Next week's jobs report is expected to show payrolls halving to about 85,000, with the 10-year yield at 5.17%

The last full week of September ends with the bond market under strain and the two biggest data releases still ahead. Economists expect the September jobs report on Friday, Oct. 2 to show nonfarm payrolls of about 85,000, roughly half of August's 162,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, CNBC reported. Our calendar feed shows a consensus of 84,000. Before that, Wednesday brings the August personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation measure the Fed targets. Both arrive ahead of the Fed's October meeting.

The number behind this week's yield headlines

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.23% on Friday, its highest since June 2007, and the 30-year traded above 5.51%, CNBC reported. The Treasury's official end-of-day curve shows where the week actually closed, and it shows which part of the curve did the moving:

Over the year, the 2-year has led, pushed up by expectations of Fed hikes. This week was different. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year widened from 25 to 36 basis points in five sessions. A rise led by the long end fits the case some strategists made to CNBC: that strong growth, heavy AI investment and deficits are driving yields, not just the Fed. For borrowers, it means fixed-rate credit priced off 5- and 10-year Treasuries got more expensive this week faster than floating lines tied to the Fed's rate. The effective fed funds rate held at 3.88%.

The week ahead, in order

• Tuesday, Sept. 29: FHFA home prices (July), consumer confidence, and JOLTS job openings for August (consensus 7.24 million, prior 7.271 million). Carnival reports.
• Wednesday, Sept. 30: ADP private payrolls (consensus 72,000, prior 38,000), August PCE prices and personal income, and the Chicago PMI. Micron reports.
• Thursday, Oct. 1: jobless claims (consensus 200,000, prior 197,000), ISM manufacturing (consensus 54.9, prior 54.6) and construction spending. Nike and McCormick report.
• Friday, Oct. 2: September jobs report, then final August durable goods and factory orders.

What traders are watching

A payroll print near 85,000 would be a slowdown, but the reaction depends on wages and the PCE figure two days earlier. Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research told CNBC he expects a gradual slowdown toward 2% real growth, which he sees as eventually good for stocks. Justin Bergner of Gabelli Funds said he sees more downside risk than upside and that higher rates should reset asset prices somewhat lower. September CPI follows on Oct. 14.

For a business owner, the point is timing. If you are fixing a rate on equipment, a building or a term loan, the quote you get next week will move with the 5- and 10-year yields on Wednesday and Friday. Our economic calendar carries every release.

Sources: U.S. Treasury daily yield curve, CNBC, Chronicle calendar and rates data. This is market information, not investment advice.