Diamondbacks vs Rockies: Arizona wins 12-8, and its wild-card hopes come down to three games in San Diego

The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Colorado Rockies 12-8 on Thursday afternoon at Coors Field. Arizona scored six runs in the first inning and led 12-2 after six, then Colorado scored six runs in the last two innings against the Arizona bullpen, according to the official MLB box score. The win keeps Arizona alive in the National League wild-card race, but only just.

How the game went

The Diamondbacks had 18 hits. Gabriel Moreno and Nolan Arenado each homered and drove in three runs, and James McCann added a home run and two RBIs. Geraldo Perdomo had three hits, including a triple, and scored three times. Lars Nootbaar also had three hits.

Eduardo Rodriguez got the win with six innings, allowing two runs on nine hits with no walks and three strikeouts. The late innings were less tidy: Dennis Santana gave up four runs in the seventh and Taylor Clarke two in the eighth before Kevin Ginkel struck out three in a clean ninth. Rockies starter Tanner Gordon took the loss after allowing 10 runs on 12 hits in 3 1/3 innings. Cole Carrigg had four hits and three RBIs for Colorado, which fell to 57-102.

It was Arizona's second straight win in Denver after a 5-3 victory on Wednesday.

The wild-card standings after Thursday

The Cubs clinched a postseason berth on Thursday, MLB.com reported. Here is where the four remaining contenders for the three NL wild-card spots stand, from MLB's official standings as of Thursday evening:

Arizona sits 2.5 games behind Philadelphia for the final spot, and MLB lists its wild-card elimination number at 2. The Phillies were playing Milwaukee at home Thursday night when this was written.

What Arizona actually needs

The arithmetic is short. With three games left, Arizona can finish no better than 88-74. San Diego already has 88 wins and the Phillies have 87. So Arizona needs to sweep the Padres this weekend and needs Philadelphia to stumble against Tampa Bay at the same time. A single Padres win or a single Arizona loss this weekend puts San Diego out of Arizona's reach.

FanGraphs put Arizona's postseason odds at 7.9% as of Thursday afternoon, MLB.com reported.

The betting market says something similar. Our odds board has San Diego priced between -132 and -135 for Friday's opener, with Arizona at +112 to +122. At +122, the implied chance of an Arizona win is about 45%. If all three games were priced like Friday's, a sweep would come in roughly once in ten tries, before counting whatever Arizona needs from the Phillies. That is simple arithmetic on the posted lines, not a forecast.

If the race ends in a tie

The other three contenders could still finish in any order, and MLB.com has worked through a possible three-way tie among the Cubs, Padres and Phillies. The Cubs went 5-1 against San Diego and 6-1 against Philadelphia, so they would take the top wild-card seed and home field in the Wild Card Series. The Phillies went 6-0 against the Padres, so they would win the tiebreaker for the next spot, according to MLB.com's explainer.

What to watch

Padres at Dodgers, 10:10 PM ET Thursday: Nick Pivetta starts for San Diego against Tyler Glasnow. A Padres win there ends Arizona's hopes of catching San Diego before the teams even meet. The Diamondbacks-Padres series opens Friday at 9:40 PM ET in San Diego.

Follow the results on our MLB scoreboard and the weekend's games on the MLB schedule. Our earlier story on the Dodgers' 7-0 win over San Diego on Tuesday is here.

Sources: MLB Stats API box score, MLB Stats API schedule and NL wild-card standings, MLB.com, Chronicle odds board (sportsbook lines as of 6:40 PM ET Thursday). Betting lines are information, not advice.