Before the bell: Nasdaq futures fall 1% as the 10-year yield tops 5.1%, jobless claims due

U.S. stock futures fell early Thursday as Treasury yields kept climbing. Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1%, S&P 500 futures lost 0.6% and Dow futures were off 215 points, or 0.4%, CNBC reported. On Wednesday the S&P 500 fell 0.75% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.1% (our close). Live levels: markets board.

Yields: the number behind the headline

The 10-year Treasury yield traded as high as 5.15% this morning, its highest since July 2007, and the 30-year touched about 5.44%, a level last seen in 2004, per CNBC. The official Wednesday close tells the story more sharply: the 10-year finished at 5.11%, up from 4.96% on Tuesday, and that 15-basis-point gain was the largest one-day rise of the year in Treasury's daily data. The 10-year started 2026 at 4.19%. The 2-year closed at 4.85%, up 14 basis points in a day.

The trigger was Wednesday's S&P Global flash PMIs, with services at 58.7, the highest in almost five years, and manufacturing at 56.7. Fed Governor Michael Barr said "further policy adjustments" are likely, and New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday in London that expecting another hike by year-end is "reasonable." CME FedWatch now puts the odds of an October hike above 75%, up from roughly 49% a week ago, CNBC reported. Brent crude rose about 2.8% to $105.95 a barrel and WTI 2.2% to $94.40. Japan's 10-year yield hit its highest since 1996. Charts: 10-year T-note, crude oil.

Who it hits

Freddie Mac publishes its weekly mortgage rate today; last week's 30-year average was 6.95%. On a $400,000 loan that is $2,648 a month in principal and interest, and every 5 basis points adds about $13 (our calculation). For business owners with a prime-based credit line, the 2-year is the one to watch: it prices the Fed, and a quarter-point hike on a $250,000 drawn balance adds about $625 a year in interest.

On the calendar

Initial jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m., with 201,000 expected after 196,000, followed by August new home sales. BlackBerry reports this morning. Costco reports after the close, with analysts polled by FactSet expecting $6.53 a share on $94.86 billion of revenue, per CNBC. See our calendar.

Movers

• Darden: $205.00 premarket, down 4.1%. Adjusted earnings of $2.05 a share matched estimates, but revenue of $3.2 billion came in $10 million short, Seeking Alpha reported, and Investing.com also said revenue missed.
• TD SYNNEX: $277.95 premarket, down 3.5%, even after adjusted earnings of $5.68 a share topped estimates by 98 cents on revenue of $21.56 billion, per Seeking Alpha.
• Eli Lilly: $1,153.89 premarket, up 0.3%, after the FDA approved Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin for adults with type 2 diabetes, Investing.com reported and Lilly confirmed in a release.
• Bitcoin: $83,566 on Coinbase at 7:16 a.m., down 2.4% from its 24-hour open, with Ether at $2,648, down 2.9%.

Sources: CNBC, U.S. Treasury, Freddie Mac, Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Eli Lilly, Nasdaq premarket quotes and Coinbase Exchange at about 7:16 a.m. ET, Chronicle economic calendar. Payment figures are our calculations on a 30-year fixed loan. Premarket prices move quickly and early volume is thin. This is market information, not investment advice.