Mortgage rates jump to 7.45% in a daily survey, well above Freddie Mac's 7.03% weekly reading

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.45% on Thursday, according to the daily index kept by Mortgage News Daily. That was up from 7.26% on Wednesday, a 19 basis point jump in a single session. The firm ran its lender survey twice because the 10-year Treasury yield kept climbing through the afternoon, CNBC reported.

The same morning, Freddie Mac said its weekly average had crossed 7% for the first time since January 2025, at 7.03% (our story). Both numbers are accurate. They measure different things, and for anyone shopping for a loan this week the gap matters.

Why the two numbers are 42 basis points apart

Freddie Mac's survey averages rate quotes collected from the previous Wednesday through the day before release. Thursday's 7.03% therefore did not include Thursday at all, and it was pulled down by cheaper quotes from late last week. Mortgage News Daily, whose index tracks the rate on a comparable basis after accounting for points and buydowns, says its daily series first went above 7% on September 10, after the inflation reports that preceded last week's Fed rate hike.

Mortgage News Daily also noted that a note rate in the high 6% range can still be quoted, but only by paying more upfront in points. A borrower comparing quotes should look at the points line, not only the headline rate.

What $400,000 costs now

Using standard amortization on a $400,000, 30-year fixed loan, principal and interest only:

Thursday's move alone adds about $52 a month on that loan. Against the Freddie Mac figure most headlines used, the daily rate is about $114 a month more. Against February's low it is about $388 a month, or roughly $4,650 a year. For a lender that caps principal and interest at 28% of gross income, the income needed to carry that payment rises from about $102,700 to about $119,300 a year, before taxes and insurance are counted.

Who feels it first

The people exposed are those with a contract signed and no rate lock yet, including buyers with November closings who were waiting for a better quote. A one-day move of 19 basis points is the kind of swing a lock is meant to absorb. Builders offering rate buydowns face the same arithmetic from the other side: each extra tenth of a point costs more to buy down, which comes out of margin or price.

The bond market behind it

Mortgage rates loosely follow the 10-year Treasury, which the Treasury's official curve put at 5.18% at Thursday's close. What stood out to Mortgage News Daily was the trading volume rather than any single headline. Its market recap counted roughly 3.8 million 10-year Treasury futures contracts traded Thursday, against 2.8 million on September 11 and a typical range of 1 million to 2 million over the past few months. By its afternoon update, mortgage-backed securities were down about three-quarters of a point.

Matthew Graham, Mortgage News Daily's chief operating officer, wrote that there was "no obvious intraday catalyst," and that sellers "decided to sell... a lot." The broader backdrop he cited is higher oil prices, stronger economic data and concern that next week's data could speed up the Fed's hiking path. Chart: 10-year T-note.

Freddie Mac's next weekly reading comes out next Thursday, and it will be the first to include this week's selloff.

Sources: Mortgage News Daily, CNBC, Freddie Mac, U.S. Treasury. Payment figures are principal and interest only, calculated by The Company Chronicle. This is market information, not financial advice.