Bitcoin's October record: up 10 of 15 years, average gain 14.4%, not the 26% going around

Weekend talk in crypto media leans on a seasonal line: Bitcoin usually rises in October, a claim usually quoted as 11 up Octobers in 16 years and an average gain of 26%. We checked it against price history. The first half holds up. The second half does not.

Using daily closes from Bitstamp's public API, which start in August 2011, we measured each October as the change from the last September close to the last October close (UTC). Over 15 completed Octobers, 2011 through 2025, Bitcoin rose in 10 and fell in 5. That is 67%. The average October return was +14.4% and the median was +10.9%. We could not reproduce an average of 26% from this data.

Every October since 2011

Year	Sept close	Oct close	October change
2011	$4.82	$3.30	-31.5%
2012	$12.22	$11.00	-10.0%
2013	$126.25	$203.54	+61.2%
2014	$391.09	$337.99	-13.6%
2015	$236.20	$310.18	+31.3%
2016	$608.23	$697.01	+14.6%
2017	$4,326	$6,434	+48.7%
2018	$6,598	$6,303	-4.5%
2019	$8,298	$9,150	+10.3%
2020	$10,778	$13,816	+28.2%
2021	$43,834	$61,359	+40.0%
2022	$19,425	$20,498	+5.5%
2023	$26,966	$34,661	+28.5%
2024	$63,302	$70,231	+10.9%
2025	$114,065	$109,554	-4.0%

What the table says, and what it does not

Two features matter more than the headline average. First, the early years were tiny and violent: a Bitcoin under $5 in 2011 and under $400 in 2014 makes percentage swings that a much larger asset is unlikely to repeat. Second, the recent record is milder. Since 2022 Bitcoin gained 5.5%, 28.5% and 10.9% in three Octobers and lost 4.0% in 2025. Fifteen data points cannot establish a calendar effect, and the table's best years (2013, 2017, 2021) are the ones that lift the mean well above the median.

October 2026 so far is on the weak side. Bitcoin closed September at about $83,563 on Bitstamp and traded near $81,040 on Coinbase on Sunday afternoon, a decline of about 3.0% month to date. With two weeks left, a finish in the green would need a gain of about 3% from here. Last October also ended lower.

Where price sits against the 50-week average

Traders also watch the 50-week moving average on weekend closes. Averaging the last 50 weekly closes, we get roughly $76,500 on both Bitstamp daily data (sampled every seven days, $76,526) and Binance.US weekly candles ($76,565). Bitcoin at about $81,040 is therefore around 6% above it, and a drop to that average would mean a decline of about 5.6%. Bitcoin has traded in a narrow band: Coinbase shows a 24-hour range of $80,700 to $82,184.

A move toward the average would not, by itself, say anything about direction after that. We have not tested how Bitcoin behaves around this level and we are not forecasting one. The point is only the distance: about $4,500 separates today's price from the line many chart watchers use.

The takeaway

October has been a better-than-even month for Bitcoin, up two years in three, with a typical gain closer to 11% than 26%. It is also lower in last year's October and, so far, this one. Treat seasonality as context, not a signal. For live levels see crypto prices and our crypto coverage.

Sources: Bitstamp public OHLC API, daily closes through October 18, 2026 (Chronicle calculation; October change measured from last September close to last October close, UTC; 2026 is month to date); Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD 24-hour stats; Binance.US weekly klines for the 50-week cross-check. Past performance does not predict future results. Information, not investment advice.