The Nightcap: Iran gap risk for Sunday's reopen, after oil's 13% weekly drop
US futures are shut until 6 PM ET Sunday. December WTI fell 12.8% in a week on hopes the midterms would end the Iran war, and analysts told CNBC the Gulf is heading the other way.
Nothing is trading live tonight. CME equity and gold futures stopped at 5:00 PM ET Friday, and every figure below is a final Friday print, not a live quote. The biggest question for Sunday's 6 PM ET reopen is whether oil's peace discount holds. Crude fell sharply this week on hopes that Democratic midterm wins would force an end to the Iran war, but CNBC reported Saturday that analysts see the U.S. and Iran heading toward renewed fighting.
Where futures finished Friday
| Instrument | Final price (5:00 PM ET) | Vs Thursday's close |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,402.0 | +0.26% |
| Nasdaq-100 futures | 27,085.25 | +1.25% |
| Dow futures | 51,385 | -0.45% |
| Gold futures | $4,074.90 | -0.94% |
| Crude oil futures (WTI) | $90.83 | +0.34% |
Source: Yahoo Finance daily futures data pulled about 9 PM ET Saturday; percent changes are our arithmetic. Yahoo's crude quote is the continuous front contract, and its $90.83 matches the December WTI settle in our oil report. Futures carry a premium to the cash indexes, so compare them with each other, not with index closes.
The oil gap
December WTI closed Friday at $90.83, 12.8% below $104.12 a week earlier, by Yahoo Finance daily closes. CNBC puts the move in crude at more than 16% over five sessions. Both can be right: they measure different contracts and windows, and we quote the active December WTI. Most of our figure came in two sessions, Monday and the day after the election.
CNBC quotes Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets pointing to "the divergence between deepening escalation concerns in the Gulf and the headline-driven off-ramp optimism of market participants thousands of miles away." It also reports that Rapidan Energy puts the odds of resumed fighting at 80%. That is one firm's estimate. Democrats are not sworn in until January, so any war powers resolution is weeks away.
Weekend headlines lean the same way. Central Command launched Task Force Iron Gate on Saturday to target Iran's land and Caspian routes, and, per media reports cited by CNBC, said it disabled a St. Kitts-flagged ship that tried to leave after visiting an Iranian port. CNBC adds that Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm Island and at Jask, which it could not confirm. Details are in our report.
Bitcoin, the only open market
Bitcoin traded at $75,633 on Coinbase around 9 PM ET, against a 24-hour open of $75,938 and a range of $75,453 to $76,152. Ether was $2,231, from an open of $2,244.
What to watch at Sunday's open
- 6 PM ET Sunday: equity and gold futures reopen. A Gulf escalation over the weekend is the clearest gap risk for oil, and for airlines and fuel-heavy small businesses that bought relief into Friday's close.
- Tuesday, Nov. 10, 8:30 AM ET: October consumer price index, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule. Our weekend brief has the full week ahead.
Sources: CNBC; Yahoo Finance; Coinbase; BLS. Prices are final Friday prints except Bitcoin and Ether. This is market information, not investment advice.
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