Energy Transfer lifts 2026 EBITDA outlook to $19.7-19.9 billion, eyes $7 billion of 2027 growth spending

Energy Transfer LP raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $19.7 billion to $19.9 billion on Tuesday, up from $18.8 billion to $19.1 billion in August, and said it expects to invest about $7 billion in growth capital in 2027. The figures come from the partnership's third-quarter earnings release, filed with the SEC as an exhibit to an 8-K.

The quarter in numbers

Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30 was $5.03 billion, against $3.84 billion a year earlier, an increase of 31%. Distributable cash flow attributable to partners, as adjusted, was $2.52 billion, up 33% from $1.90 billion. Net income attributable to partners was $1.21 billion ($0.33 per common unit, basic) versus $1.02 billion ($0.28).

Revenue was $37.1 billion, up from $20.0 billion, but that mostly reflects the cost of products sold, which rose to $30.5 billion from $14.6 billion. For a midstream company, revenue swings with fuel and commodity prices and is the wrong number to watch. Growth capital spending in the quarter was $1.30 billion and maintenance capital was $284 million, according to the release.

The number behind the number: Sunoco

The headline 31% is real, but it is not all pipelines. Segment adjusted EBITDA for the Sunoco LP segment rose to $1,049 million from $489 million, a gain of $560 million. Total adjusted EBITDA rose $1,193 million, so Sunoco accounts for about 47% of the increase. The release attributes the segment's margin gain primarily to recent acquisitions. USAC, the compression business, added $38 million, also helped by an acquisition.

The rest of the portfolio grew more modestly: NGL and refined products up $170 million to $1,224 million, crude oil up $125 million to $871 million, midstream up $113 million to $864 million, intrastate transportation up $116 million to $346 million and interstate up $69 million to $500 million.

Two items inside those segments deserve a note. The intrastate gain includes $82 million of realized gas sales "primarily due to early volumes" while the Hugh Brinson pipeline ramps up, plus $36 million of new transportation fees. And the NGL segment's marketing margin included a $143 million benefit from favorable market conditions that the company says it expects to be "partially offset" by $100 million of realized derivative losses in future periods. Neither is a pure fee stream.

Volumes

The partnership reported record intrastate transportation volumes, up 14% (15,759 BBtu/d versus 13,861), and record midstream gathered volumes, up 6% (22,941 BBtu/d versus 21,581). NGL transportation volumes rose 6%, NGL exports 9% and NGL fractionation 5%. Crude oil transportation volumes were nearly flat at 7,107 MBbls/d versus 7,023, and refined product volumes fell to 539 MBbls/d from 601, which the company tied to third-party refinery issues.

What the new guidance implies

Through nine months, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $15,034 million. A full-year range of $19.7 billion to $19.9 billion therefore implies roughly $4.67 billion to $4.87 billion in the fourth quarter, below the third quarter's $5.03 billion. That is our arithmetic from the release's tables, and it assumes the guidance uses the same consolidated measure. The release does not say whether the pending Vaquero acquisition is in the range. The midpoint of the guidance rose by about $850 million, from $18.95 billion to $19.8 billion.

The guidance has now moved up repeatedly this year. According to an Earnings Whispers preview published October 26, the range started the year at $17.45 billion to $17.85 billion and was $18.2 billion to $18.6 billion before August. The same preview put consensus at $0.41 per unit and revenue near $35.6 billion. The release's $0.33 is GAAP net income per unit, and we could not confirm the basis of that consensus figure, so we are not calling it a miss.

The $7 billion 2027 plan

The partnership expects to invest $5.4 billion to $5.6 billion in growth capital this year, and about $7 billion in 2027, roughly 27% more than the 2026 midpoint of $5.5 billion. Projects named in the release:

• Hugh Brinson Pipeline: Phase I entered full service September 1, ahead of schedule. Phase II is on schedule for the first quarter of 2027, and the project is expected to come in under budget.
• South Mississippi Pipeline: a positive final investment decision on a 215-mile, 36-inch line with 1.2 Bcf/d of capacity, at about $1.6 billion. Energy Transfer will likely own 51%, shippers the rest, and service is projected for 2030. A binding open season is under way, and final sizing will follow it.
• Processing and fractionation: the 275 MMcf/d Mustang Draw II plant entered service in October. Bear II, a 200 MMcf/d Delaware Basin plant, is expected in the third quarter of 2027. Frac X, a tenth fractionator at Mont Belvieu with 200 MBbls/d of capacity, is expected in the first half of 2029.
• Power demand contracts: two agreements will supply 150,000 MMBtu/d of firm gas transport from the MRT Pipeline to two power plants under construction in Missouri, effective late 2027 and mid-2028. Growth capital for those facilities is fully reimbursable. A 15-year, 250,000 MMBtu/d Rover agreement with a Marcellus producer began November 1.
• Vaquero Midstream: a roughly $2.6 billion bolt-on acquisition, cash and equity, announced in October and expected to close in the fourth quarter, pending regulatory approval.

Distribution and balance sheet

The quarterly distribution is $0.3425 per unit ($1.37 annualized), more than 3% above a year ago and the twentieth consecutive increase. Distributions to partners for the quarter total $1,181 million against $2,522 million of distributable cash flow, about 2.1 times coverage by our calculation. The retained cash is not far from the quarter's $1.30 billion of growth spending, which shows how the plan is funded. Long-term debt was $68.8 billion at September 30, against $68.3 billion at year-end, net interest expense was $944 million in the quarter, and the revolver had $4.41 billion available. In August the partnership redeemed $900 million of 6.500% Series H preferred units using proceeds from a junior subordinated notes offering.

Who this touches

For gas producers and utilities in Texas, the Southeast and Missouri, the filing is a capacity story: new firm contracts, a pipeline to the Southeast not due until 2030, and plants in Missouri that need gas by 2027 and 2028. For fuel retailers and independent dealers, the Sunoco line is a reminder that its distribution footprint, about 11,000 branded locations according to the release, now drives a large share of the parent's earnings. Traders are likely to watch the fourth-quarter implied step-down and how much of 2027's spending is already backed by contracts, which the release does not break out.

Sources: Energy Transfer Q3 2026 earnings release, SEC EDGAR; Q2 2026 release; Earnings Whispers via Finviz. Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow are non-GAAP measures defined in the release. Coverage, implied fourth quarter and percentage-of-increase figures are Chronicle calculations. This is market information, not investment advice.