What heating oil at twice last year's price actually means for a diner, a greenhouse and a landlord who pays the heat

Oil rose again on Monday after President Trump rejected Iran's conditions for a ceasefire. Brent crude traded above $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $94.40 in the morning, CNBC reported, while the Associated Press described the Iranian offer as a proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz. Most coverage goes straight to the gas pump. The bill most owners in the Northeast have not priced yet is the one that starts next month: heating.

Heating oil season runs October through March, according to the Energy Information Administration, and about 82% of the households that heat with oil are in the Northeast. Commercial buildings burn it too. That region holds 1,377,015 of the independent businesses listed on CheckThisBiz, from 465,701 in New York to 21,894 in Vermont.

Where prices stand

Those are EIA's daily spot prices, the latest it has published; the next update is Wednesday. They are wholesale. EIA's survey of what homes and businesses actually pay restarts on October 7. Last season it showed retail heating oil at $3.555 a gallon on Oct. 6, 2025, climbing to $5.566 by March 23, 2026, after the war with Iran began. That October retail price sat $1.413 above the wholesale price a few days earlier. If dealers keep a similar gap, today's wholesale price points to roughly $6.21 a gallon delivered. Treat that as a rough guide, not a quote.

The thing the oil headline gets wrong: your fuel matters more than the barrel

Heating oil is a distillate, the same family of fuel as diesel, and it has moved with diesel's record run. Propane has not: it is up 25% at wholesale, not 114%. Natural gas went the other way on Monday, down 3.35% to about $3.20 on our markets board. Three businesses on the same street can face three very different winters.

The diner heated by oil: about $5,100 more, or $850 a month

Say a diner's building burns 2,000 gallons of heating oil over a season. If only the year-over-year rise in wholesale price reaches the delivery bill, that is 2,000 times $2.557, or $5,114 more than last winter's pricing. Spread over the six months EIA counts as heating season, that is $852 a month. A diner doing 1,500 covers a month would need about 57 cents more per cover to absorb it. That is a menu price decision, and the time to make it is before the first delivery, not after the January bill.

The greenhouse on propane: about $1,700 more

A greenhouse or nursery that heats with propane and uses 10,000 gallons a season faces 10,000 times $0.174, or $1,740 more, if the wholesale increase passes through. That is real money but a fraction of the oil-heated diner's increase on five times the gallons. EIA's retail survey put residential propane at $2.417 in early October 2025, so most of what a propane customer pays is delivery and dealer cost, not the commodity, which is why the oil spike moves it less.

The landlord who pays the heat: $11,500 and no way to pass it on this year

An owner of a small mixed-use building on gross leases, where rent includes heat, burning 4,500 gallons a season, is looking at 4,500 times $2.557, or $11,506.50 more. On a triple-net lease the tenant pays that; on a gross lease the landlord does, and rent usually cannot rise until renewal. That is about $1,918 a month across the six-month season. Check whether your leases carry a fuel or operating-cost escalation clause, and when each one renews.

What to actually do

• Find out your fuel and your contract now. Ask your dealer whether you are on variable pricing, a fixed price or a capped price, and what each would cost for this season.
• Understand what a lock does. A fixed price today locks in wholesale levels more than double last year's. It protects you if the Iran standoff drags on, and costs you if a deal brings oil down. A cap limits the upside. There is no right answer, only whether your budget can take another spike.
• Budget the monthly number. Divide your season's expected gallons by six, multiply by the increase, and set that aside from October.
• If you are on natural gas, do nothing yet. This spike is not your problem this week.

Related: what record diesel means for truckers, landscapers and farms and our crude oil chart.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration; CNBC; Associated Press; Chronicle markets board; business counts from CheckThisBiz. Building fuel volumes are illustrative, and the cost arithmetic is ours. This is general information, not financial advice.