Marlins vs Cubs: Miami wins 8-2 in 12 innings, and what Chicago needs to clinch tonight

The Miami Marlins beat the Chicago Cubs 8-2 in 12 innings at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night, scoring six times in the 12th after the game sat tied at 2 through regulation. Griffin Conine's bloop single to left scored Esteury Ruiz with the go-ahead run, Jakob Marsee added an RBI single and Joe Mack finished the inning with a two-run single, according to the AP recap on ESPN.

The loss mattered because the Cubs could have locked up a postseason berth with a win. The two teams play again tonight at 7:40 PM ET.

How the game turned

Kyle Stowers did most of Miami's early damage: he doubled and scored on an Agustín Ramírez single in the fourth, then hit his 20th home run in the sixth. Chicago answered in the bottom of the sixth. A Mack error at first base on a throw home let Pete Crow-Armstrong score, and Ian Happ tied it one batter later with a single off Calvin Faucher.

The Cubs' best chance came in the 10th, when they loaded the bases with two outs. Miami second baseman Javier Sanoja made a sliding stop to take a game-ending single away from Pedro Ramírez. Josh Ekness (3-4) got the win with a scoreless inning, and Caleb Thielbar (3-4) took the loss.

Chicago again played without third baseman Alex Bregman, who is recovering from multiple facial fractures after being hit in the face by a foul ball. The AP reported he could return before the regular season ends this weekend.

The clinch math

The loss did not hurt Chicago's position much, because the only team still chasing it also won. Here is the National League wild-card picture from ESPN's standings after Tuesday:

Three teams are tied for the three wild-card spots, and Arizona, which won 7-2 at Colorado on Tuesday, is four games back. Every other non-division leader in the league has been eliminated.

The detail that makes Chicago's path short is the tiebreaker. The Cubs went 4-2 against the Diamondbacks this season, winning all three at Wrigley in May and splitting three in Arizona in late August, according to ESPN's schedule results. So a tie with Arizona goes to Chicago. That means the Cubs' magic number is 1: any Cubs win, or any Arizona loss, clinches a playoff berth. The Diamondbacks play at Colorado again tonight at 8:40 PM ET.

What is still open is seeding. With three teams level, where each of them lands, and who gets home field in the wild-card round, will come down to the last five days. For San Diego's side of it, see our Padres vs Dodgers clinch breakdown.

Tonight: Gausman vs Gusto

MLB lists Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.55 ERA) for the Cubs and Ryan Gusto (1-5, 4.14) for Miami, matching the MLB Stats API and ESPN. The Marlins, 77-80 and already eliminated, snapped a three-game losing streak on Tuesday.

DraftKings, via ESPN, has the Cubs at -193 and the Marlins at +158, with the total at 6.5 runs. The Cubs opened at -175, so the price has moved toward Chicago since the line was posted. Taking the bookmaker's margin out, those prices put the Cubs' chance at roughly 63%. That is arithmetic on a published price, not a prediction.

After tonight, the teams finish the series Thursday at 2:20 PM ET, and the Cubs close the regular season with a series at Boston. Live scores are on our MLB scoreboard, and the rest of the week is on the MLB schedule.

Sources: AP recap via ESPN, ESPN standings, ESPN scoreboard and Chicago Cubs schedule, MLB Stats API, DraftKings line as shown by ESPN. We take no bets and sell no picks.