Gas is up 34% and airfare 22% in a year, while eggs fell 21%: where inflation is and isn't

Overall inflation was 3.7% over the 12 months ending in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Almost nothing in a household budget moved by that amount. Gasoline rose 34.2% and airline fares 22.4%. Eggs fell 20.6%, car insurance 5.0% and prescription drugs 4.5%.

Our chart of every category is on the inflation page. It uses BLS CPI-U series, not seasonally adjusted, 12-month change.

The spread

Why the top movers moved

Gasoline. The BLS release says the energy index rose 20.4% over the year "due in large part" to gasoline, and that gasoline's 9.1% jump in September alone accounted for over half of the month's overall increase. The release does not say why pump prices rose, and we have not confirmed a crude oil price for this story, so we do not attribute the move to a specific level of oil.

Airfare. BLS reports airline fares up 22.4% on the year and 1.2% in September. The clearest primary evidence on cost is Delta's own filing: its adjusted fuel price was $3.61 a gallon in the September quarter, up 60% from a year earlier, and its fuel expense of $4.1 billion was up 62%. Delta also said revenue grew about 16% on flat capacity, on "broad demand strength and healthy yield growth," in its Form 8-K. So one large carrier shows both higher fuel costs and higher revenue per seat. That is consistent with fares rising, but it is one airline, not proof of what drives the national index.

Eggs. The USDA's September Food Price Outlook says retail egg prices in August were 23.0% below a year earlier and forecasts a 29.4% drop for 2026. It cites recovering supply: avian influenza, which since 2022 cut laying flocks, has had fewer new detections, USDA projects higher 2026 egg production, and replacement pullets have been sufficient.

For car insurance and prescription drugs, the BLS release gives the declines but no explanation, and we found none from a primary source. We report them as measured.

Who this hits

The national average is a poor guide to any one business. A delivery or service firm whose fleet burns gasoline is facing a cost line that rose nearly ten times faster than overall inflation. A café owner faces coffee up 7.1% and eggs down 20.6% at once. A company that sends staff by air has seen fares rise about six times faster than the overall index. A landlord or tenant on a CPI-linked lease is exposed to the 3.7% headline, not to any of these. Compare your own invoices to the table instead of the headline.

Some context from the same release: core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 2.6%, and shelter was up 3.2%. Our report on the release day covers the market reaction.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, September 2026 release of Oct. 14, 2026; USDA Economic Research Service; Delta Air Lines filings on SEC EDGAR. This is market information, not investment advice.