Gas falls below $4 for the first time since July: $3.9788, down 39 cents in a month

The national average price of regular gasoline fell to $3.9788 a gallon on Tuesday, November 10, the first reading below $4 since July, according to AAA figures reported by CNBC and OilPrice.com. That is about 17 cents below a week ago and about 39 cents below a month ago.

Why it is falling

CNBC attributes the drop to cheaper crude and to the usual autumn seasonal softness. Brent briefly traded below $90 on Tuesday for the first time since August as President Trump's comments fed hopes of an end to the Iran conflict (our oil report). ING told CNBC that Gulf crude exports have recovered to an estimated 80% to 85% of prewar levels. Bespoke Investment Group noted that gas normally falls at this time of year, so part of the relief is calendar, not news.

Wholesale gasoline has led the way down. Our chart of RBOB futures, the wholesale benchmark, shows them 30.3% below the April 30 peak as of Tuesday, at about $2.63 a gallon in the Yahoo Finance data.

The number behind the number

The pump has fallen less than the wholesale market, and the government's inflation data lags both. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' October report, as CNBC summarised it, showed the gasoline index up only 1% in the month after a 9.1% jump in September, and energy up 0.7% after 5.2% (see our CPI report and where inflation is and is not). October's price level was still high. November's will be lower if pump prices hold, which is the first sign of relief in the data readers will actually see.

Who it helps, in dollars

Take a delivery van, plumber's truck or sales car that covers 1,000 miles a week at 14 miles per gallon. That is about 71.4 gallons a week.

• Month-over-month: 71.4 gallons x $0.39 = about $27.86 a week less per vehicle, or roughly $1,449 a year if the lower price held for 52 weeks.
• Fleet of 10: about $279 a week, or about $14,490 a year, at the same assumptions.
• Week-over-week: 71.4 gallons x $0.17 = about $12.14 a week per vehicle.

These are Chronicle calculations at an assumed 14 mpg and national average prices. Your station, state and mileage will differ, and a diesel fleet should check diesel, which we did not report on here. Mileage reimbursement rates and fuel surcharges that were set when gas was above $4 are the places where the saving can slip away from you: a contractor who added a surcharge in the spring should look at whether it still matches the pump.

Why the Fed is not celebrating

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday that energy shocks may have more persistent effects on inflation than they did before the pandemic. According to CNBC he said energy prices are down from highs of the past week or so but are "still quite elevated relative to the start of the year," and that the ultimate effect on inflation depends on what levels are sustained. Markets are already weighing a December rate hike (what a half-point hike means for a contractor, a restaurant and a trucker). A fall in gas helps the inflation numbers only if it lasts.

What to do

Do nothing dramatic. Gas at $3.98 is still well above where most drivers were at the start of the year, and the drop depends on oil staying under $90. Track your own fuel cost per mile through the end of the month, and revisit any surcharge or mileage rate only if the price holds for several weeks. Travelers can see how this plays into the holiday in our Thanksgiving gas report.

Sources: AAA national average via CNBC and OilPrice.com (Nov. 10, 2026); Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI figures as reported by CNBC; ING and Bespoke Investment Group comments as reported by CNBC; Yahoo Finance (RBOB futures, chart). Van and fleet costs are Chronicle arithmetic. This is market information, not investment advice.