Congo's Ebola outbreak passes 10,000 confirmed cases, with 4,887 deaths

The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has passed 10,000 confirmed cases. Government data put the total at 10,060 confirmed cases and 4,887 deaths, as of Oct. 26 with data through Oct. 25, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Al Jazeera attributes the same numbers to the DRC health ministry.

WHO's number is older

WHO's latest Disease Outbreak News, published Oct. 23, reports 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths as of Oct. 20 (a crude fatality rate of 48.3%), with 2,595 recoveries across 66 health zones in eight provinces. The two sources differ by date, not by disagreement: the gap is 356 cases and 200 deaths over five days of data. We have not seen a WHO tally that includes the 10,060 figure.

Is it under control?

Al Jazeera reports Africa CDC says at least 95% of cases must come from known contacts for an outbreak to count as under control, and that about 80% of recent cases come from outside monitored chains. It also reports that at least half of those who died were never admitted for treatment. No vaccine or treatment is approved for the Bundibugyo strain; Al Jazeera says WHO announced the first vaccine clinical trial on Oct. 23.

Spread beyond Congo

ECDC lists Kenya with 9 confirmed cases and 2 deaths as of Oct. 26, one imported case in Nigeria reported Oct. 20 (the patient was evacuated to Switzerland), and says Uganda's outbreak has ended. WHO counts five affected countries since the May 15 declaration. ECDC also notes four cases evacuated or imported to Europe since May.

Al Jazeera, citing WHO, reports a nurse was killed and a colleague seriously injured by assailants on Oct. 25 in Bafwasende, Tshopo province, a reminder that insecurity is hampering the response.

How it compares

Al Jazeera calls it the fastest-growing and deadliest Ebola outbreak in Congo's history, and says that across all affected countries it is the second-largest and second-deadliest on record, behind the 2014-2016 West African epidemic (about 28,600 infected and more than 11,000 dead). It reports cases in 66 health zones across eight provinces, up from three in the first days. ECDC names the provinces: Ituri, Nord-Kivu, Sud-Kivu, Tshopo, Haut-Uele, Bas-Uele, Sud Ubangi and Nord Ubangi, and says community transmission is ongoing.

The fatality figure needs care. Deaths among confirmed cases are about 48.6% of 10,060 by simple division of the two ECDC numbers, but outcomes for recent cases are not yet known, so that ratio will move as cases resolve. WHO reported 2,595 recoveries as of Oct. 20.

What to watch

The next WHO update and whether the share of cases from known contacts rises. Travel restrictions are the practical business angle: Uganda has imposed a 21-day paid-by-the-traveller quarantine on citizens returning from Congo, per Al Jazeera.

Sources: ECDC, WHO, Al Jazeera. We did not retrieve Africa CDC's own page; its statements are as reported by Al Jazeera. This is public-health information, not medical advice.