Gold sits 26% below its January record at $4,141 as the 10-year yield reaches 5.31%

Spot gold was quoted at $4,141.50 an ounce at 5:51 p.m. Eastern on Monday, according to gold-api.com spot data. The record, set on January 28, 2026, was $5,589.38 an ounce, CBS News reported. By our arithmetic that is a drop of $1,447.88, or 25.9%, in just over eight months.

What moved on Monday

The Kitco AM Report put spot gold at $4,154.60 early in the U.S. session, up 0.36%, with silver up 2% at $61.48. The lift followed Friday's September jobs report: payrolls rose only 29,000, unemployment held at 4.2%, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. Kitco said traders now treat an October pause as the base case, with the chance of no change near 82%, though a December increase is still priced as a meaningful possibility.

That is normally good for gold, which pays no interest and tends to gain when rate hikes look less likely. It did not hold. By the evening the spot quote was $4,141.50, below that early level, as the dollar firmed and yields rose. Kitco's own technical read had buyers looking at $4,160 to $4,190 and sellers waiting for a break below $4,112.

The number gold is trading against

Treasury's daily par yield curve for October 5 shows the 10-year at 5.31%, up from 5.28% on October 2 and 5.24% on October 1. The 2-year is 4.84%. A 4.05% yield on a one-month bill means even a cash-like holding now pays a real return.

Put that against an ounce of gold. At the 10-year yield, $4,141.50 of gold forgoes about $219.91 a year in interest, or roughly $18.33 a month. For a 100-ounce position worth $414,150, that is about $21,990 a year of income not earned. That is a simple opportunity-cost calculation, not a forecast of anything: it ignores storage, insurance and tax, and it assumes the holder could otherwise buy the Treasury at that yield.

The case for gold has not vanished. CBS attributed the January run to geopolitical tension, central-bank buying and a weaker dollar. But with the dollar index at 101.8 on our markets board and the 10-year above 5.3%, those supports are being outweighed for now.

Who feels it

• Coin, bullion and pawn shop owners carry gold inventory bought at higher prices. Every month of a falling or flat market means that stock is financed at a cost, whether by a credit line or by the interest not earned on tied-up cash. At today's yield the carrying cost on a $100,000 inventory is about $5,310 a year before storage and insurance.
• Jewelers who priced finished stock off the peak now hold pieces whose metal content is worth about a quarter less, so repricing and remake decisions get harder, while scrap and trade-in gold comes in cheaper.

What to watch

The next scheduled catalysts are weekly jobless claims on October 8 (forecast 200,000, previous 197,000), September CPI on October 14, and the Fed's rate decision on October 28, all from the markets calendar. A hot CPI print would push hike odds and yields back up, the combination gold has struggled against. For rate context see our Fed and rates coverage and the earlier look at the cost of holding gold.

Sources: Kitco; CBS News; gold-api.com spot quotes; U.S. Treasury. Gold quotes differ slightly by venue and time. This is market information, not investment advice.