California braces for 35-foot surf, up to 20 inches of Tahoe snow and the first Bay Area soaking

A run of Pacific storms is lining up on California, and the National Weather Service (NWS) has already posted warnings. The headline hazard is the ocean: a High Surf Warning for the San Francisco Peninsula coast, the coastal North Bay and Northern Monterey Bay runs from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM Sunday, with breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet and occasional sets of 40 to 50 feet at favored breakpoints, according to the alert text.

What the National Weather Service says, by region

Bay Area rain, Friday. The NWS office in San Francisco says a cold front arrives Friday after a dry, warm Thursday. Rain increases between 8 AM and 1 PM across the North Bay, 10 AM to 3 PM across the Bay Area and South Bay, and 12 PM to 5 PM on the north Central Coast. Forecast totals from Friday through Saturday afternoon are 0.5 to 1.25 inches for the North Bay, 0.3 to 0.8 inches for the San Francisco Bay Area and Monterey Bay region, and up to 1.25 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Gusts could reach or exceed 45 mph just ahead of the front, and forecasters put the chance of thunderstorms at about 15%. They note that stronger gusts can bring down trees and branches and cause isolated power outages.

Tahoe and the Sierra. The NWS Reno office has a Winter Storm Warning for the Greater Lake Tahoe area from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM Saturday: heavy, wet snow of up to 6 inches below 7,000 feet, near 12 inches above 7,000 feet and up to 20 inches along the crest west of the lake. Ridge gusts of 70 to 90 mph and gusts of 45 to 55 mph in Truckee and Lake Tahoe communities are forecast. Snow levels could fall as low as 5,500 feet, and the NWS says a burst of heavy snow late Friday afternoon and evening could hit the Friday commute.

Central Coast. Farther south, the NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard office has a Coastal Flood Warning for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara County Central Coast beaches from 3 AM to 6 PM Saturday, with a High Surf Warning for breaking waves of 18 to 25 feet. It names Oceano Dunes as a spot where widespread flooding is likely and says the Cayucos and Pismo Beach piers may be affected.

Two flood problems, not one

This is easy to misread as one storm. The Bay shoreline faces tidal flooding first: the NWS says high astronomical tides plus warm water have produced a Coastal Flood Advisory for the San Francisco, San Pablo and Monterey Bay shorelines. At the San Francisco tide gauge, Friday's high tide is forecast at 12:49 PM at 7.3 feet above the MLLW datum, 1.5 feet above normal, including up to 1.8 feet of storm surge. Up to 1.5 feet of water above ground is possible in low-lying areas.

The second problem arrives Saturday on the open coast. The NWS explains that wave run-up raises the mean water level by roughly 10 to 20% of the breaking wave height, so very large waves can crash over seawalls and onto roads and buildings at high tide. A separate Coastal Flood Advisory covers the Pacific coast from midnight Friday night to 6 PM Saturday.

The NWS says the risk of drowning is "very high" this weekend, that waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, and that people should stay out of the water, off jetties, piers and rocks, and never turn their backs on the ocean.

What comes next

The forecasters say the "storm door remains open." Another system is expected Sunday into Monday and a third in the middle of next week. They say rainfall amounts for those do not currently look much greater than Friday's, and because the systems are not expected to stall over one area, the potential for widespread flooding is reduced. Wave heights ease somewhat on Sunday before another round of very high swell arrives Monday.

What it means in practice

• Drivers: Allow extra time on Friday. The NWS says some low-lying roads near the Bay and coast may close, and not to drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Carry chains, food, water and a flashlight if you cross the Sierra, and check road conditions by calling 511.
• Coastal and shoreline businesses: Restaurants, shops and rental properties near the water should look at stock and equipment that sit at ground level before Friday's midday high tide and Saturday's surf. Photograph the premises now, and ask your insurer or agent what your policy says about flood, wave and wind damage before the weekend, not after.
• Beachgoers and surfers: The warning period is Friday 6 PM through early Sunday. The NWS singles out Saturday morning as the peak of the swell.
• Power: Isolated outages are possible from Friday's gusts. Charge phones and have a plan for refrigerated stock.

For live conditions, watch the NWS pages for San Francisco Bay Area, Reno (Tahoe) and Los Angeles/Oxnard. Warnings can be extended or upgraded as the storm develops. Our earlier weather coverage is in US news.

Sources: National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area Area Forecast Discussion issued 11:45 AM PST Thursday, November 12, 2026; NWS active alerts for California via api.weather.gov, read the afternoon of November 12. Forecasts change; check the NWS for the latest. This is general information, not insurance or safety advice.