Consumer confidence falls 6.7 points to 81.9 as inflation expectations climb to 6.1%

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, from 88.6 in August, the group said on Tuesday. That was well under the 89 economists expected, according to CNBC, which cited the Dow Jones consensus. Both halves of the index weakened: the Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3 and the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its third monthly decline in a row.

The survey ran from September 1 to 23, a window that included the Fed's rate hike and the month's jump in fuel prices. "References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights," Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson said in the release.

The numbers under the headline

Three figures in the full release matter more than the index level itself:

• Inflation expectations: consumers' average 12-month inflation expectation rose 0.3 points to 6.1%, and the median rose to 5.1%.
• Rates: 68.4% of consumers now expect interest rates to be higher a year from now, up 5.2 points in a single month.
• Household finances: more consumers said their family's current finances were "bad" than "good," only the second time that has happened since the question was added four years ago.

The labor picture is thinning but has not flipped. The share saying jobs are "plentiful" minus the share saying they are "hard to get" fell 2.5 points to +1.7%. Net views of current business conditions, however, turned negative at -1.9%, the first negative reading since September 2024. Looking six months out, net expectations for the labor market fell to -14.4%.

The same morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said job openings slipped by 256,000 to 7.08 million in August, below the 7.2 million consensus, per CNBC. We looked at what that means for hiring in a separate piece.

Who it actually hits: where people say they will still spend

The part most coverage skips is the services spending list, because it is the closest thing in the survey to a forward order book for Main Street. Expected spending on services over the next six months fell again. But the top five planned categories were, in order, restaurants, bars and take-out; streaming, internet and mobile service; beauty and personal care; utilities; and healthcare.

The cuts landed on the bigger-ticket discretionary lines. Planned spending on hotels for personal travel, movies, airfare and amusement parks all moderated, the Conference Board said, while consumers leaned toward "cheap thrills and necessities." Vacation plans held at 42.6% of consumers, up 0.5 points, but only because domestic trips rose while foreign travel plans dipped.

For owners, that reads as a trade-down rather than a stop. A household that skips a flight still orders take-out and keeps the haircut appointment, but it is more likely to pick the cheaper option on the menu. CheckThisBiz lists 605,380 independent restaurants and 339,519 independent salons and barbershops, the two consumer trades that sit highest on this month's list. Both depend on frequency more than ticket size, which is why the restaurant and salon playbooks focus on repeat visits and rebooking.

Durable goods are softer. On a six-month average, plans to buy cars and homes both slipped, and refrigerators and TVs saw the largest pullback among big-ticket items. That matters for appliance dealers and auto lots, and it fits with the daily mortgage rate index touching 7.5% this week for the first time since April 2024, as we reported.

What traders are watching

For bond markets, the rise in expected inflation is the uncomfortable number. A public that expects 6.1% inflation and higher rates gives the Fed little room to call its hiking cycle done. Sentiment surveys and actual spending often diverge, so the test is whether the hard data on payrolls and retail sales follows the survey down. Our economic calendar lists the dates.

Sources: The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Survey, September 2026; CNBC; business counts from CheckThisBiz. This is market information, not investment advice.