Before the bell: futures slip from record, Fed minutes due, mortgage rate hits 7.49%

U.S. stock futures pointed lower early Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.93, up 0.58% (our Tuesday wrap). At about 7:20 a.m. ET, December S&P 500 futures were at 7,848.25, down 0.33% from Tuesday's settlement, on Yahoo Finance quotes. Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.73%, Dow futures down 0.55% and Russell 2000 futures down 0.68%. Live levels: markets board.

Yields, oil, gold and the dollar

The Treasury's official close on Tuesday was 5.27% for the 10-year, 4.79% for the 2-year and 5.64% for the 30-year, according to Treasury data. CoinDesk, citing Bloomberg, said the 10-year had climbed back above 5.3% this morning and that renewed Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz had pushed Brent above $101. Yahoo Finance showed Brent at $101.76, up 1.2% from Tuesday's settlement, and WTI at $89.92, up 0.5%. Gold futures were at $4,145, down 1.0%, and the dollar index was at 102.31, up 0.5%. Charts: 10-year T-note, crude oil, gold.

The Fed minutes

The Fed's FOMC calendar lists a September 15-16 meeting, and the minutes of a meeting come out three weeks later. With the next meeting set for October 27-28, today's minutes are the last detailed look at the committee's thinking before it. CoinDesk quoted a BTC Markets analyst saying a hawkish read could lift yields and the dollar and keep risk assets under pressure. We have not seen the document yet. Read it against the funds rate on our board: it is at 3.88%, while the 2-year yield is 4.79%, so the bond market is pricing a path above where policy sits.

What borrowers are already paying

The Mortgage Bankers Association's 30-year contract rate rose to 7.49% last week from 7.30%, with total applications down 4.2%, CNBC reported. Refinancing fell 8% and was 56% below a year ago; purchase applications fell 2% and were 15% lower than a year ago. On a $400,000 30-year loan, that one-week move adds about $52 a month to principal and interest ($2,794 against $2,742, our calculation). Adjustable-rate loans were 10.3% of applications. CNBC also noted a separate Mortgage News Daily survey that showed rates easing slightly this week to 7.56% for the average lender.

On the calendar

Our economic calendar shows no major U.S. data release today. Thursday brings weekly jobless claims, forecast at 200,000 against 197,000 previously, and September CPI follows on October 14 (consensus not yet on our board).

Crypto

Bitcoin was $83,781 on Coinbase, down about 2.8% from its 24-hour open of $86,236, and Ether was $2,582, down about 4.9% from $2,714. CoinDesk reported about $550 million in liquidations, mostly traders betting on higher prices, and quoted one analyst calling it a leverage flush rather than a downward trend. That is one analyst's read, not a forecast.

Sources: U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, CNBC, CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, Coinbase Exchange, Chronicle markets board. Payment figures are our calculations. Premarket prices move quickly and early volume is thin. This is market information, not investment advice.