising.
Related: our full write-up of the September ISM report and what the fastest business cost jump in four years meant for an HVAC shop.
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, September 2026 Manufacturing PMI Report; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes for steel mill products, hot-rolled steel, aluminum and copper mill shapes, wire and cable, and electrical equipment (August 2026 preliminary); business counts from CheckThisBiz. Job sizes are illustrative, and the cost arithmetic is ours. This is general information, not financial advice.
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