Oracle falls 6.6% on a data center force majeure notice; $288 billion of its leases have yet to start

Oracle shares fell 6.6% to $135.04 in early trading on Thursday, according to Nasdaq data, after Bloomberg reported that the company sent a "force majeure" notice on its New Mexico data center campus, known as Project Jupiter. The notice went to the developer, a unit of Blue Owl Capital, and according to the report is meant to let Oracle delay payments if the site does not come online as expected in 2028.

Oracle told CNBC that "Project Jupiter remains on our planned schedule." Blue Owl said the notice "does not change the financial commitments to this multi-year project." Blue Owl shares were down 4.6% at $9.16.

Why one notice moves a $400 billion stock

A force majeure clause excuses a party from its obligations when something outside its control gets in the way. Sending the notice is not the same as refusing to pay. What spooked the market is what the notice signals about the rest of Oracle's buildout, and the company's own quarterly filing shows how large that is.

In its 10-Q for the quarter ended Aug. 31, Oracle disclosed $288 billion of additional lease commitments, "substantially all related to data center arrangements," that are expected to start between now and fiscal 2029, with terms of 15 to 19 years. None of that is on the balance sheet yet. For comparison, the lease liability Oracle does carry today is $34.6 billion, and its total borrowings were about $125.3 billion ($7.6 billion current plus $117.7 billion long term).

At Thursday morning's price, Nasdaq puts Oracle's market value at about $408.7 billion. The leases still to come equal roughly 70% of that, on our arithmetic.

The cash side

Oracle is spending more on data centers than its business generates in cash, and it covered the gap in the latest quarter partly by selling nearly $20 billion of new stock, using up its whole $20 billion program. The $664 billion of contracted future revenue is the bull case: the filing says about 13% of it should turn into revenue over the next 12 months. The bear case is timing. If campuses like Jupiter slip, the revenue arrives later while the lease and debt costs do not wait.

That is the real reading of a force majeure notice. It is a tool for shifting the cost of a delay onto the developer and its lenders. CNBC, citing the Financial Times, reported that the $18 billion of debt tied to the New Mexico site already trades at stressed levels.

Who is exposed

Oracle shareholders own a stock that Nasdaq data shows is down about 58% from its 52-week high of $322.54, so the market was already pricing execution risk before today.

Blue Owl and data center lenders carry the other side. A developer whose tenant can delay rent needs its lenders to be patient. Blue Owl's shares fell alongside Oracle's on the report.

Contractors, electricians and suppliers working on AI campuses should watch payment terms. A delay excused at the top of the contract chain tends to slow payments down the chain too.

Oracle has not said what event, if any, prompted the notice. The project has faced local opposition and environmental objections, according to CNBC.

Sources: CNBC; Bloomberg; Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Aug. 31, 2026; Nasdaq. Ratio and percentage-from-high figures are Chronicle calculations. This is market information, not investment advice.