10-year yield rebounds to about 5.30% as services stay strong and Fed minutes land Wednesday
The 10-year Treasury has risen 27 basis points since the Fed's September hike, and the mortgage rate has followed. A solid ISM services reading and the minutes of that meeting are the next tests.
Treasury yields moved higher on Monday after last week's sell-off, with the 10-year around 5.30%. CNBC reported the 10-year up about 2 basis points at 5.298%, the 30-year up 3 basis points at 5.659%, and the 2-year down almost 1 basis point at 4.818%. The next scheduled catalyst is the release of the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes on Wednesday, October 7.
What the data said
The Institute for Supply Management's services index came in at 54.9 for September, according to CNBC, roughly in line with forecasts and slightly below the prior month's pace. Any reading above 50 means the sector is still expanding, so this was no sign of a slowdown. Friday's jobs report was described by CNBC as lackluster, and it pulled yields down for a day. CNBC says traders now put about an 82% chance on the Fed holding rates at its next meeting, using the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Our economic calendar lists that meeting for October 28.
The number behind the number: 27 basis points since the hike
On September 16 the Fed voted 12 to 0 to raise its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, saying the move would support a timelier return to 2% inflation. Treasury's own daily par yield curve shows what long-term borrowing costs did afterward:
| Maturity | Sept 16 | Oct 2 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.74% | 4.83% | +9 bp |
| 10-year | 5.01% | 5.28% | +27 bp |
| 30-year | 5.35% | 5.63% | +28 bp |
The longer maturities rose three times as much as the 2-year. The Fed raised the short rate, and the bond market answered by pushing the long end up faster. The 2-year now sits about 95 basis points above the middle of the new fed funds range (3.875%), so the market is still pricing a policy rate well above where it is today.
Who it hits
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.28% on October 1, against 6.95% on September 17. On a $400,000 loan that is a principal-and-interest payment of about $2,737 a month instead of $2,648, or $89 more. For a $300,000 loan the gap is $67. Someone with a November closing and no rate lock is exposed to every move between now and then.
Business borrowers face the same pressure through a different channel. Fixed-rate equipment and commercial real estate loans are often priced off the 5-year and 10-year Treasury, which is why the long end matters even though the Fed only sets the short rate. We walked through the effect on specific trades in what 5% Treasury yields mean for a repair shop, a landlord and a dentist.
What to watch Wednesday
The minutes are a record of the September 15-16 discussion, so they cannot say what the Fed will do on October 28. What traders will read for is how many participants favored the hike and how many described further firming as likely if inflation stays high. The statement itself said inflation "remains elevated." After the minutes, September CPI arrives on October 14, which will probably matter more for the October decision than anything said about September.
Earlier coverage: the 5-year yield passing 5% and all Fed and rates stories.
Sources: CNBC (October 5, 2026); U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve rates; Federal Reserve Board FOMC statement of September 16, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Mortgage payments are our own principal-and-interest arithmetic and exclude taxes and insurance. Yields were moving during the day and may differ by the close. This is market information, not investment advice.
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