Natural gas averaged $2.93 this summer, down 6%, while diesel is up 74% from a year ago

The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August, 6% below the same months last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Friday. Prices fell even though July was the warmest July on record for the Lower 48 states, at an average 77°F according to NOAA data cited by the agency, which pushed up air-conditioning demand.

Why gas stayed cheap

• Solar and wind took the load. EIA estimates solar generation rose 19.4 billion kilowatthours and wind 9.3 billion kWh from last summer, against a 7.5 billion kWh rise in gas-fired generation. Renewables covered most of the extra demand.
• Record production. Output ran about 2%, or 2.7 billion cubic feet a day, above last summer. EIA's September outlook expects a record 111.2 Bcf/d of dry gas for 2026, with growth led by the Permian.
• Full storage. Inventories entered April 4% above the five-year average, and EIA forecast in August that they will end October at 3,985 Bcf, 5% above normal. Maintenance at LNG export terminals also held back demand.

The weekly Henry Hub spot price was $2.94 in the week to Sept. 18, according to EIA's price series, so the late-summer level has held. The latest weekly storage build is in our natural gas storage report.

The split everyone is missing

Most of this month's energy coverage has been about fuel, and that picture looks nothing like gas. EIA's weekly U.S. retail diesel price was $6.529 a gallon on Sept. 21, against $3.749 a year earlier. That is a 74% rise, by our arithmetic, while Henry Hub was cheaper than a year ago over the summer. Since early July alone, diesel is up 43% from $4.578.

So "energy costs" is not one number this fall. A business whose main energy bill is natural gas is not seeing what a business that buys diesel is seeing.

Who that hits

Laundromats, bakeries and restaurant kitchens burn natural gas in dryers, ovens and ranges. CheckThisBiz lists 30,325 independent laundromats, 35,649 independent bakeries and 605,380 independent restaurants. For them, the wholesale fuel behind the gas bill got cheaper this summer. The catch is that Henry Hub is only the commodity part of a commercial gas bill. Utility delivery charges and local rates make up the rest and do not follow the wholesale price, so a lower Henry Hub does not guarantee a lower bill.

The 24,679 independent trucking companies on CheckThisBiz, and every business that pays freight surcharges, are on the other side of the split. Delivery costs, not the stove, are where this year's energy inflation is landing. Our diesel record report has the pump-price side.

For winter, the EIA's storage cushion is the number to watch: heating demand, not summer cooling, is what usually moves gas prices from here.

Sources: EIA Today in Energy; EIA weekly Henry Hub spot price and retail diesel price series; CheckThisBiz. This is market information, not investment advice.