US and China hold first trade council meeting, but no deal on the $60 billion tariff cut

China and the United States held the first meeting of their new trade council on Friday and discussed tariffs, a reciprocal "$30 billion-for-$30 billion" tariff-cut arrangement and farm trade, China's Commerce Ministry said on Saturday, as CNBC reported from Reuters. Bloomberg also reported the meeting. The ministry called the exchanges "candid, in-depth and constructive" and did not say whether any agreement was reached.

What is still unsettled

After the September Xi-Trump summit in Washington, the two sides proposed a $60 billion package of reciprocal tariff cuts, including about $17 billion of US farm goods China imported in 2024. CNBC says the plan has not been finalised. Beijing has repeatedly said the deal is a prerequisite for buying more US farm goods.

The purchases are the weak spot. A Reuters analysis of Chinese customs data, cited by CNBC, found Chinese buying of US farm goods other than soybeans is on track for a seven-year low this year, despite a pledge to buy $17 billion a year through 2028. Soybeans are the exception. Our own chart shows soybean futures at 1,243 cents a bushel on Friday's close, 6.4% below the Sept. 21 high.

Who it hits

• Grain and oilseed farmers selling anything other than soybeans: corn, sorghum, wheat, pork and dairy buyers have little purchase evidence to lean on yet.
• Importers of Chinese goods pay the same tariffs on Monday as on Friday. China's own 24% tariff on US goods stays suspended only until January 10, as we reported on Nov. 9, and a 10% tariff remains.
• Exporters planning 2027 contracts are pricing against that January date, so the realistic read is to wait for Thursday before locking terms.

What to watch Thursday

The White House says President Trump will meet Xi on the sidelines of the APEC forum in Shenzhen on Thursday, the same day as the three-way session with Vladimir Putin we covered Friday. The tell for trade is simple: a published list of products and dates. Our earlier report on the Board of Trade shows how often "agreement" has arrived without either. Until a list appears, nothing at the border has changed.

Sources: CNBC (Reuters), Bloomberg, China's Commerce Ministry as quoted by CNBC; soybean futures via Yahoo Finance. This is market information, not investment advice.