Nike was priced for 8.6% and fell 6.8%; Applied Digital options price a 12.7% move, the richest in a year

Nike's options were priced for an 8.6% move after Thursday night's report, and by 11:20 a.m. Friday the stock was down 6.8%, inside that range but not by much. Next week the focus shifts to two names: Constellation Brands on Tuesday and Applied Digital on Wednesday, where the priced move is above the stock's own recent history and options are as expensive as they have been in a year.

How the number is built

Every figure here is an at-the-money straddle: the price of one call plus one put at the strike closest to the share price, in the first expiry after the report. It is not a forecast, and it says nothing about which way the stock goes. Prices come from the Robinhood feed collected at 7:05 a.m. Eastern on Friday, before the open. Past moves run from the close before each report to the close after it.

Nike: inside the range, after touching the edge

In Thursday's feed, Nike's straddle cost $3.04 against a $35.28 share price, which bracketed roughly $32.24 to $38.32. The stock closed Thursday at $35.15 and traded at $32.78 at 11:20 a.m. Friday, down $2.38, according to Nasdaq. Its morning low, $31.97, was 9.0% below Thursday's close, briefly outside the priced range. All are intraday figures.

CNBC reported the drop followed a weak revenue outlook and layoff plans. Our Nike results story has the detail: a forecast for a high-single-digit revenue decline this fiscal year and an earnings range of $1.15 to $1.35 a share, below the $1.64 a year Nike pays in dividends. Earnings of 48 cents topped the 44-cent estimate in the feed, so this is the third time in five reports that a beat was followed by a drop.

Next week's earnings-only expected moves

Company	Reports	Feed price	Implied move	Avg. of last 4 moves	IV rank (1 yr)
Constellation Brands (STZ)	Tue Oct 6, after close	$113.40	$6.55 (5.8%)	4.1%	0.00
Applied Digital (APLD)	Wed Oct 7, after close	$24.62	$3.13 (12.7%)	8.3%	1.00

Both dates are marked confirmed in the feed and match the dates listed on Nasdaq's earnings pages for Constellation and Applied Digital. Both straddles use the October 9 expiry, so each figure also carries two or three days of ordinary trading after the report.

Applied Digital: the most expensive options in a year

Applied Digital's straddle at the $24.50 strike costs $3.13, which brackets roughly $21.49 to $27.75 from the feed price. Implied volatility rank is 1.00, the top of its one-year range, at an implied volatility of 84%. The stock was at $25.30 at 11:20 a.m., up 4.7% on the day, per Nasdaq, and well below the $50.72 top of its 52-week range.

The history is where the price looks rich. Applied Digital has come in better than the consensus estimate in each of its last four reports:

Report	EPS estimate	EPS actual	Stock move
Oct 9, 2025	-$0.14	-$0.03	+16.1%
Jan 7, 2026	-$0.17	$0.00	+8.1%
Apr 8, 2026	-$0.17	$0.09	-8.0%
Jul 27, 2026	-$0.36	$0.04	+0.9%

Only one of those four moves, the 16.1% gain a year ago, was larger than the 12.7% now priced. The average is 8.3%. Options are charging about one and a half times the stock's recent typical reaction, at the highest volatility of the past year. The consensus for the quarter ending August is a loss of 29 cents a share in the Robinhood feed and 25 cents in the Zacks figure Nasdaq shows, both wider than the 11-cent loss a year earlier.

Constellation Brands: a richer price than last week

Constellation's straddle at the $113 strike costs $6.55, a range of roughly $106.85 to $119.95. That is 5.8%, up from 5.1% in Wednesday's feed, and above the 4.1% average of its last four moves (1.0%, 5.3%, 8.5% and -1.6%). It beat the estimate on all four. Implied volatility rank is 0, so the options are cheap against their own year even as the priced move edges up. The stock was at $112.40 at 11:20 a.m., less than a dollar above its $111.54 52-week low.

Reported separately

Lamb Weston, RPM, Penguin Solutions, Neogen and Worthington Steel report Tuesday, and Levi Strauss on Wednesday. Their nearest usable options expire October 16, nine or ten days after the reports, so their straddles mix the earnings reaction with more than a week of ordinary trading and are left out.

Filings are on SEC EDGAR: Applied Digital, Constellation Brands and Nike.

Sources: implied volatility, straddle prices, earnings dates, estimates and past earnings moves via Robinhood; live quotes and earnings dates via Nasdaq (Zacks consensus); CNBC; filings via SEC EDGAR. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.