Goldman slashes its year-end gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650, saying the Fed hike has changed the trade

Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650 and its end-2027 forecast to $4,800 from $5,400, Investing.com reported on Friday. Reuters, in a report carried by Kitco, confirms the revised year-end number and says the cut came on Thursday. The bank's reason is the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance.

What Goldman says changed

According to Investing.com's account, the strategists' base case now assumes a December rate hike, which they think keeps investors' "debasement" worries contained. They also expect demand for gold as a hedge, measured by call-option buying, to fall back toward its historical average instead of staying at its 2026 levels. And they say the setup increasingly resembles 2022, when central bank buying supported gold but higher rates weighed on investors.

Goldman did not turn bearish on the structural story. It still expects central banks to buy 60 tonnes a month through 2026 and 2027, against a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes, and estimates current purchases at 85 tonnes a month. It sees Fed cuts starting in the second half of 2027. In a downside case, a further hike in March 2027, delayed cuts or a higher terminal rate, it puts gold at $4,660 at the end of 2027.

The number behind the number

The cut sounds large, but gold has already done much of the falling. COMEX gold futures traded near $4,042 this morning, after closing at $4,113.50 on Thursday and $3,898.90 a week ago, the lowest close in a year. We compared those prices with the new forecasts:

The old year-end forecast implied a 15% rise in under two months. The new one implies under 3%. Gold is also up on the week: Reuters put spot gold up about 5% week to date at $4,070.59 as of 1124 GMT, on track for its best week in more than two months. In other words, the market rallied into a forecast cut, and the forecast simply caught down to where gold is trading.

Why the Fed is the whole story

Reuters cites CME FedWatch at about a 70% chance of a December hike. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.87% this morning against 4.84% on Thursday, and the dollar index moved to about 102.2 from 101.55 on Thursday, according to Yahoo Finance. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields and a firmer dollar are the usual headwinds, and they are the ones Goldman is pointing to. See our earlier reads on the post-midterm rebound and the October 30 low.

Who it actually hits

A single analyst forecast does not set a price,. For a jeweler, dental lab or electronics maker that buys metal as an input, the practical point is the range: Goldman's new base case is roughly today's price, not a further 15% climb. Anyone budgeting metal costs for the next two months on the old forecast was assuming a rise that its author no longer expects. On $10,000 of gold bought a month, the gap between the old and new year-end numbers is the difference between paying about $11,500 and about $10,270 at those prices, a swing of roughly $1,230 a month, though the actual price may land anywhere.

Next up for gold traders is the Fed's December meeting, where the hike odds will be tested. Live charts: gold, our markets board.

Sources: Investing.com, Kitco/Reuters, Yahoo Finance price history (read Nov. 6, 2026; today's figures are intraday and will change). This is market information, not investment advice.