Adobe sees record $275.1 billion holiday season online, but October alone is forecast at $95.8 billion

Adobe expects U.S. shoppers to spend a record $275.1 billion online from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, up 6.7% from last year, according to a forecast released Monday and based on Adobe Analytics data from U.S. retail sites. Reuters also reported the 6.7% growth figure. Cyber Monday, Nov. 30, is forecast to be the biggest single day at $15.1 billion, with Black Friday second at $12.9 billion.

The number behind the headline: October

The $275.1 billion covers November and December only. Tucked further down the release is Adobe's October forecast: $95.8 billion spent online, up 8%, with $9.9 billion of that during the Oct. 6-7 Prime Day event. That one month is equal to about 35% of the entire two-month holiday forecast (our calculation), and it is growing faster than the season itself.

For a small online seller, that changes the calendar. If your holiday plan starts with a Black Friday email, a third of the spending you are planning around has, in effect, already happened in a month many owners treat as quiet. Adobe says discounts during the Prime Day event are set to peak at 19% off list.

Discounts are not getting deeper

The growth is not being bought with bigger markdowns. Adobe's category forecasts put this year's peak discounts roughly level with 2025:

That matters to a small retailer deciding how hard to discount. The big platforms are not planning to go deeper, so matching last year's promotion depth keeps you level with the market rather than behind it.

Where the growth is

The fastest-growing large category is grocery, forecast at $26.1 billion, up 10.3%, ahead of electronics (up 5.9%) and apparel (up 4.7%). Toys (up 9.6%) and cosmetics (up 9.5%) also outpace the total. Adobe expects shoppers to use deals to stock up on basics: during Cyber Week, it forecasts online sales of clothing basics up 210% and personal hygiene products up 150% compared with average September levels.

112,779 independent retail stores are listed on CheckThisBiz, a directory of 7,704,724 independent US businesses, including 14,307 in CA, 9,799 in TX, 9,064 in NY. Chains and franchises are excluded from that count, so these are the owner-operated businesses that actually apply for funding.

Those independents mostly compete on a different field from the one Adobe measures, but three details in the release apply directly to them:

• Phones: 57.4% of season spending is forecast to come through mobile devices, and 63% on Thanksgiving. A checkout that is slow on a phone is losing most of the traffic.
• Pay-later plans (BNPL): forecast at $21.3 billion, or about 7.7% of season spending (our calculation), with $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday alone. Adobe says 82% of BNPL spending comes through mobile.
• Where customers come from: Adobe expects social media's share of revenue to rise 17% and affiliates, including influencers, 12%, against 4% for paid search. It also forecasts traffic to retail sites from AI chat and browser tools up 130% year over year.

What to keep in mind

This is a forecast, and Adobe's own disclaimer says results could differ. Last season Adobe measured a record $257.8 billion online, per its January release. The forecast is also in nominal dollars, so part of any growth reflects prices rather than more goods sold. Adobe's next check-in will come from its actual October data, which will show whether the early-season shift is as big as it expects.

Sources: Adobe via Business Wire; full release on Yahoo Finance; Reuters. Shares of spending are our calculations from Adobe's figures. Business counts from CheckThisBiz. This is market information, not investment advice.