Cubs look set to sit out the Tarik Skubal bidding, leaving the Dodgers and Mets as the front-runners

The Chicago Cubs are unlikely to chase Tarik Skubal, the best free agent on the market. MLB.com and CBS Sports both pass along reporting from The Athletic (subscription required) that the Cubs "appear unlikely to enter the bidding war" and are "expected to stay on the sidelines" once the bidding gets serious. That cuts against ESPN's Jeff Passan, who reported earlier in the offseason that the Cubs "badly want" the left-hander. The two reports are not reconciled yet, so treat Chicago as unlikely, not ruled out.

Why it matters: the rotation is empty

Chicago needs pitching more than almost anyone. According to MLB.com, all five starters in its end-of-season rotation are now free agents: Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman. The Athletic's reporting, as relayed by MLB.com, is that the Cubs will still check in on every other free-agent pitcher, just not on Skubal. CBS Sports frames it as a disappointment for fans waiting for the Ricketts family to spend at big-market levels.

The money: records on the table

Skubal is 29 and a two-time Cy Young Award winner. MLB.com says he could set records for both the largest guaranteed pitcher contract and the highest average annual value. The marks to beat are below.

Our arithmetic, not a reported figure: Tucker's deal works out to $60 million a year. A pitcher matching the $43.33 million record over 12 years would cross $520 million. Whether Skubal's camp wants length or a Tucker-style short deal is not reported.

That matters for the Dodgers, who sent three prospects to Detroit to get Skubal at the trade deadline. The Athletic's Katie Woo reports, per MLB.com, that Los Angeles would be unlikely to go beyond Yamamoto's 12 years, though a Tucker-style structure remains possible. The Mets are the other obvious fit because of their rotation needs and budget, per The Athletic via MLB.com. On November 3, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel also said the Yankees are "thinking about" a push and listed the Padres, Angels and White Sox as possible sleepers with new ownership behind them.

The calendar: a lockout is coming

CBS Sports describes an owner-implemented lockout on December 2 as a near certainty amid collective bargaining talks. The GM Meetings run November 10 to 12 in Las Vegas, and MLB Network reports notable transactions could happen there. CBS notes that without a quick resolution there probably will not be December Winter Meetings, so the next few weeks may carry more of the offseason's business than usual.

Elsewhere in the rumor mill

• Phillies: NBC Sports Philadelphia's Jim Salisbury reports Philadelphia is interested in free agent Ha-Seong Kim as shortstop insurance. MLB.com says the Phillies have no obvious Trea Turner replacement at the position, and that Turner is reportedly available, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale. MLB.com notes he has seven years and roughly $190 million left and a full no-trade clause.
• Cardinals: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports St. Louis may want reliever JoJo Romero back, per CBS Sports. He had a 3.36 ERA over 55 appearances this year after the Cardinals traded him to Milwaukee before the deadline.
• Braves: MLB Network's Jon Paul Morosi reports Atlanta will not engage on trades for Ronald Acuña Jr., per MLB.com.
• Rangers: Jon Heyman reports Texas will consider trading Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, per MLB.com. None will be easy to move, since deGrom and Eovaldi hold full no-trade clauses.

All of this is rumor and reporting, not a signed deal. Follow the schedule on our MLB schedule and results on MLB scores.

Sources: CBS Sports, MLB.com Skubal rumors, MLB.com Hot Stove rumors. Reports from The Athletic, ESPN and others are attributed as relayed by these outlets. Information, not betting or investment advice.