Kinross Gold falls 11.7% after cutting output guidance; the stock lost about $3.8 billion in a day

Kinross Gold shares closed down 11.66% at $24.40 on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, a drop of $3.22, according to Nasdaq.com data. Volume was about 19.7 million shares against a daily average of about 16.7 million. The stock opened down 9.81%, Kitco's feed reported, and traded as low as $24.03.

The cause is on the record. On Wednesday, Kinross issued an operational update, filed with the SEC on Thursday, cutting its production outlook for this year and next.

What Kinross said

• Production: 2026 and 2027 attributable output is now expected 2% to 3% below the low end of prior guidance, at about 1.84 million to 1.86 million gold equivalent ounces a year. Third-quarter output is expected at about 425,000 ounces.
• Where: two smaller mines. At La Coipa in Chile, the company cited "unprecedented winter weather events" through the quarter, plus copper-rich ore that recovered less gold than expected. At Round Mountain in Nevada, lower mining rates, grades and recoveries in the Phase S pit.
• Costs per ounce: with fewer ounces to spread costs over, attributable all-in sustaining cost is now expected at about $1,850 to $1,900 an ounce, and production cost of sales at $1,420 to $1,460. Total operating and capital spending for the year is unchanged "despite higher oil prices."
• Shareholder returns: the target rises to 50% of free cash flow for 2026 from 40%. Kinross said it has returned about $800 million so far this year, including about $655 million of buybacks.

Its two largest mines, Paracatu in Brazil and Tasiast in Mauritania, are still expected to produce a combined 1.1 million ounces, in line with guidance.

The number behind the number

Here is the scale of what changed, by our arithmetic. If 1.84 million to 1.86 million ounces is 2% to 3% below the old low end, that old floor was roughly 1.88 million to 1.92 million ounces. The cut is on the order of 40,000 to 60,000 ounces a year.

Spot gold was about $4,274 an ounce late Thursday on our markets board. Against the midpoint of the new cost range, each ounce clears roughly $2,400 before taxes and other costs. That puts the lost ounces at something like $90 million to $140 million a year, or $180 million to $280 million across the two years.

The stock market took much more than that. With a market value of about $29.1 billion at Thursday's close on Nasdaq.com data, the $3.22 drop works out to roughly $3.8 billion of value lost in one session.

The gap tells you the selloff is not only about the missing ounces. Investors are also pricing a higher cost per ounce, the hit to confidence in the company's forecasts, and the question of whether the issues at La Coipa and Round Mountain are done. Kinross says conditions at La Coipa have "begun to stabilize." Its own 2026 cost assumptions use gold at $4,350, slightly above Thursday's price.

Who it hits

Gold miners are the market's leveraged bet on the metal: costs are largely fixed, so small changes in output or price move profit a lot. That cuts both ways, and Thursday showed the downside. Kinross now trades about 38% below its 52-week high of $39.11 and just above its 52-week low of $22.01.

What to watch: the third-quarter report, where the 425,000-ounce estimate gets tested, and the pace of buybacks under the higher payout target. Follow the metal on our gold chart.

Sources: Kinross Gold via SEC Form 6-K, Nasdaq.com, Kitco. Ounce, margin and value figures are our arithmetic from company and market data. This is market information, not investment advice.