What the oil slide actually means for a trucker, a moving company and a landscaper: diesel is still $6.29

Oil fell hard on Wednesday as the market read the Democratic midterm sweep as a step toward ending the Iran war. CNBC's live blog had Brent down more than 4% at $98.98 a barrel in the morning, and we covered the move in our oil story. If you run trucks, the question is when that shows up in your fuel bill. The honest answer from the data is: not yet, and for diesel, not much.

The number behind the number

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly retail survey is the price people actually pay. Its latest reading is for Nov. 2, which is before Wednesday's drop:

Week	Diesel (on-highway)	Gasoline (all grades)
Sept. 28	$6.382	$4.603
Oct. 12	$6.179	$4.471
Oct. 26	$6.352	$4.405
Nov. 2	$6.292	$4.290

Over five weeks, gasoline is down 31.3 cents, or 6.8%. Diesel is down 9 cents, or 1.4%, and it was actually higher on Oct. 26 than on Oct. 19 ($6.276). Meanwhile, heating oil futures, the wholesale contract diesel prices follow most closely, closed at $4.22 a gallon on Nov. 4, 19.8% below their Sept. 15 peak on our chart. The $2.07 gap between that and the pump is taxes plus distribution and retail margins, and retail prices adjust to wholesale with a delay. The pump has not caught up with the futures market.

Who it hits, and by how much

An owner-operator or small trucking fleet. Take a five-truck carrier burning 9,000 gallons of diesel a month. At $6.292 that is $56,628. If the pump price falls a further 25 cents, the bill drops $2,250 a month, or $27,000 a year. That is an example volume, not a forecast of the price. For carriers on fuel surcharges, the more important question is whether your contract is indexed to the EIA weekly average. If it is, the surcharge shrinks automatically as diesel falls, and your margin on the load does not change. If your surcharge is a flat schedule you set months ago, you are keeping the cushion for now.

24,679 independent trucking and freight are listed on CheckThisBiz, a directory of 7,704,724 independent US businesses, including 2,868 in TX, 2,828 in CA, 1,916 in FL. Chains and franchises are excluded from that count, so these are the owner-operated businesses that actually apply for funding.

See our trucking playbook.

A moving company with box trucks. Most run on diesel, so they are exposed to the sluggish part of this move. With three trucks using 1,500 gallons a month, the bill is $9,438 at $6.292. A 25-cent drop saves $375 a month. Moves are usually quoted by the hour or the job weeks ahead, so a quote written at the September peak ($6.382) is already a little rich, but a customer who sees crude headlines will start asking for the discount before you see it at the pump.

A landscaper running gasoline trucks and mowers. This is the group that has already seen relief. At 900 gallons a month, the 31.3-cent fall since Sept. 28 is worth $281.70 a month ($4,142.70 down to $3,861.00).

44,163 independent landscaping and lawn care are listed on CheckThisBiz, a directory of 7,704,724 independent US businesses, including 3,188 in FL, 3,052 in CA, 2,759 in TX. Chains and franchises are excluded from that count, so these are the owner-operated businesses that actually apply for funding.

Fall cleanup and snow work are quoted by the season, so there is little reason to give that back in discounts.

What to do

Mostly, nothing drastic yet. Three small moves are worth making this week:

• Check how your fuel surcharge is built. Index it to the EIA weekly diesel price if it is not already, so a falling market lowers it on a schedule rather than in an argument.
• Do not lock in a fixed fuel price on today's pump price. Wholesale has fallen much faster than retail, and a locked contract at $6.29 may look expensive within weeks. Equally, do not assume the fall continues.
• Keep your quotes tied to a date. If a customer asks for the oil-price discount, point to the EIA series: diesel is down 1.4%, not 20%.

The risk runs both ways

Wednesday's drop rests on a political read: that a Democratic Congress will push to end the war. As we noted in our oil story, a binding vote is a possibility, not a scheduled event, and the sources we read did not address a presidential veto. Crude can reverse as quickly as it fell. The next EIA reading, for Nov. 9, will show how much of Wednesday's drop has reached the pump.

More: crude oil chart, Main Street.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration; CNBC; Yahoo Finance (heating oil futures, Nov. 4). Industry counts from CheckThisBiz. Monthly fuel costs and savings use example volumes and are our calculations. This is market information, not investment advice.