New Mexico jury finds Meta misled users; the state's violation count implies a $219 billion ceiling nobody expects

A jury in Santa Fe found on Friday that Meta Platforms misled New Mexico residents in a case that grew out of the Cambridge Analytica scandal. That scandal involved data from as many as 87 million Facebook users, harvested through a third-party app and used to profile voters, Reuters reported. The verdict followed a two-week trial. The penalty is now up to Judge Francis Mathew of the 1st Judicial District Court.

The Albuquerque Journal reported the detail of the verdict. Jurors weighed 29 statements by the company and found 26 of them "false or deceptive" under the state's Unfair Practices Act. They also found five "unconscionable" trade practices, including failing to tell users that a third-party app developer had accessed their data.

The number behind the verdict

The penalty math starts with how many people each statement reached. Jurors found that each one applied to at least 1.4 million New Mexicans, the estimated number of Facebook users in the state in 2020. The act allows a penalty of up to $5,000 per violation. The state's lead attorney, Randi McGinn, put the total number of separate violations at 43,899,720, the Journal reported.

Multiply those out and the theoretical ceiling is about $219.5 billion. That is roughly 11% of Meta's market value of about $1.91 trillion, based on Nasdaq data at Friday's close. No one involved is treating it as a likely outcome, and the precedents point far lower:

• New Mexico's own first trial. In March a Santa Fe jury ordered Meta to pay $375 million in civil penalties over young users' safety. After a second phase, a judge directed $567 million into a state fund for teen mental health, Reuters reported.
• The same claims, settled elsewhere. Meta later reached a settlement of up to about $16.7 billion with 47 states, Washington, D.C., and U.S. territories over claims that it designed its apps to addict children. As part of that deal it agreed to pay $459 million to the handful of states that had sued over Cambridge Analytica privacy violations. New Mexico was not part of the settlement, which is why this case went to trial.

The per-violation cap is what gives the state its leverage. The precedents, including a $459 million figure for several states combined on essentially the same conduct, show where a court or a settlement has actually landed.

When any money would move

Not soon. Mathew plans hearings for both sides to argue the judgment. McGinn said Meta is almost certain to appeal and that the state is unlikely to be paid until the appeal is resolved. "We aren't going to see the money for four or five years," she told the Journal.

Meta said it disagrees with the verdict. "We have a First Amendment right to manage those platforms in a way we believe best serves the interests of our community," the company said in a statement, adding that it will keep defending itself "against efforts to distort our record." At trial Meta argued that the state had cherry-picked snippets of its statements, and it denied that it sells users' information, Reuters reported.

Meta shares closed down 3.33% at $751.66 on Friday, just below Thursday's close of $777.59, which was near their 52-week high. The verdict landed during the session, but the stock has had several other drivers this week, including its Muse AI agent launch, so the drop cannot be pinned on the verdict alone. For traders, the next events are the penalty hearings and the teen-harm trials Reuters said are scheduled for October and February.

Sources: Reuters, Albuquerque Journal, Nasdaq market data. The $219.5 billion ceiling is our arithmetic on the state's estimate and is not a forecast. This is market information, not investment advice.