Before the bell: futures edge up as Warsh gives no October signal, with the 10-year at 5.10%
Dow futures are up about 0.5% and S&P 500 futures 0.3% at 6:31 AM ET after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to say what the Fed will do on October 28. Nothing on the economic calendar is scheduled for Friday.
Futures are modestly higher before the open after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking in Bangkok at the IMF and World Bank meetings, declined to signal what the Fed will do at its October 27-28 meeting. "I don't prejudge meetings," he said, per CNBC, adding that the Fed is "not in that business anymore" when it comes to forward guidance.
Futures at 6:31 AM ET
| Instrument | Level | Move vs Thursday cash close |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,765.6 | +0.28% (close 7,744.06) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,946.3 | +0.04% (close 29,935.59) |
| Dow futures | 52,421.0 | +0.47% (close 52,177.69) |
| WTI crude | $97.94 | -0.44% on the board |
| Gold | $4,183.68 | +0.31% on the board |
| Bitcoin | $81,986 | +1.30% over 24 hours |
Futures, oil and gold from the Chronicle markets board, captured 6:31 AM ET; cash closes from our Thursday close story. The board quotes continuous contracts, so small gaps to cash are not signals. Bitcoin from Coinbase.
The Fed: a pause is priced, December is the question
The Fed raised rates to a range of 3.75% to 4% last month, its first hike since 2023, according to CNBC. Traders see a 72.3% chance of no change on October 28, per CME FedWatch as cited there, with a majority expecting a 25 basis point hike in December. Goldman Sachs economists wrote that Warsh's comments indicate the FOMC is "set to pause in October" and that they still expect a second and final hike in December.
Warsh also described a "synchronous tightening" by central banks worldwide, saying "there's no free riders," and said artificial intelligence could make economies more productive but that the road would be "very bumpy."
Rates and the dollar
The Treasury's par yield curve had the 10-year at 5.10% on Thursday, down from 5.19% Wednesday, and the 2-year at 4.77%, down from 4.82%. The 30-year was 5.43%. The dollar index is 101.27, down 0.36% on the board. The latest Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate is 7.40%, unchanged; see our explainer for buyers and sellers.
Energy remains the swing factor
Oil is steady near $98 for WTI, but OilPrice.com's headlines show a market still rattled: Trump condemned Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries as a "disgrace", and the site said oil was heading for a weekly gain on Hormuz attacks. For the supply response, see our report on the IEA's accelerated stock release.
What to watch today
Our economic calendar shows no scheduled U.S. data for Friday. Next up are building permits on October 20 (forecast 1.4 million), jobless claims October 22, flash PMIs October 23 and the Fed decision October 28. With no data to anchor the session, Fed speakers and oil headlines are likely to set the tone.
Sources: Chronicle markets board, U.S. Treasury, CNBC, CME FedWatch (via CNBC), Goldman Sachs (via CNBC), OilPrice.com, Freddie Mac, Coinbase. Quotes may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.
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