Social Security's 2027 raise is tracking 3.4% to 3.6%, and one September inflation number decides it

Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is on track to land between 3.4% and 3.6%, up from 2.8% this year, according to estimates from AARP, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and the Senior Citizens League that Fox Business reported on Monday. Two of the three months that set the raise are now in. The last one, September's inflation report, is due October 14, according to Fox Business.

How the raise is set

By law, the COLA is the percentage change in the average of the July, August and September readings of CPI-W, the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, compared with the same three months a year earlier, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.

We pulled the index straight from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-W (not seasonally adjusted) stood at 327.104 in July and 328.481 in August. A year earlier the three months were 316.349, 317.306 and 318.139, an average of 317.265. That puts July at 3.4% above a year ago and August at 3.5%, a little hotter than the headline CPI, which was up 3.4% in August.

The number behind the forecasts: what September has to do

With July and August fixed, the only unknown is September. Working from the BLS figures, here is what the September CPI-W reading would need to be, compared with August's 328.481, for each outcome:

Two reference points help. If September's index simply matches August's, the raise rounds to 3.4%. Last year the index rose about 0.26% from August to September; a repeat of that would land at 3.5%, which is the Senior Citizens League's estimate. Getting to AARP's 3.6% needs a noticeably hotter month. Energy is the usual swing factor in a single month, and fuel prices have been moving hard, as our reporting on record diesel and falling crude shows.

What the range means in dollars

The Senior Citizens League told Fox Business that a 3.5% COLA would lift the average monthly benefit by $67.90, from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98. Applying the same average to the other forecasts:

• 3.4%: about $65.96 a month more
• 3.5%: $67.90 a month more
• 3.6%: about $69.84 a month more

The easy read is that the forecasters disagree. In practice the whole spread is under $4 a month on an average check. The bigger fact is that the raise will be roughly 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points larger than 2026's 2.8%, because inflation has picked up.

Who it actually hits

For retirees, the COLA is not a gain in buying power; it is a catch-up for prices that have already risen. As the Senior Citizens League pointed out to Fox Business, CPI-W reflects the spending of urban wage earners, and older Americans divide their budgets differently.

For businesses that depend on older customers, from pharmacies to diners and home-service contractors in retirement-heavy towns, a mid-3% raise means monthly budgets that grow in line with prices rather than ahead of them. It supports steady spending, not a new wave of it.

For traders, the September CPI release matters twice: once for the Fed, which raised rates last week (our coverage), and once for the final COLA figure, which the Social Security Administration announces after that report.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-W (series CWUR0000SA0) and CPI-U (CUUR0000SA0), not seasonally adjusted, retrieved September 21, 2026; Fox Business, reporting estimates from AARP, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and the Senior Citizens League. Thresholds and dollar figures for 3.4% and 3.6% are our calculations. This is economic information, not financial advice.