The Nightcap: futures hold Friday's gains as Russia diesel deal meets a 71% Gulf oil shut-in
S&P 500 futures are 0.15% above the cash close at 9:01 PM ET. Washington opened a six-month sanctions license for Russian diesel while Hurricane Isaias took 71.5% of Gulf oil output offline.
The biggest story tonight is diesel, pulled two ways at once. After the close, President Trump said Russia will supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, and the Treasury said it directed the Office of Foreign Assets Control to issue a temporary general license authorizing Russian diesel sales to the global market until April 7, CNBC reported. The same day, OilPrice.com reported that Hurricane Isaias had shut in 1,458,814 barrels a day, 71.51% of Gulf oil production, up from 62.89% on Thursday.
Futures at 9:01 PM ET
| Instrument | Level | Friday cash close | Gap to close |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,823.6 | 7,811.54 | +0.15% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 30,928.2 | 30,883.15 | +0.15% |
| Dow futures | 51,740.8 | 51,654.95 | +0.17% |
| Gold (spot) | $4,194.65 | about $4,196 at 4:36 PM | flat |
Futures, gold and oil from the Chronicle markets board at 9:01 PM ET; cash closes from Yahoo Finance. The board quotes continuous contracts, so a small gap to cash is not a signal. Gold futures settled at $4,220.30, up 1.5% on the day, a different contract from spot.
What the diesel deal is, and is not
Trump wrote that after the first 300,000 tons, Russia would send 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons "immediately thereafter," with another 3 million depending on refinery conditions. OilPrice.com put the first three tranches at roughly 13 million barrels. That is real supply but small beside the 25 million barrels Germany and France are releasing from emergency stocks, and Russia has kept diesel exports mostly shut for months because Ukrainian strikes cut refinery output, per the same report. The schedule is the president's own account, not a signed contract we have seen.
Politics may matter more than barrels. The license lands three weeks after Trump signed a law giving him tariff powers against major buyers of Russian oil, and Ukraine's president called easing sanctions "an obvious weakness," according to CNBC. WTI slipped toward $91 on the news, per OilPrice.com. Our board shows WTI at $93.09 and Brent at $107.24, but those quotes have run $1 to $2 above Yahoo's settlements ($91.66 for WTI) all week, so we do not read them as an overnight rally.
For diesel buyers, the near-term risk is still the Gulf. Isaias was due to come ashore near Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle late Friday or early Saturday, per our close story, and refineries there have little spare capacity. Restart timing depends on damage, OilPrice.com noted. Our guide to what record diesel means for truckers, landscapers and farms covers the cost side.
Rates and crypto
The Treasury's par curve had the 10-year at 5.24% Friday, up from 5.22%, with the 2-year at 4.80% and the 30-year at 5.60%. The dollar index is 101.90. Bitcoin is $82,489, up 0.69% over 24 hours, and Ether is $2,486, up 0.23%, per Coinbase quotes on our board.
Next week
Nothing on our economic calendar before Tuesday. September CPI is due Wednesday, October 14, with a forecast of 0.6% for the month and 3.7% year over year, then retail sales and jobless claims on October 15. The Fed's rate decision follows on October 28. Over the weekend, watch where Isaias makes landfall and what it does to refinery output before Sunday evening's reopening.
Sources: Chronicle markets board, Yahoo Finance, U.S. Treasury, CNBC, OilPrice.com, Coinbase. Quotes may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.
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