Cracker Barrel jumps 7% on a 3% to 5% sales outlook, but tariff refunds made up $9.1 million of its profit

Cracker Barrel (CBRL) shares were up 7.1% at $48.69 in pre-market trading on Wednesday, from a $45.48 close, according to Nasdaq data, after the restaurant and retail chain reported fourth-quarter results and forecast a return to sales growth in its new fiscal year. The Wall Street Journal headlined the report as profit gains with guidance for sales growth.

For the quarter ended July 31, revenue fell 2.2% to $849.3 million, according to the company's release filed with the SEC. Comparable restaurant sales fell 2.1%, while comparable retail sales rose 0.7%. Adjusted earnings were 99 cents a share, up from 74 cents, and GAAP earnings were 54 cents, up from 30 cents.

The number behind the profit gain

Adjusted EBITDA rose to $62.1 million from $55.7 million. The release says that figure "includes a benefit of approximately $9.1 million related to tariff refunds, net of investments." Take the refunds out and adjusted EBITDA would have been about $53.0 million, roughly 5% below a year ago. That is our arithmetic from the company's own numbers.

Cracker Barrel is one of several companies this month whose quarter got a lift from tariff refunds, though its release does not say which tariffs the money relates to. We saw the same thing at Worthington Enterprises, and the Atlanta Fed's survey found 70% of firms getting refunds plan to keep some of the money as cash. A refund is a one-time item. It will not repeat in next year's comparison.

The outlook asks for a big swing

Going from a 2.1% decline in comparable restaurant sales last quarter to 3% to 5% growth for the year is a swing of 5 to 7 points. The EBITDA range compares with $147.7 million for fiscal 2026, when full-year revenue fell to $3.32 billion from $3.48 billion. New Chief Executive David Deno, who took over on August 10, pointed to "continued improvements in the underlying traffic trend" in the release.

Who it hits

For an independent restaurant owner, the most useful lines here are the cost assumptions. A chain with more than 650 locations in 43 states is planning on about 3% commodity inflation and 2.5% to 3% hourly wage inflation for the year ahead. Those are one large buyer's estimates, not a forecast for every kitchen, but they are a reasonable benchmark to check a budget against. On a restaurant spending $30,000 a month on food and $40,000 on hourly labor, those rates add roughly $900 and $1,000 to $1,200 a month.

A cleaner balance sheet

Total debt fell to $337.2 million from $484.6 million a year earlier, with nothing drawn on its credit line, after the company repaid $150 million of convertible notes in June and sold and leased back 26 of its stores for about $77 million. It also sold the Maple Street Biscuit Company chain on July 20. The board declared a quarterly dividend of 25 cents a share, payable November 12.

Sources: Cracker Barrel Q4 fiscal 2026 release (SEC), Nasdaq quote data, WSJ. Pre-market prices can change sharply at the open. This is market information, not investment advice.