U.S.-China "30-for-30" lists: 77 U.S. tariff lines against 1,619 Chinese ones, with no rates and no start date

Washington and Beijing have published the product lists behind their new "30-for-30" trade framework: roughly $30 billion of Chinese goods the U.S. may import on better terms, and roughly $30 billion of U.S. goods China may do the same for. The White House posted both lists on Sunday alongside a statement from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who said the U.S. side covers "about 30 percent of U.S. exports to China."

Headlines on Monday described it as the two countries cutting tariffs on $60 billion of goods. The documents themselves are more cautious than that, and the difference matters to anyone pricing inventory.

What the documents actually commit to

The terms of reference say the two sides will consider the lists "with a view toward" reduced tariffs, and that "future tariff reductions" will be "determined and implemented" through each country's own legal process. Greer's statement uses the same conditional language: goods that "could benefit from more favorable tariff treatment in the future."

Three things are missing from every page we read:

• No new rate. Neither list says what any tariff will fall to. CNBC noted the two sides currently charge each other effective tariffs of more than 40% (U.S.) and more than 30% (China).
• No date. There is no effective date for either side.
• Old values. The "$30 billion" is measured against calendar-year 2024 trade, not current flows, according to the terms of reference. Adjustments are expected no more than once a year.

The lists are very different shapes

We counted the lines. The U.S. import list runs to 77 tariff lines on four pages. The China import list runs to 1,619 lines on 38 pages. Similar dollar value, but China's side is spread over far more products, while the U.S. side is concentrated in a handful of consumer categories.

The U.S. list is almost entirely household and leisure goods: plastic tableware, bed and table linen, electric blankets, small kitchen appliances, microwave ovens, coffee makers and toasters, Christmas ornaments and Christmas-tree lights, playing cards, billiard equipment, balls for soccer, tennis and baseball, fishing hooks and line, and toys. Eight lines are narrowed by product description, including high chairs, child safety seats and play yards, and toys are covered only if they do not connect by Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Ethernet or radio frequency.

On China's list, 1,227 of the 1,619 lines fall in the tariff schedule's first 24 chapters, which cover live animals, meat, fish, produce, grains, oilseeds and food products. The single largest chapter is wood and wood articles, with 146 lines, and there are 43 lines of medical and scientific instruments. Beef, pork, whole chickens and turkeys, corn, wheat and sorghum are all there.

The thing the headline misses: soybeans

Soybean purchases have been one of the tests of the trade truce, but ordinary soybeans are not on China's list. The only soybean line is 1201.10, soybeans for sowing, meaning seed. Commercial soybeans sit under a separate subheading that does not appear. That fits Greer's statement, which treats "agricultural and energy purchases" as a compliance question alongside this framework rather than part of it, but a soybean grower reading "tariff cuts on U.S. farm goods" should not assume it applies to the crop in the bin.

Who it hits

• Toy, gift and holiday retailers. Most of the U.S. list lands in their categories. CNBC quoted WPIC chief executive Jacob Cooke saying a cut before the holidays "could provide a welcome boost." The documents give no reason to count on that timing. Christmas orders placed now are priced at today's tariff.
• Sporting goods and fishing tackle shops. Balls, rackets, tennis gear, hooks and line are listed, which is unusually specific.
• Livestock, poultry, grain and lumber exporters. They have the most lines on China's side, and the most to gain if Beijing sets real rates.

112,779 independent retail stores are listed on CheckThisBiz, a directory of 7,704,724 independent US businesses, including 14,307 in CA, 9,799 in TX, 9,064 in NY. Chains and franchises are excluded from that count, so these are the owner-operated businesses that actually apply for funding.

For an importer, the useful step today is mechanical: check your 8-digit HTS codes against the U.S. list, and read the "Ex-Out" column if your product is a toy or a child product. Repricing should wait for an actual rate and date. Background: our earlier story on Greer's first description of the deal and the truce extension to Jan. 10.

Sources: USTR, White House release and product lists, CNBC. Line counts are our own tally of the published lists. This is market information, not investment advice.