Uranium hits a record $96 a pound, yet Cameco trades 37% below its high as utilities balk at the price
Long-term uranium contracts topped their 2007 peak, TD Cowen data show. Producer and reactor stocks went the other way: NuScale and Oklo are each more than 80% below their 52-week highs.
The long-term contract price for uranium has reached $96 a pound, an all-time high that tops the $95 peak of mid-2007, according to UxC data compiled by TD Cowen and reported by OilPrice.com. The term price is up about 12% this year, and spot uranium is near $90, up about 11%.
The companies that mine it and the start-ups that want to burn it have moved the other way. That split is the story, and it tells you who is actually setting the price.
The stocks, measured against their own range
Prices from the Nasdaq quote service just before 2 p.m. Eastern on Thursday:
| Stock | Price | Today | Below 52-week high | Above 52-week low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameco (CCJ) | $85.33 | -1.5% | 37% | 10% |
| Oklo (OKLO) | $36.37 | -1.8% | 81% | 6% |
| NuScale (SMR) | $7.95 | +0.6% | 86% | 10% |
| Global X Uranium ETF (URA) | $39.46 | -1.0% | ||
| VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR) | $102.50 | -0.9% |
Cameco is the cleanest test. It sells uranium, the price of what it sells is at a record, and its shares are closer to their 52-week low of $77.70 than to their high of $135.24. A stock that tracked its product would not look like that.
Why the record is thinner than it looks
Three details in TD Cowen's notes, as summarized by OilPrice, explain the gap.
- Utilities are not buying much at this price. TD's analysts said utilities "are feeling a sticker shock on pricing and seem reluctant to contract in any meaningful way." Term contracting reached 42.2 million pounds by September 15, about 3% behind last year's pace, and the bank said 2026 is tracking at the bottom of the past five years. A record set on thin volume is a record that fewer buyers have agreed to.
- Spot is below term, not above it. Spot trades at roughly a $6 discount to the long-term price. In the 2023-24 squeeze it traded at a premium of more than $30. Buyers are paying up for supply years out, but nobody is scrambling for near-term delivery.
- It is only a record in nominal dollars. TD put the 2007 peak of $95 at roughly $150 in today's money, so in real terms uranium is still well short of its last high.
What is hitting the stocks
The equity side is trading on rates and on doubts about the AI power trade more than on the fuel. A Goldman Sachs sector specialist, quoted in the same report, said investor interest in nuclear had been "extremely light," reflecting "the current tape (rates, inflation, broader AI concerns)," and that the focus has moved to "time to power," meaning gas turbines, fuel cells and batteries that can be installed sooner. The report also noted that Holtec pulled its planned IPO last week.
The rates part is concrete. Reactor developers like Oklo and NuScale are years from revenue on most projects, so their value rests on cash flows far in the future, and those get discounted harder when the 10-year Treasury yield is near its highest level since 2002, as it was on Thursday. Our story on Constellation's Amazon deal shows the other side: an operator with reactors already running gained on the same day.
What would close the gap is the thing TD is waiting for: utilities signing term contracts in volume. Last year, much of that buying landed in November and December, according to the report, so the next two months of contracting data matter more than the price headline.
Sources: OilPrice.com, citing TD Cowen, UxC and Goldman Sachs; Nasdaq. Percentages from 52-week ranges are Chronicle arithmetic. This is market information, not investment advice.
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