Before the bell: futures dip with the 10-year at 5.28%, euro hits a 17-month low, Aramco warns on oil stocks

U.S. stock futures were slightly lower early Monday as Treasury yields stayed near multiyear highs. At 7:17 a.m. ET, December S&P 500 e-mini futures were at 7,768.25, down about 0.1% from Friday's settlement, with Nasdaq-100 futures down about 0.2% and Dow futures down about 0.1%, on Yahoo Finance quotes. Russell 2000 futures were flat. CNBC reported the Dow future down about 0.2% and tied the caution to yields ahead of the Fed minutes. Live levels: markets board.

Yields and the Fed

The 10-year Treasury closed Friday at 5.28%, up from 5.24% on Thursday, and the 2-year at 4.83%, on the Treasury's official curve. CNBC noted the Fed raised its overnight rate by a quarter point last month and will release the minutes of that meeting on Wednesday. Investors will read them for how many officials wanted to go further, and the October 27-28 meeting is the next decision.

The number to watch for borrowers is the gap between the 10-year and the 2-year, now 45 basis points. Freddie Mac's weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage reached 7.28% on Thursday, up from 7.03% a week earlier, per Freddie Mac. On a $400,000 loan, that week's move lifts principal and interest from about $2,669 to about $2,737 a month, or $68. Thursday's rate was set before Friday's 4 basis point rise in the 10-year, so any further change shows up in this week's survey.

Today's data

The ISM services index is the main release, forecast at 55 against 55.4 previously, and the final S&P Global composite PMI is due with a prior reading of 56, on our economic calendar. Weekly jobless claims follow Thursday, forecast at 200,000 after 197,000. September CPI arrives October 14.

Overnight: euro, Aramco, deals

• Euro: The euro fell to its weakest against the dollar since May 19, 2025, down about 0.6% on LSEG data, CNBC reported, after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called a November 29 snap election and as France's budget faces doubts. Our board has EUR/USD near 1.12. A stronger dollar is a headwind for U.S. exporters and a help to importers paying in euros.
• Oil: Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said it could take up to two years to rebuild global inventories, according to CNBC and Reuters. He said nearly 3 billion barrels of supply have been lost since late February and about 1 billion released from stocks. December Brent was about $102.92 and November WTI about $90.76 in CNBC's report. The G7 agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude, which is a fraction of the shortfall Nasser described.
• Schneider Electric and PTC: Schneider agreed to buy PTC for $22.6 billion in cash at $205 a share, a 42% premium to PTC's last close, with completion expected by the third quarter of 2027, per CNBC. Schneider shares fell 7.6% in early European trading.
• Brazil: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF was up 13% premarket after Flavio Bolsonaro led Sunday's first round with 47%, about two points ahead of President Lula, who meets him in an October 25 runoff, CNBC said.
• Asia: Japan's Nikkei 225 closed up 2.40% at 69,946.86.
• Crypto: Bitcoin was $85,939, up 0.74% in 24 hours, and Ether $2,712, up 0.46%, on Coinbase prices from our board.

Sources: CNBC, Reuters via CNBC, U.S. Treasury, Freddie Mac, Yahoo Finance, Coinbase, Chronicle markets board. Premarket prices move quickly and early volume is thin. This is market information, not investment advice.