Stocks close lower for a second day as the 30-year yield ends at 5.59%; Fair Isaac falls 26%

Stocks ended lower for a second straight session Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92, the S&P 500 lost 12.85 points to 7,670.84 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 22.84 points to 26,797.54, according to Yahoo Finance closing data. CNBC reported the same closes and said bank stocks led the decline.

Oil fell, the long end still rose

The obvious read would be that a drop in crude should have eased pressure on bonds. It did not. WTI crude futures fell 3.82% to $89.06 a barrel, a move OilPrice.com tied to renewed prospects for U.S.-Iran talks and restarted Saudi loadings from Yanbu. Yet the Treasury's official closing curve shows the 30-year yield up 3 basis points to 5.59% and the 10-year up 2 to 5.26% (Treasury data). The 30-year briefly topped 5.6%, its highest since June 2002, CNBC reported.

The short end went the other way. The 2-year fell 3 basis points to 4.89% after softer data, which widened the gap between the 10-year and 2-year from 0.32 point to 0.37 point in a day. That split matters for borrowers. A business line priced off prime follows the Fed's rate, which traders still see rising: CNBC cited CME FedWatch odds above 72% for an October hike. Fixed long-term debt, including home loans, follows the 10-year. The 10-year is up 9 basis points since Friday's 5.17% close. As an illustration only, if that passed straight through to a 7% 30-year mortgage, the payment on a $400,000 loan would rise from about $2,661 to about $2,685 a month. Chart: 10-year T-note.

The data and the movers

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, against an expected rise to 89, CNBC reported. JOLTS job openings came in at 7.079 million versus a 7.225 million forecast and 7.335 million previously, according to our economic calendar.

Fair Isaac was the day's biggest large-cap loser, down 26.52% to $617.87 after the FHFA said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would use one pricing grid that includes VantageScore (what that switch means). Bank of America fell 0.92%, JPMorgan 0.48% and Morgan Stanley 0.45%. By SPDR sector fund closes, utilities led at +1.17%, while energy (-0.90%) and materials (-0.75%) lagged.

What comes next

Wednesday brings ADP payrolls, forecast at 70,000, and the final second-quarter GDP estimate, forecast at 1.5%, according to our calendar. ISM manufacturing follows Thursday and the September jobs report Friday.

Sources: CNBC, U.S. Treasury, Yahoo Finance, OilPrice.com, Chronicle markets board. WTI is the latest Yahoo Finance futures quote after the stock close. The mortgage example is arithmetic, not a quote. This is market information, not investment advice.