Accenture was priced for 7.5% and jumped 18%; Nike options price an 8.6% move after tonight's report
Micron, priced for 7.6%, is down about 1%. Nike has beaten estimates four straight times and still fell 10.5% and 15.5% on two of them; its options price $3.04 either way, with implied volatility at a one-year low.
Two of the three large reports we priced on Wednesday are now in, and they missed the options market in opposite directions. Accenture was priced for a 7.5% move and is up more than 18%. Micron was priced for 7.6% and is down about 1%. Nike reports after Thursday's close (date confirmed), and its options are priced for an 8.6% move, a little less than its recent average.
How the number is built
Each figure is an at-the-money straddle: the price of one call plus one put at the strike closest to the share price, in the first expiry after the report. It measures how big a move, up or down, the options market is paying for. It is not a forecast and it says nothing about direction. Thursday's prices come from the Robinhood feed at 7:04 a.m. Eastern; past moves run from the close before each report to the close after it.
The scorecard
| Company | Priced move (Wed feed) | Avg. of last 4 moves | Move by 11:20 a.m. Thu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accenture (ACN) | $13.20 (7.5%) | 6.6% | +$33.83 (+18.5%) |
| Micron (MU) | $81.28 (7.6%) | 8.1% | -$13.63 (-1.3%) |
Accenture traded at $217.20 at 11:20 a.m., against a $183.37 close on Wednesday, according to Nasdaq. That is more than twice what the straddle priced and larger than the 18.0% drop in June that had dominated its four-report average. CNBC reported the stock was up more than 22% at one point, on pace for its biggest one-day gain on FactSet's records, after earnings of $3.29 a share against an LSEG consensus of $3.18. Our Accenture results story covers the $22.2 billion in bookings behind it. Its options had been cheap: implied volatility rank was 0.07 on Wednesday, near a one-year low.
Micron was at $1,051.48, down from $1,065.11, per Nasdaq. A quarter of $54.2 billion and guidance of $61.5 billion, covered in our Micron story, produced one of its smallest reactions of the past year. Both moves are intraday, not closes.
Taken with Jabil and Conagra earlier this week, four reports have now moved 18.5%, 6.2%, 5.4% and 1.3% against straddles priced between 5.4% and 7.9%. The straddle is a price for uncertainty, not an estimate of the actual move.
Still to report
| Company | Reports | Feed price | Implied move | Avg. of last 4 moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nike (NKE) | Thu Oct 1, after close | $35.28 | $3.04 (8.6%) | 9.3% |
| Constellation Brands (STZ) | Tue Oct 6, after close | $112.70 | $5.80 (5.1%) | 4.1% |
Nike: four beats, two big drops
Nike's straddle at the $35.50 strike, expiring Friday, costs $3.04. From the feed price, that brackets roughly $32.24 to $38.32. The stock was at $35.74 at 11:20 a.m., up 1.0%, per Nasdaq. Implied volatility rank is 0, the bottom of its one-year range, so options are about as cheap as they have been in a year even with a report hours away.
The history explains why a beat alone tells you little. Nike topped the consensus estimate in each of its last four reports, and the stock's reaction swung from a 6.4% gain to a 15.5% loss:
| Report | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | $0.27 | $0.49 | +6.4% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | $0.37 | $0.53 | -10.5% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | $0.28 | $0.35 | -15.5% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | $0.12 | $0.20 | +4.9% |
The two largest moves were both down, and both came after beats. The estimate for this quarter is 44 cents. As we reported in our preview, last quarter's reported profit included tariff refunds, so the headline number and the underlying one can point different ways. The 8.6% priced move sits below the 9.3% average and below two of the four past reactions.
Constellation Brands: a slightly richer price
Constellation reports Tuesday after the close. Its straddle prices 5.1%, a bit above its 4.1% average, from moves of 1.0%, 5.3%, 8.5% and -1.6%. One caveat: the expiry used is Friday, October 9, three days after the report, so the figure includes a few days of ordinary trading on top of the earnings reaction. Implied volatility rank is 0. The stock was at $112.26 at 11:20 a.m.
Left out
McCormick and Acuity reported Thursday morning. Lamb Weston, RPM, Penguin Solutions, Neogen and Worthington Steel report next Tuesday. Their nearest usable options expire October 16, so those numbers mix the earnings reaction with ordinary trading. Accenture's straddle in Thursday's feed was set after its report had already moved the stock, so it is excluded too.
Filings are on SEC EDGAR: Nike, Accenture, Micron and Constellation Brands.
Sources: implied volatility, straddle prices, earnings dates, estimates and past earnings moves via Robinhood; live quotes via Nasdaq; CNBC; filings via SEC EDGAR. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.
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