China's trade surplus passes $1.04 trillion in 10 months as October exports jump 35%

China's goods trade surplus has passed $1 trillion for the second year running. Customs data released Tuesday show a surplus of about $1.04 trillion for January through October, according to CNBC and the Associated Press. The record for a full year is $1.2 trillion, set in 2025, and 2026 is on track to exceed it.

The October numbers

• Exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier, above the 33.5% forecast in a Reuters poll cited by CNBC. September was up 36.3%.
• Imports rose 41.6%, well above the 32% forecast. CNBC reports high-tech imports up 72% by value, with crude oil, LNG and coal also sharply higher.
• The October surplus was $105.3 billion, down from $133.5 billion in September, per the AP, because imports grew faster than exports.

That is the number behind the headline. The 10-month total is a record pace, but the monthly surplus narrowed, and CNBC notes surplus growth slowed to a six-month low. ING's Lynn Song said China remains well on pace for a new record by year-end despite a miss in October.

What China is selling

The AP reports semiconductor exports jumped 137.1% by value in October and auto exports rose 37.6%. Moody's Analytics economist Dave Chia expects exports to stay strong for the rest of the year, led by electronics and autos, but warned that an AI slowdown would hurt, since lower chip and electronics prices and smaller shipping volumes would hit China's exports hard. The EIU's Tianchen Xu told CNBC that imports were still dominated by AI trade.

Where the goods go

US-bound shipments are rising from a low base, after last year's tariffs cut China-US trade, and CNBC puts them up 12.1% year to date. The AP notes Chinese figures often differ from those reported by trading partners, and the two outlets differ by a tenth of a point on EU export growth.

Calls to rebalance

Beijing says it is not seeking a bigger surplus and wants more balanced trade. Natixis economist Alicia García-Herrero told the AP the export pattern "is not sustainable," pointing to overcapacity, excess savings and weak domestic demand. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations said Europe is a long way from a coherent trade and industrial policy on autos. Citi's Yuanliu Hu sees export growth slowing to about 8% in 2027, per CNBC.

What it means for businesses and traders

For importers and manufacturers in the US and Europe, the figures point to continued price pressure from Chinese goods in electronics and cars. For traders, the print is a read on global AI hardware demand as much as on China. The data lands as the two countries work through a trade truce; see our reports on the extension to January 10 and the US September trade deficit. Track the broader picture on our markets page.

Sources: CNBC; Associated Press (KSAT), both reporting China customs data. This is market information, not investment advice.