USDA finds 2.10 billion bushels of old corn, up 35%, and December corn drops about 23 cents to $4.99
The quarterly Grain Stocks report showed corn stocks on September 1 up 544 million bushels from a year ago, with commercial storage up 44%. On a 1,000-acre farm, the day's price drop is worth roughly $42,000 of crop value.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Wednesday that old-crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from a year earlier, in its quarterly Grain Stocks report. Corn futures fell hard after the release. December corn on the Chicago Board of Trade traded near $4.99 a bushel in the afternoon, down about 22.75 cents, or 4.4%, from Tuesday's $5.22 settlement, according to Yahoo Finance quotes.
Wheat and soybeans slipped too. December wheat was down about 16.5 cents near $6.76 and November soybeans down about 7 cents near $12.91 on the same quote board.
The number behind the number
September 1 stocks are the corn left over from last year's crop as the new harvest starts. The report's detail tables show where the extra grain is sitting:
| Corn stocks, Sept. 1 | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| On farms | 643 million bu | 787 million bu | +22% |
| Off farms (elevators, processors) | 908 million bu | 1,308 million bu | +44% |
| Total | 1,551 million bu | 2,095 million bu | +35% |
That is about 544 million more bushels than a year ago, and roughly three-quarters of the increase is in commercial hands rather than on farms. Use did not fall: the USDA put June to August disappearance at 3.20 billion bushels, up from 3.10 billion a year earlier. The bigger carry-in reflects how much grain came into the season, not weak demand. The report's own table puts the 2025 crop at 16.96 billion bushels on a 186.5 bushel-per-acre yield.
The other crops tell a different story. Soybean stocks were 315 million bushels, down 3% from a year ago, and all-wheat stocks were 1.85 billion bushels, down 14%. The selling in those markets on Wednesday followed corn rather than their own numbers.
Who it actually hits
A corn grower pricing this year's crop. At the USDA's 2025 national yield of 186.5 bushels an acre, 1,000 acres is about 186,500 bushels. A 22.75-cent drop in the futures price is roughly $42,400 off the value of that crop in a single session, before basis. Growers who sold ahead or hedged are insulated from it; those who have not are not.
Elevators and storage. Commercial stocks up 44% going into harvest means more old grain occupying space just as new bushels arrive, which is the setup in which elevators tend to widen the local discount to futures. That is a general pattern, not a figure from the report, and local bids vary widely.
Feed buyers and ethanol plants. Cheaper corn cuts input costs for hog, poultry and cattle feeders and for ethanol producers.
Traders. The survey carries a margin of error. The USDA says the corn estimate is within about plus or minus 5% of the value a full count would give, 95% of the time. A 35% year-on-year gap is far outside that band.
What comes next
The next quarterly stocks estimate, for December 1, is due in January, according to the report's revision schedule. Until then, harvest pace and export sales set the tone. Harvest also runs on diesel, which we covered in our report on distillate stocks. More on the markets page.
Sources: USDA NASS, Grain Stocks, released September 30, 2026 (full text); CBOT futures quotes via Yahoo Finance, intraday and subject to change. Crop value arithmetic by The Company Chronicle. This is market information, not investment advice.
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