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Tuesday, September 29, 2026
The Company Chronicle

Real Estate

FHFA home prices rose 0.3% in July and 2.6% in a year; Middle Atlantic up 6.3%, Mountain up 0.6%

The national gain hides a tenfold spread between regions. On a median-priced home, the jump in mortgage rates since last fall costs a buyer about three times as much each month as the rise in the price itself.

U.S. single-family home prices rose 0.3% in July from June and were 2.6% higher than in July 2025, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Tuesday in its monthly House Price Index release. The agency left its June reading unrevised at 0.0%, so the July gain follows a flat month rather than a weak one.

The index tracks repeat sales of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and it is seasonally adjusted. Its annual pace has been climbing all year: FHFA's release headlines put it at 1.6% for January, 1.7% for February, 2.0% for April, 2.2% for May and now 2.6% for July, according to the agency's news release archive.

Nine regions, nine different markets

The national number averages over very different conditions. FHFA's division-level data file shows the spread:

Census divisionJuly vs JuneJuly vs a year ago
Middle Atlantic+1.5%+6.3%
East North Central+0.1%+4.5%
New England+0.3%+4.1%
West North Central+0.4%+2.9%
East South Central-0.5%+2.4%
South Atlantic+0.1%+1.8%
West South Central+0.4%+1.1%
Pacific+0.6%+0.7%
Mountain-0.8%+0.6%
United States+0.3%+2.6%

The pattern is the Northeast and the industrial Midwest pulling the average up, while the Sun Belt and the West barely move. The Middle Atlantic division, which covers New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, gained more in July alone than the Pacific and Mountain divisions did over the whole year. The Mountain division's index fell to 603.5 in July from 608.4 in June, giving back most of what it gained from April to June.

The national June figure held, but several regions were redrawn. FHFA now shows the West North Central down 0.3% in June, where it had first reported a 0.6% drop, and New England down 0.7% rather than 0.8%. Small changes, but they are the kind that can flip a region's trend line from one month to the next.

What it means in money

Redfin puts the national median sale price at $398,596 for August. Applying FHFA's 2.6% annual gain to a home at that price, it was worth about $388,500 a year earlier, a gain of roughly $10,100 for the owner. In the Middle Atlantic, the same 6.3% pace on a home at that price is worth about $25,100 over a year; in the Mountain states, 0.6% is about $2,400.

For a buyer, the price gain is the smaller half of the story. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.03% on September 24, up from 6.30% a year earlier and from 6.65% as recently as August 20. With 20% down, the monthly principal and interest on a $398,596 home at 7.03% comes to about $2,128. The same buyer a year ago, paying about $388,500 at 6.30%, would have owed about $1,924. Of that roughly $204 monthly difference, about $50 comes from the higher price and about $154 from the higher rate.

That is the part the headline misses. A 2.6% price rise is modest, and in much of the West it is close to flat, but the jump in rates since August alone adds about $81 a month on that same loan. Anyone budgeting for a purchase this fall has more riding on where rates settle than on what the seller asks. Rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, which is on our 10-year chart; we covered the recent climb in our report on the 7.5% daily rate, and Redfin's August price data in our Redfin story.

30-year mortgage rate, 12M. Chart by TradingView.

What comes next

FHFA said its next report, due October 27, will carry data through August. The July S&P Cotality Case-Shiller figures could not be retrieved from a primary source when we checked this morning, so they are not included here.

Sources: FHFA news release; FHFA monthly HPI data, seasonally adjusted; Freddie Mac PMMS; Redfin. Payment figures are our calculations, 30-year fixed, 20% down, principal and interest only. This is market information, not investment advice.

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