Microsoft stock: what is actually going on

Microsoft is worth about $3.83 trillion, and this year its stock has been two different trades. This page is our running explanation of what the business is, what the last reported quarter showed, and what is moving the shares now. Every figure below comes from Microsoft's own filings or from exchange data, with the date attached.

The share price and the size of the company

Microsoft was trading at $516.13 at 12:30 p.m. Eastern on Friday, September 25, 2026, up 3.66% on the day from Thursday's $497.93 close, according to Nasdaq data. That gives a market value of about $3.83 trillion. The 52-week range is $349.20 to $553.72.

The headline figure most outlets use, that the stock was up about 3% for the year through Thursday, hides the path it took. Using Nasdaq's daily closes:

Point	Close	Change
End of 2025 (Dec 31)	$483.62
2026 low (June 25)	$352.83	-27.0% from year start
Day before Q4 results (July 29)	$390.54
Day after Q4 results (July 30)	$451.10	+15.5% in one session
Friday, 12:30 p.m. (Sept 25)	$516.13	+46.3% from the June low, +6.7% on the year

The shares remain about 6.8% below the $553.72 high set on October 28, 2025. For anyone who owned the stock all year, the ride was a 27% drawdown and a full recovery, not a quiet 3%.

Where the money comes from

From this fiscal year Microsoft reports two segments instead of three. On September 2 it restated its history on the new basis, which gives the cleanest picture of the business. In the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, revenue was $331.8 billion:

• Agents and Infra: $268.1 billion, 80.8% of revenue and 87.8% of operating income. This holds the cloud and the business software.
  • Azure: $101.9 billion (30.7% of total revenue)
  • Microsoft 365 cloud, now including GitHub and Security Copilot: $100.3 billion (30.2%)
  • Productivity and server licensing: $37.3 billion (11.2%)
  • Industry solutions (Dynamics 365, LinkedIn recruiting and sales tools, healthcare cloud): $20.3 billion (6.1%)
  • Frontier and support services: $8.3 billion (2.5%)
• Devices and Consumer: $63.7 billion, 19.2% of revenue. Search and advertising including LinkedIn ads $24.8 billion, Xbox $21.8 billion, Windows OEM and devices $17.1 billion.

Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time. It and Microsoft 365 are now almost exactly the same size, and together they are more than 60% of the company.

The last reported quarter

Microsoft reported its fiscal fourth quarter on July 29, 2026:

• Revenue: $90.0 billion, up 18%.
• Operating income: $40.6 billion, up 18%.
• Earnings per share: $4.81 GAAP, $4.74 excluding gains from its OpenAI investment, up 23% on that adjusted basis. The quarter included a $3.2 billion gain on Microsoft's investment in Anthropic.
• Azure grew 43% as reported then (42% on the new definition). Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, up 27%.
• Commercial remaining performance obligation, contracted revenue not yet booked, rose 84% to $678 billion. The 10-K says about 30% of it, roughly $203 billion, should be recognised in the next 12 months.
• Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats, according to chief executive Satya Nadella.

For the current quarter, ending September 30, Microsoft guided to revenue of $89.85 billion to $90.95 billion, which works out to growth of about 16% to 17%, Azure growth of 44% to 45% in constant currency, flat operating margin, and capital spending of more than $50 billion in the quarter.

What is driving the stock right now

1. The Copilot relaunch. Friday's gain came as Microsoft unveiled a rebuilt Copilot app combining chat, coding and an always-on agent, with the new features billed by usage. CNBC reported that fewer than 7% of more than 450 million commercial Office 365 seats pay for Copilot. That gap is the upside case: the 30 million seats are a small share of the installed base. Our story on the launch works through the billing change.

2. Azure capacity. Guidance for 44% to 45% Azure growth, on a base that is now over $100 billion a year, is the main number investors are pricing. The July 30 jump of 15.5% came the day after that guide.

3. How much it costs to get there. See the bear case below. The question is less whether demand exists than what Microsoft has to spend to serve it.

The bear case, stated fairly

The earnings are growing fast. The cash is not. From the 10-K cash flow statement, fiscal 2026 additions to property and equipment were $115.9 billion, up 80% from $64.6 billion. Operating cash flow rose to $182.9 billion from $136.2 billion, but after capital spending, free cash flow was $67.0 billion, down about 6% from $71.6 billion, in a year when net income rose 31%. Cash and short-term investments fell to $76.8 billion from $94.6 billion.

That capital spending also excludes leases. The 10-K discloses $329.1 billion of additional leases, mainly data centers, that had not yet commenced at June 30, starting between fiscal 2027 and 2033.

The cost shows up in margins. In the restated fourth quarter, Agents and Infra revenue grew 22.7% while its cost of revenue grew 33.8%. Gross margin in the segment slipped to 68.5% from 71.2% a year earlier. Operating margin held near 49% only because expenses grew more slowly.

The consumer side is soft. Devices and Consumer operating income fell 5.6% in the fourth quarter, and the guide calls for Windows OEM and devices revenue to fall by a low-twenties percentage this quarter and Xbox content and services to decline. Add the admission, reported by CNBC, that Microsoft is catching up to OpenAI and Anthropic on bundled AI tools while still relying on their models, and the bear case is that Microsoft spends like a utility on infrastructure while the most valuable AI software layer is contested.

What we are watching

• Fiscal first-quarter results. Microsoft had not announced a date as of September 25. Nasdaq's data vendor, Zacks, projects November 4 by algorithm, with a consensus of $4.69 a share against $4.13 a year earlier. Results will be the first reported in the new two-segment format.
• Azure against the 44% to 45% guide, and whether capital spending lands above $50 billion as signalled.
• Free cash flow. Whether operating cash flow keeps pace with capital spending, and how fast the $329.1 billion of pending leases begin.
• Copilot pricing. When Microsoft publishes usage rates for Cowork, Code and Autopilot, and whether paid seats move beyond 30 million.
• Gulf and international build-outs. Microsoft's new Middle East plan is mostly money already pledged, but it adds to the list of long-dated commitments.
• Rates. The Fed has just moved policy to 3.75% to 4%, which raises the cost of financing the data center build-out across the industry. See our coverage of the decision and live levels on the markets page.

Sources: Microsoft fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results, July 29, 2026; Microsoft Form 10-K for fiscal 2026; FY27 Segments and Investor Metrics, September 2, 2026; Nasdaq quote, summary, historical prices and earnings-date data for MSFT, retrieved September 25, 2026; CNBC; Official Microsoft Blog. Free cash flow, revenue shares and price changes calculated by The Company Chronicle. This page is updated as the numbers change. This is market information, not investment advice.