Kalshi in talks to raise $1 billion at about $40 billion, 82% above May and more than Cboe is worth

Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, is in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation of about $40 billion, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Tiger Global and Dragoneer are in talks to invest, and existing backer Sequoia Capital is in talks to lead the round with Wellington Management. The round could be finalized in the coming weeks. Kalshi and Tiger Global declined to comment to Reuters.

Kalshi raised $1 billion in May at a $22 billion valuation. At $40 billion, the new price would be 82% higher in about four months ($40 billion divided by $22 billion is 1.82). A $1 billion raise at $40 billion is about 2.5% of the company, if the reported figure is the post-money valuation.

What $40 billion compares with

The number is easiest to judge against the listed exchanges Kalshi now says it wants to compete with. Market values from Nasdaq data on Tuesday:

Cboe runs the exclusive S&P 500 index options franchise and reports audited earnings every quarter. Kalshi, founded in 2018, would be valued above it on a private round. Private valuations and public market values are not the same thing, and Kalshi does not publish audited results, so the comparison measures what investors are willing to pay, not what the businesses earn.

What investors are paying for, and the risk they are pricing through

According to Reuters, Kalshi wants to become a one-stop trading venue across asset classes, competing with CME and Intercontinental Exchange rather than just offering event contracts. It has overtaken Polymarket in market share over the past year, Reuters said, citing Dune Analytics data, while Polymarket, backed by ICE, is in separate talks to raise $1 billion. Kalshi has held early talks about a possible IPO in the coming years.

The part that the valuation step-up glosses over is legal. Last week a unanimous Sixth Circuit panel ruled that Kalshi's sports-event contracts are not swaps and would not be shielded from state gambling rules even if they were. Sports contracts are one of Kalshi's core markets, so that ruling goes to the heart of the business in the states the court covers. Investors being in talks at an 82% higher price five days later suggests they are either looking past that fight or counting on the expansion beyond sports to carry the valuation. Kalshi has also asked the CFTC to allow margin trading for large institutional members, another step toward looking like a conventional futures exchange.

For traders, the practical read is that capital is not a constraint on Kalshi's push into new contract types. Regulators and courts are. Lawmakers including Sen. Adam Schiff have raised concerns about investor protection as the platforms list contracts tied to big stocks, Reuters noted.

We track what these markets price for the Fed and Bitcoin in our prediction markets coverage.

Sources: Reuters; Nasdaq market data (market values as of September 29, 2026). Valuation ratios are Chronicle calculations. This is market information, not investment advice.