What the dollar's September climb actually means for a wine shop, a border-town store and a supplier selling to Canada
The euro fixed at $1.1298 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2025, and the dollar bought 6.9% more Mexican pesos than on Sept. 1. That cuts some import bills, shrinks cross-border shoppers' budgets and makes U.S. goods dearer in Canada. Against the Chinese yuan, the dollar is weaker than in January.
The dollar spent September getting stronger against the currencies of America's closest trading partners. The European Central Bank's reference rate put the euro at $1.1298 on Thursday, down from $1.159 on Sept. 1 and the weakest fixing since May 2025. The move came as U.S. borrowing costs kept climbing: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29% on Wednesday, according to Treasury data, near its highest since 2002, with markets weighing another Fed hike.
Currency stories usually get written for traders. For a business owner the question is simpler: which currency is on my invoices, and which currency are my customers holding?
The number behind the number
"The dollar is up" hides very different moves. Using the ECB's daily rates to work out the dollar's value against each currency:
| One U.S. dollar buys | Jan. 2 | Sept. 1 | Oct. 1 | Dollar since Sept. 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euros (euro priced in dollars) | $1.1721 | $1.1590 | $1.1298 | Euro 2.5% cheaper |
| Mexican pesos | 17.94 | 17.00 | 18.17 | +6.9% |
| Canadian dollars | 1.373 | 1.389 | 1.425 | +2.6% |
| Chinese yuan | 6.994 | 6.722 | 6.705 | -0.3% |
The yuan line is the one most people miss. Against China's currency the dollar is slightly weaker than at the start of September and 4.1% weaker than on Jan. 2. The strong-dollar headline does nothing for a store sourcing from China.
The wine shop buying from Europe: a real, modest saving
Take a wine and spirits shop placing a €40,000 holiday order with European suppliers who invoice in euros. At the Sept. 1 rate that bill was $46,360. At Thursday's rate it is $45,192, or $1,168 less. Against the January rate the saving is $1,692. That is a few points of margin on the order, not a windfall, and only if the invoice is in euros. If an importer or distributor bills you in dollars, the saving goes to them first, and whether it reaches your price list depends on your next negotiation.
31,725 independent liquor stores are listed on CheckThisBiz, a directory of 7,704,724 independent US businesses, including 3,773 in CA, 3,099 in NY, 2,233 in TX. Chains and franchises are excluded from that count, so these are the owner-operated businesses that actually apply for funding.
The border-town store: shoppers arrive with less
Retailers in El Paso, Laredo and McAllen depend on shoppers who earn pesos. A customer who changed 10,000 pesos on Sept. 1 got about $588. The same 10,000 pesos now buys about $550, or $38 less, a 6.4% cut in spending power in one month. For a clothing store, a jewelry shop or an auto parts store near a crossing, that shows up as smaller baskets rather than fewer visits. CheckThisBiz lists 14,998 independent businesses in El Paso and 5,905 in Laredo, including 398 freight and cargo services in Laredo alone, the businesses most tied to cross-border trade.
The supplier selling to Canada: a 2.6% price rise you did not choose
A U.S. machine shop or specialty food maker that invoices a Canadian customer in U.S. dollars just got 2.6% more expensive in that customer's eyes. A $10,000 order cost C$13,888 on Sept. 1 and costs C$14,246 now. That lands on top of tariffs: one electrical equipment maker told ISM in its September survey that "new tariffs against Canada have drastically increased costs," and a transportation equipment maker described the trade war with Canada as one "which every day is getting worse." For a small exporter, the combination is the risk of a customer quietly switching to a domestic Canadian supplier.
What to actually do
- Check the currency on every supplier invoice. Euro-billed goods are cheaper today. Dollar-billed imports have not changed in price, and that is the place to ask your distributor whether the savings will reach you.
- Border retailers: plan holiday stock on a weaker peso. If you post a peso exchange rate at the register, update it daily. A rate set in early September now gives away about 6%.
- Exporters: call your Canadian accounts before they call you. A price held in Canadian dollars for one season, or split shipping costs, may keep an account that a 2.6% currency move plus tariffs would otherwise push away.
- Importers from China: do nothing. The strong dollar is not showing up against the yuan, so there is no saving to chase.
- Do not plan around the rate holding. Currencies move in both directions. Treat this as a reason to price the next order, not a forecast.
Related: what a likely October Fed hike means for a holiday retailer, and Fed official Kashkari's view on where rates sit.
Sources: European Central Bank euro reference exchange rates (dollar cross rates for the peso, Canadian dollar and yuan calculated from them); U.S. Treasury daily yield curve rates; Institute for Supply Management, September 2026 Manufacturing PMI Report; business and city counts from CheckThisBiz. Order sizes are illustrative, and the currency arithmetic is ours. This is general information, not financial advice.
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