Before the bell: futures flat, WTI up 1.3% to $93 as the "energy ceasefire" shrinks to refineries

U.S. stock futures were flat to slightly lower early Monday while oil pushed higher, as the weekend's "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine turned out to be much narrower than the announcement. At 7:06 a.m. ET, December E-mini S&P 500 futures were at 7,860.50, up 0.01% from Friday's settlement of 7,859.75, on Yahoo Finance quotes. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.24% and Dow futures up 0.04%. Stocks trade today; the bond market does not.

Contract	Friday settlement	7:06 a.m. ET	Change
E-mini S&P 500 (Dec)	7,859.75	7,860.50	+0.01%
E-mini Nasdaq 100 (Dec)	31,108.75	31,032.75	-0.24%
E-mini Dow (Dec)	51,926	51,948	+0.04%
WTI crude (Nov)	$91.85	$93.03	+1.28%
Gold (Dec)	$4,216.30	$4,197.80	-0.44%

Quotes from Yahoo Finance, taken at 7:06 a.m. ET; they move quickly in thin premarket trade. Our markets board shows spot-based levels that differ slightly from futures.

The ceasefire is smaller than the headline

President Trump wrote on Sunday that an energy ceasefire was "effective immediately" and that both sides had agreed. OilPrice.com, citing an Axios report, said a White House official described it as "refinery for refinery": both sides stop hitting each other's oil refineries, with a broader deal on power plants and grids possible later. The same official said Russia was still considering it. That matters to Ukraine in a lopsided way: OilPrice noted it has one refinery, repeatedly attacked and not fully working, while Russia runs a large network that Ukrainian drones have been targeting.

Oil dipped about 1.5% early, then reversed. CNBC had Brent at $105.68 and WTI at $92.72 after both had been down about 1.5%. The supports are in the Gulf: two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, and UOB told clients, per CNBC, that Hurricane Isaias, a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, is forcing offshore producers to curtail output.

The diesel arithmetic nobody has done

The Russian diesel deal is the other half of the story. CNBC reported the schedule: 300,000 metric tons immediately, 500,000 in November, 1 million after that. Former IEA oil chief Neil Atkinson put the first tranche at about 70,000 barrels a day over a month. Against U.S. diesel use of 3.7 million barrels a day that is about 1.9%; against world use of 29 million it is about 0.24% (our division of his figures). AAA's record national diesel average was $6.5276 a gallon in late September, per CNBC. A rounding error in supply is unlikely to move that on its own.

Rates: closed today, 5.24% on Friday

Columbus Day is on the SIFMA holiday schedule, so there is no Treasury trading and no new yield print today. The latest official figures are Friday's: 10-year 5.24%, 2-year 4.80%, 30-year 5.60%, per the U.S. Treasury. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate was 7.40% on Thursday against 7.28% the week before (Freddie Mac). On a $400,000 loan that 0.12 point adds about $33 a month in principal and interest, $2,770 against $2,737 (our calculation).

Week ahead, in order

• Tuesday: existing home sales, forecast 3.96 million against 3.98 million. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report before the open, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Wednesday, CNBC reported (see Sunday's Nightcap).
• Wednesday: September CPI: forecast 0.6% on the month (0.4% prior) and 3.7% on the year (3.4% prior); core 0.2% and 2.5%.
• Thursday: retail sales, forecast 0.3% after 1.2%, and jobless claims, forecast 200,000 after 197,000.
• October 28: the Fed's next rate decision. Fed funds is 3.88% on our board.

Forecasts are from the Chronicle economic calendar.

Crypto

Bitcoin was $83,325 on Coinbase at 7:20 a.m., up 0.3% from its 24-hour open of $83,074; Ether was $2,549, up 1.8%. CoinDesk reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $681 million last week, the biggest weekly outflow since June, per SoSoValue, most of it Wednesday and Thursday. Analysts it quoted named $82,000 as support and Wednesday's CPI as the next catalyst.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, OilPrice.com (citing Axios), CoinDesk, U.S. Treasury, SIFMA, Freddie Mac, Coinbase Exchange, Chronicle economic calendar. Payment and share-of-supply figures are our calculations. This is market information, not investment advice.