Before the bell: Dow futures lead a bounce as oil falls 2% and Fed week begins with the 10-year at 5%

Stock futures are higher at 6:31 AM ET as traders try to recover from a week in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both lost ground, and oil has backed off after Friday's surge. CNBC reported that on Friday the Dow fell more than 650 points and the S&P 500 lost 0.5%, as higher oil prices and a broad sell-off hit most sectors. The week ahead is dominated by central banks: the Fed decides on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, per CNBC.

Where futures trade versus Friday's settle

Front-month futures from Yahoo Finance, read at 6:31 AM ET; percentages are our arithmetic. Premarket volume is thin, and CNBC's own 5:49 AM figures (S&P futures up 0.3%, Dow up 0.51%, Nasdaq-100 up 0.22%) differ slightly because the market kept moving.

Oil: lower, but still above $100

CNBC put Brent down 2.2% at $114.52 and WTI down 2.24% at $101.03 in Asian hours. It said Brent hit its highest level since April on Friday after reports that the U.S. and Israel could be planning strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. President Trump said on Sunday there would be no strike "today," as we noted in our Sunday Nightcap; we cannot say that is why oil is lower this morning. For context, WTI was $97.15 on Wednesday and $103.27 on Friday, so Monday's dip gives back only part of the week's climb.

The energy squeeze is reaching Europe. OilPrice.com reports European natural gas at a four-year high on winter supply fears. Crude above $100 and gas at multi-year highs both feed into transport and heating costs for businesses heading into winter.

Rates: the 10-year sits at 5% before the Fed

The Treasury's daily curve shows the 10-year yield at 5.00% on Friday, Oct. 23, after 4.96% on Thursday and 5.13% on Wednesday. The 2-year was 4.69% and the 30-year 5.33% on Friday. See the Treasury's data. Our calendar lists the Fed's Wednesday decision with a forecast of 3.875% for the funds rate, matching the current 3.88%, which would mean no change. We did not find a primary-source estimate of the odds, so we do not quote one. The 30-year mortgage rate on our board is 7.32%.

Outside the U.S., CNBC says France's 10-year yield touched 5% last week for the first time since 2002, and that Moody's decision to keep France at Aa3 with a negative outlook gave bonds a reprieve.

Brazil: the surprise result

CNBC reports Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won a fourth term with 51.8% of valid votes to Flavio Bolsonaro's 48.2%, according to the Superior Electoral Court. Bolsonaro has not conceded and said he would seek to annul the result, per Reuters as cited by CNBC. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) "plunged nearly 20%" in overnight trading, CNBC says. Watch how much of that holds once U.S. hours begin, since overnight trading in a single ETF is thin.

Crypto and the calendar

Bitcoin is $80,326 and Ether $2,329 on Coinbase at 6:31 AM ET, each up about 0.2% over 24 hours. Our economic calendar shows no major U.S. data release today. The next scheduled items are the Fed decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28, jobless claims on Thursday and the October jobs report on Nov. 6.

Sources: Yahoo Finance; CNBC; OilPrice.com; U.S. Treasury; Coinbase; Chronicle markets board and calendar. This is market information, not investment advice.